Mining in 20 years time

[piloder]

Me thinks miners would get most of their income from transaction fees...

The price of bitcoins would be so high that most people will trade in satoshis instead...

If the bitcoin block size rises to 16MB in the next 10 years, the transaction fee will be higher than the block reward.

[lexuz]

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

To be honest i've think about it too, i want to know what happen with bitcoin if no miner active or all bitcoin has done mined. so we never get confirmation because no miner active?

[bit1]

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

To be honest i've think about it too, i want to know what happen with bitcoin if no miner active or all bitcoin has done mined. so we never get confirmation because no miner active?

On 20 years many thing can happen, it is too technologically speaking  at the pace things are happening.

[Betwrong]

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

Miners falling off would mean decreasing difficulty, so that shouldn't be a problem over a long enough time frame (i.e. difficulty matching up with the decreased hash rate). Besides, it is assumed that after almost all coins are mined, miners will earn by collecting transaction fees...

What actually happens then is hard to predict, though

That's what I like in this game - the less people left the more they win, so it's impossible to stop it. And yes, if Bitcoin will be used by many (and it definitely will be) the amount of the transaction fees will be huge.

[LoyceV]

There will be no miners in 20 years because subsidy is to small to pay mining and bitcoin developers don't allow enough on chain transactions to maintain enough mining to keep the network safe, so bitcoin will be irrelevant or forked into POS.

They can always cancel halving in the interim (which is a must-do thing if they want Bitcoin to go on)

The transaction fee is quite high now. It is almost 1 bitcoin at some blocks. In the next few years, it will be even higher.

That is related to block size.
If there is consensus to increase block size, there will be less competition and less transaction fees.

If I get it right, this means that miners are not particularly interested in increasing the block size? In other words, that's the reason (one of) why it hasn't been increased so far?

This is my interpretation too. Miners don't benefit directly from larger blocks. But larger blocks are needed to allow more people to use Bitcoin, and more users will ultimately lead to a higher price, which benefits miners.

I don't think that miners collectively really care so much for future income, especially if it means sacrificing current revenue. In other words, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

I didn't realize this before, but indeed, it makes sense. So we're stuck with small blocks because miners are short sighted focussing on todays income only.
Mining hardware becomes obsolete very fast, caused by an increase in difficulty. This is an extra reason for miners not to think ahead much.
I used to think Satoshi covered all major parts of Bitcoin, but this may be something he didn't anticipate.

[deisik]

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

Miners falling off would mean decreasing difficulty, so that shouldn't be a problem over a long enough time frame (i.e. difficulty matching up with the decreased hash rate). Besides, it is assumed that after almost all coins are mined, miners will earn by collecting transaction fees...

What actually happens then is hard to predict, though

That's what I like in this game - the less people left the more they win, so it's impossible to stop it. And yes, if Bitcoin will be used by many (and it definitely will be) the amount of the transaction fees will be huge.

It all depends. For example, it depends on the block size. If it gets increased, the transaction fees may decline (as far as I understand it). Further, more people using Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean the growth in fees revenue flow either, since the latter primarily depends on the number of transactions, not the number of people transacting...

Though I agree that there should be some positive correlation between the former (number of transactions) and the latter (number of people transacting)

[deisik]

I don't think that miners collectively really care so much for future income, especially if it means sacrificing current revenue. In other words, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

I didn't realize this before, but indeed, it makes sense. So we're stuck with small blocks because miners are short sighted focussing on todays income only.
Mining hardware becomes obsolete very fast, caused by an increase in difficulty. This is an extra reason for miners not to think ahead much.
I used to think Satoshi covered all major parts of Bitcoin, but this may be something he didn't anticipate.

The major issue with Bitcoin is that it is highly inflexible in respect to the process of decision making. On the one hand, it is good that changes are hard to make (that helps keep its value). On the other hand, when such changes are urgent and essential to Bitcoin long-term well-being, this turns into nuisance...

In this aspect, Bitcoin leaves much to be desired

[thejaytiesto]

In 20 years Bitcoin will be anywhere from around 100,000 dollars to 1,000,000 dollars per coin, which means the mining reward will be enough so it's not a problem. This looks unrealistic to a lot of people which is why few people will become really rich. Most people will sell along the way and less and less people will hold whole BTCs.

