Halving event: expectation vs. reality

[shinratensei_]

I was told a few times that, when halving is super close/already happened, the price would increase significantly.
Now that the halving event is probably 5 hours or so from now, what can you say about the current price? It's still hovering at around $650 despite the imminent event.

Right now, I'm disappointed simply because so many people say that the price would increase, but my mood may change if something significant happens (pissed if going down, happy when going up).

the price doesn't change instantly, dude. just wait for a few weeks later or even months to see the real impact of this halving. keep patient.

THat's right from first i not sure the price will going up for instantly. but a lot of people it's not patience about this and always keeping their minds if bitcoin price will increase for instantly. but in fact we know about the reality.

[bL4nkcode]

Are you still disappointed with the current price right now ($658) compare before its only $400+. All we need to do is hold dont sell yet just and see the price will increase. But if almost bitcoin holders will going to sell well thats not impossible the price will decrease this time.

[7788bitcoin]

I was told a few times that, when halving is super close/already happened, the price would increase significantly.
Now that the halving event is probably 5 hours or so from now, what can you say about the current price? It's still hovering at around $650 despite the imminent event.

Right now, I'm disappointed simply because so many people say that the price would increase, but my mood may change if something significant happens (pissed if going down, happy when going up).

You just have to look at the 1st reward halving. Nothing happened. The real rally only happened months after the reward halved. So the show has just started- the real supply drop will gradually force an increase in price.

However, please don't let the price affect your mood- it is bad for health and roller coasters happen a lot in bitcoin.

[Alanay]

You are just stupid. No offences buddy, sorry but you are. Sad but true.

Not completely, BTC can still go up enough to make it worth investing now. Don't forget a lot of large companies are accepting BTC now, they will do everything they can to keep it stable.

Also, if the majority of us hold our Bitcoin over the next couple of months we can see an even more dramatic rise when miners increase the price of their BTC for sale.

With that said, it's not impossible for Bitcoin to fall far and eventually fall down the ranks of crypto-currencies. Just extremely unlikely given people's and business's investments.

[YTBitcoin]

I have heard about halving when the price of bitcoin was at $380 (about 4 or 5 months ago) and at that time everyone was saying that bitcoin price will be doubled at the time of halving , and today I am seeing that the price of bitcoin is around $650 so it happened as was expected.

[franky1]

I have heard about halving when the price of bitcoin was at $380 (about 4 or 5 months ago) and at that time everyone was saying that bitcoin price will be doubled at the time of halving , and today I am seeing that the price of bitcoin is around $650 so it happened as was expected.

not quite accurate..
difficulty decreases earnings every 2 weeks

imagine you are a miner
its not like you are getting 0.083 every fortnight of late 2015-early 2016 to get 1btc in february at $380
instead each fortnight would have looked more like
0.14 september
0.126
0.1134 october
0.10206
0.091854 november
0.0826686
0.07440174 december
0.06696157
0.06026541 january
0.05423887
0.04881498 february
0.04393348
(total 1btc)

where last year (september 2015) you were like woo hoo 0.14btc at $240 thats $33 for 2 weeks work
then in february 24 weeks later(12 difficulty changes) ....urghh 0.0439btc at $380 thats $16.70 for 2 weeks work


in february you were not shouting woo hoo 0.0439btc = $66 (thanking halving speculation)
in february you were not even shouting woo hoo 0.0439btc = $33

now imagine the 4-5 months from february to now.
0.03954014 march
0.03558612
0.03202751 april
0.02882476
0.02594228 may
0.02334805
0.02101325 june
0.01891192
0.01702073 july

march 1btc was $415 so at first (ignoring the past) you were like woo hoo $16 for 2 weeks work
and before the halving even at over $650, you were like urghh $11 for 2 weeks work

and this next fortnight you will be like urghhhh $5.50 for 2 weeks work (if the price remains below ~$650)

so no where at all has bitcoins halving been "priced in" as some are saying as no where has mining been double profits

if it was double profitable and the price not only went UP due to difficulty(which it hasnt quite). but also the halving speculation would have pushed it even further.... meaning that right now 0.017 would be worth OVER $66
so that the next fornight where the bitcoin income is half of 0.17 would still net $33

so because this is not the case.. we have not yet seen significant price rises to stay ontop of difficulty OR/AND the halving
but it will come.. it just takes time

in short. the price changes previously are speculation in regards to roughly the difficulty if you take a wide longterm view.. not the halving
https://blockchain.info/charts/difficulty?timespan=180days

[mkc]

I am very disapointed because I expected 800 per coin after halving. When British voted exit, I thought this will bring instability for the world and move price higher. Did not happen either.

[bitdumper]

maybe the bitcoin market did not worked like the previous halving but lets wait for a month before getting to a final decision hope the price will increase in some weeks. but i am sure about one thing many new sites will be launched after this month because the are mainly afraid of  halving effect.

[nanonymousx]

Disappointed, yeah.
I was also expecting over 1k, I mean, now a day, Bitcoin is treated as safe heaven asset, and halving makes it even more precious.

[pooya87]

well, the expectation about halving was always a big rise to the moon but i don't know why but people expected this to happen before or during halving! it would be like expecting the ground to get wet before it rains! and so far the rise was more than enough to make a profit and there is no indication of reverse movement either.

[TGD]

We already know that the price go high with a few weeks later. And don't expect more, the good things is bitcoin now at flat. If it rise ita good bt if not we'll accept it the price already high @200$ last year it's now 650$ not bad I think.

[drwtsn32]

I think you guys are getting it wrong.
It won't happen in a second you know. Give it some time.

[Enotche]

Yes, many were subjected to panic and HYIP, in the hope that the price will increase dramatically. Or that before Halving people will massively buying Bitcoins in hopes of enrichment. But reality has shown that the main driving force has been the price of China, even the RMB devaluation in China and developments in the UK. HYIP has almost no effect.
Let's wait for symptoms Halving effect.

[xuan87]

I expect there will be a massive selling, and will see the fluctuate price, but up until now its quite stable, still waiting for the after effect, just hope the price wont go down

[severaldetails]

I expect some selling as well. So I do not buy anything right now.
But I expected a price increase shortly befor halving as well, that did not happen.
The only thing that is left to do for me now is to watch the developement carefully and then draw my conclusions.
And use those informations in 5 years, during the next halving. Maybe in 6 years.

[romero121]

Expected an increase around $800, because weeks back the price was near to it. On the day after halving we haven't reached high but gradual increase might take price higher towards the end of the year.

[kryptqnick]

I think the real effect of halving will show up in two or three days.
When the miners have sorted things out how much they still earn for their coins in regard to electricity cost.
Everything befor that is speculation.

I hope it won't show up.. I want BTC to continue raising in price and think that it will start to do so in a week.

[Hellacopter]

I expect that the Bitcoin's price will increase a little bit after some weeks of the halving event. For now the price is quite stable or at least it will not rise highly nowadays.

[CoinBreader]

I was told a few times that, when halving is super close/already happened, the price would increase significantly.
Now that the halving event is probably 5 hours or so from now, what can you say about the current price? It's still hovering at around $650 despite the imminent event.

Right now, I'm disappointed simply because so many people say that the price would increase, but my mood may change if something significant happens (pissed if going down, happy when going up).

Nothing will happen in a blink of an eye, this what is happening now its a pump and after that it would come a shake out , same old story, but then again time will show... just keep investing what you afford to lose..and that is my golden rule!

[kingorbust]

so basically absolutely nothing happened. What an over hyped event.