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Question: April Bitcoin Difficulty estimate
>5,000,000 - 6 (7.9%)
>6,000,000 - 10 (13.2%)
>7,000,000 - 10 (13.2%)
>8,000,000 - 16 (21.1%)
>9,000,000 or more - 34 (44.7%)
Total Voters: 76

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leiyplane
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March 18, 2013, 07:02:39 AM
 #1

I think Avalon Batch #1 will all arrive before the end of March. Batch #2 will begin to ship in this month.

BFL goes well, so I can expect BFL start to ship between March and April

So, April Bitcoin Difficulty estimate, you can make a vote.

April is the end GPU Bitcoin mining?
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arklan
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March 19, 2013, 02:19:45 PM
 #2

end of gpu mining? you kidding? with the current price and difficulty, i make .1 btc maybe every five days. currently, thats worth about 5.50 USD. so i'm still making as much as i was when the price was only $5 per btc, despite the reward halving and the difficulty climb. note i have MAYBE 350 mhash.
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March 19, 2013, 02:21:39 PM
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end of gpu mining? you kidding? with the current price and difficulty, i make .1 btc maybe every five days. currently, thats worth about 5.50 USD. so i'm still making as much as i was when the price was only $5 per btc, despite the reward halving and the difficulty climb. note i have MAYBE 350 mhash.

With prices rising new miners will join the club > increasing difficulty even more.

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Cablez
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March 19, 2013, 02:24:06 PM
 #4

I think a more pressing worry is that BTCGuild is getting pretty close to 51% of the network due to Avalon owners.  They should start to spread it around a bit I think.

Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup???   Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right!  No job too hard so PM me for a quote
Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
Korbman
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March 19, 2013, 09:27:41 PM
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I think a more pressing worry is that BTCGuild is getting pretty close to 51% of the network due to Avalon owners.  They should start to spread it around a bit I think.

Very true.

On the other hand, if they do manage to get that far the news of a "51% attack" would surely panic people...probably enough for them to dump coins into the market and plummet the price...giving me a chance to buy up more below $50 again Cheesy

supermine
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March 22, 2013, 11:12:57 AM
 #6

April difficulty will see between 5 and 6 Mio.

The 51% attack must come from a single hasher, no? How could 300+ Miners at BTC Guild attack?

Anyway lot's of teams are shrinking on the Guild due to this "lingering danger" of a 51%. I myself left the Guild as well because of this.

I can feel the other guy with his 300 MHash/sec and 0.1 margin. Myself will mine until my ears bleed, even if there are only a few cents to be mined. People who think ASIC will kill GPU simply have absolutely no idea of the market. Look at ebay, 5970 cards are being sold for up to 250 EUR at the moment. You are lucky if you get some. I'm buying up all the used 5870 at the moment. So ASIC, you can go now and f*ck yourself!

Cablez
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March 22, 2013, 01:15:16 PM
 #7

The 51% attack must come from a single hasher, no? How could 300+ Miners at BTC Guild attack?

In this situation it is not individual miners but a malicious pool operator that could attack with that hash power.  I am not saying they would but because the bitcoin ecosystem is built on faith and confidence that we should avoid any situation that could shake either.

Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup???   Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right!  No job too hard so PM me for a quote
Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
Dexter770221
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March 22, 2013, 03:06:58 PM
 #8

And why Eluthria would like to do that? 5% from 50% is 2.5% from total network power. Monthly it's 100800*2.5% = 2520 BTC! It's his salary for maintain server and pool. Destroing this means bye bye to 176k$ salary, at current exchange rate...

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Khertan
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March 22, 2013, 03:15:30 PM
 #9

April difficulty will see between 5 and 6 Mio.


Estimated   6060452 in 414 blks
At 9.5 block by hours ...

it ll be before april Smiley

And btcguild have 38% currently

Cablez
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March 22, 2013, 03:21:42 PM
 #10

And why Eluthria would like to do that? 5% from 50% is 2.5% from total network power. Monthly it's 100800*2.5% = 2520 BTC! It's his salary for maintain server and pool. Destroing this means bye bye to 176k$ salary, at current exchange rate...

It is not his payout that is the concern, it is the break of faith in the community as a whole that could have devastating consequences.  He is already aware and looking to mitigate anyway so it will be a moot point hopefully.

Tired of substandard power distribution in your ASIC setup???   Chris' Custom Cablez will get you sorted out right!  No job too hard so PM me for a quote
Check my products or ask a question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=74397.0
eleuthria
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March 22, 2013, 04:28:48 PM
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And why Eluthria would like to do that? 5% from 50% is 2.5% from total network power. Monthly it's 100800*2.5% = 2520 BTC! It's his salary for maintain server and pool. Destroing this means bye bye to 176k$ salary, at current exchange rate...

It is not his payout that is the concern, it is the break of faith in the community as a whole that could have devastating consequences.  He is already aware and looking to mitigate anyway so it will be a moot point hopefully.

Chiming in.  Yes, I'm looking at ways to prevent the pool from hitting the magic numbers that will frighten the community.  Looking at other pool growth in the last week or so, I'm hopeful it will sort itself out.  But I am prepared to kill off the getwork potion of the pool with very short notice, which would shave about 15% of the pool speed off, assuming they don't immediately upgrade to Stratum.

As for my income, yes, BTC Guild is making a lot right now (more than I would have ever expected).  Just note that half the pool is at 3% fee PPLNS (also pays tx fees), and both PPLNS and PPS pay for orphaned blocks, so it's closer to ~3% than ~5%.


On thread topic:  I'm expecting to see 10m by the end of April.  We're going to skip 5m entirely and go straight for 6m this adjustment phase, and this is just the beginning of the ASIC era.

RIP BTC Guild, April 2011 - June 2015
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