[Umotand]

In 20 years, there might be between 20 to 100 million people using the bitcoin regularly. It will become a reserve currency.

[chiajw1]

It is seriously hard to predict what will happen in 20 years later. Taking account of the tremendous variables, inflation, main currency at that time, how much transaction for every block, fees for every transaction, electricity cost, speed of hashes, competitors, to name a few, Anything is possible for this time span.

But in my opinion there will be much more transaction in every block and every block mined will get more transaction fees. The transaction fee will be much higher than the new bitcoin mined. Say that 1 bitcoin is equilvalent to 2500 USD not taking account of inflation, maybe some will still continue to mine, not for profitability but to contribute to the system.

[Doamader]

Im pretty sure into 20 years bitcoin will reach atleast 2000dollars, and the fees will be enought to keep the miners active, as already been said the mining will be over around 2100. Thats something the core should start worrying about, as this will be a problem on the short time.

[Umotand]

Im pretty sure into 20 years bitcoin will reach atleast 2000dollars, and the fees will be enought to keep the miners active, as already been said the mining will be over around 2100. Thats something the core should start worrying about, as this will be a problem on the short time.

In 20 years, the bitcoin price will be at least $200,000. the mining fee will be larger than the block reward.

[oceanriver]

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

it is hard to predict future like this but i am pretty sure that there still will be people that will want to mine bitcoins not matter what, or their price will be large

[Digitalbitcoin]

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

it is hard to predict future like this but i am pretty sure that there still will be people that will want to mine bitcoins not matter what, or their price will be large

True,

As time going difficulty level of mining blocks for bitcoins is increasing. And as per halving already price of bitcoin mining block reward is set to 12.5 BTC.

But as predefined price of bitcoin will rise more than whatever is current, so mining of bitcoin can be affordable for huge rig owner. Small units will not possible to get good ROI with mining.

And on more important things as maximum blocks will be solved transaction fee for bitcoin will be higher. So that will also advantage to miner for getting reward for verification.

[groll]

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

It is not impossible to mine bitcoins even after 20 years. Technological advancement are a step ahead on what's to come. Though at present it is hard to imagine but the future holds the answer to the problems that we thought today to have no solutions.

Quantum computers of high calibers in my own opinion or a more powerful computer will replace old units in mining bitcoin which is more efficient in mining bitcoins even in the future.

[Doamader]

In 20 years another halving will occur making a lot pressure to bitcoin to grow, then those miners should take the fee as there rewards, or something must be made to avoid the lack of security that the hash will open if people stop the miners.

[Lumada]

In 20 years another halving will occur making a lot pressure to bitcoin to grow, then those miners should take the fee as there rewards, or something must be made to avoid the lack of security that the hash will open if people stop the miners.

In 20 years, the having will have no effect at all as the transaction fee will be higher than the block reward.

[CoinBreader]

i think in 20years we all go back to USB miners because it would be no profit for the power whores asic , and every btc owner will support the network with this little miners and here it comes the saying "That history repeats her self " 
Lower hashrate lower diff so USB miner will get to work

[deisik]

99.21875% will be mined in 20 years time. If electricity isn't very cheap by then and/or if bitcoin isn't worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, it's hard to imagine anybody wanting to mine then. How will transactions then be verified?

It is not impossible to mine bitcoins even after 20 years. Technological advancement are a step ahead on what's to come. Though at present it is hard to imagine but the future holds the answer to the problems that we thought today to have no solutions.

Quantum computers of high calibers in my own opinion or a more powerful computer will replace old units in mining bitcoin which is more efficient in mining bitcoins even in the future.

As far as I understand the concept of Bitcoin mining, the speed with which bitcoins are mined doesn't depend on technology. In other words, it will be same on any equipment...

Until all 21M coins have been mined, of course

[Carlsen]

There will be no miners in 20 years because subsidy is to small to pay mining and bitcoin developers don't allow enough on chain transactions to maintain enough mining to keep the network safe, so bitcoin will be irrelevant or forked into POS.

That could really happen.
I somehow see as well a problem with the size of the blockchain coming.
Maybe it's getting too big to be shared by p2p. At least for the private miners.