Things getting interesting once we past $100

[MatTheCat]

From reading through this thread, looks like a whole bunch of you are going to be still 'all in' when the day comes when whoever is manipulating the Bitcoin price astronomically high, decides to pull the rug out from under its feet.

If I had kept the many Bitcoins that I have bought in the past two years (I spend em all on SR), then I would be surely looking at a profit taking strategy right now, of course whilst keeping some/plenty skin in the game, as who knows how much higher this dragon shall fly before the inevitable occurs.

[SgtSpike]

From reading through this thread, looks like a whole bunch of you are going to be still 'all in' when the day comes when whoever is manipulating the Bitcoin price astronomically high, decides to pull the rug out from under its feet.

If I had kept the many Bitcoins that I have bought in the past two years (I spend em all on SR), then I would be surely looking at a profit taking strategy right now, of course whilst keeping some/plenty skin in the game, as who knows how much higher this dragon shall fly before the inevitable occurs.

OTOH, there's 8,000 people still waiting to be verified at Mt Gox who want to buy Bitcoins, so perhaps there's too many people standing on the rug for it to be pulled out?

[MatTheCat]

OTOH, there's 8,000 people still waiting to be verified at Mt Gox who want to buy Bitcoins, so perhaps there's too many people standing on the rug for it to be pulled out?

Yup, my brother is one of them. I have spoken to him about the potential of Bitcoin for the past couple of years. As I explained to him the huge potential of a totally anonymous means of electronic payment, currently being underpinned by mostly black market transactions, but with the potential to grow into countless areas of economic life, not least of all money laundering, tax evasion (something every self employed person is up to to some extent, unless they are fkn stupid). With a strong and steadily developing base in the more underground areas of economic life, this would render Bitcoins a reliably and highly liquid (easily exchangeable for local currencies), means of doing business, storing wealth, and hiding wealth. In short, this could be huge. Back then however, he never paid much attention, preferring to have his money stagnate in precious metals or actually lose his money in various mining stocks.

A few weeks ago, when Bitcoin was sitting at around $45, he was on the phone to me wanting to know everything about acquiring Bitcoins. I gave him the lowdown on what he needed to do and all the rest of it, but advised him that the recent explosion in Bitcoin price was not being caused by a rapid expansion of real world Bitcoin economies, but rather was a speculative bubble, possibly being driven by just a small handful of people. I reminded him of the Bitcoin crash of June 2011, whereby some hacker alledgedly broke into Mt Gox accounts and triggered a mass of sell orders, and also stated that the Bitcoin market place was in the grander scheme of things, was still a miniscule market place where a relatively small volume of trade could send the price hurtling in either direction. I did enough to make him consider the risk of £20K of his capital going up in flames and put him off investing. As we speak, the price of Bitcoin has more than doubled, so my advice actually cost him more than £20K! He is now in the process of setting up a Mt Gox account as well as various other Bitcoin trading accounts.

Obviously, my brother is not buying Bitcoins in order to use them to make real economic transactions with, but rather as a means of speculating with. In order for his plan to be successful, he is relying that people in the future, will be increasingly willing to pay for their Bitcoins than he has paid. These types of people will fall into two categories:

A) Consumers like myself who need Bitcoin for certain online transactions

B) Speculators who are willing to buy in at exorbitant prices in the belief that there will be people even more stupid than themselves willing to pay even more somewhere down the line.

Obviously category A, which is the most stable and price insensitive purchasers of Bitcoins (typical Bitcoin transactions on Silk Road is over and done within a few hours and there is no other choice but to use Bitcoin), represents a very insignificant fraction of the total Bitcoin market. I have no official data or figures on this, but I am on Silk Road a lot and on their forums a lot. The place is growing, but certainly not exploding exponentially upwards. Therefore, the market that is driving Bitcoin up, is mostly of a speculative nature. With the underlying market which forms the basis for real Bitcoin use as it was intended to be used still in a very undeveloped state, this more or less spells unavoidable doom at some point down the line, regardless of whether there is a single hand manipulating the price up, that is having the effect of initiating a herd stampede into the best performing asset of the 21st century, or whether this herd stampede has just kind of naturally transpired as most people here like to believe. If anyone disputes this, perhaps they would care to highlight an example of a price bubble based on speculative investment, that didnt one day just simply implode?

Whilst my brother may turn his 20K, into 100K or even more, even at todays prices, he will only reap the rewards if he exits in a timely fashion. If he holds onto his Bitcoins indefinitely, he will witness the value of them turn to dust, perhaps relying on a dead cat bounce to reclaw back some value, then watch them turn back to dust, before the price discovery finally relies on the category A Bitcoin buyers, providing the volatility in the Bitcoin price hasn't totally cannibalised the real goods and services marketplace that forms the foundations of it having any value at all.

[SgtSpike]

You seem very certain of an eventual crash MatTheCat.  Why?  And are you willing to bet on it?

[MatTheCat]

You seem very certain of an eventual crash MatTheCat.  Why?  And are you willing to bet on it?

Because I know without a doubt that the exponential off the scale price increases are in no way related to the increase in the adoption of Bitcoin for real world transactions. As with any of the previous bubbles anyone could care to name, we have an elephant balancing on a beach ball, with ever increasing numbers of people jumping on the elephants back.

If my bet could stay in place indefinitely, without me having to specify a certain time frame, then I would bet my soul in it.

In the meantime, I would be more inclined to bet on the price going up. I always intended to put £1K or something into Bitcoins. But at the time I had the free capital to do so, I considered Bitcoins to be too expensive. It was £8 a pop! Believing that the demand for Bitcoins tied closely into the demand for drugs (SR), I was waiting on a pull back to come. I suspected the pull back would come after the festive party season. Obviously, I called the market horribly wrong as there is obviously a force at work in Bitcoin that I hadn't taken into consideration.

I am currently stuck in the middle of the sea on a seismic vessel, so wont be in any position to make any Bitcoin purchases until May. If I do end up entering the market on a speculative basis however, I would be doing so in full knowledge that I was jumping on an elephants back, that was balancing on a beach ball.

[MikeH]

I wouldn't be tying value to current adoption - most people getting on board won't be going all in and will be happy to let their investment sit for 5+ years in the hope that it becomes mainstream.

It's only volatile due to large holders offloading some coin 'just in case'.

[IggySe7ven]

Matt the Cat....  what about the reason that maybe bitcoin is going up is because the economy is getting worse and worse and more and more people are trusting the government  and banks( especially in europe) less and less with their money and are investing money into bitcoin, especially after what happened in Cyprus. So if more and more people are puting their trust in bitcoin in my view it only strengthens it and makes it more legit and stable as a mainstream currency.

[alexeft]

Matt the Cat....  what about the reason that maybe bitcoin is going up is because the economy is getting worse and worse and more and more people are trusting the government  and banks( especially in europe) less and less with their money and are investing money into bitcoin, especially after what happened in Cyprus. So if more and more people are puting their trust in bitcoin in my view it only strengthens it and makes it more legit and stable as a mainstream currency.

That is what is happening IMHO.

[f4tal1ty]

And as the Euro crysis isnt getting better, but actully becoming worse, maybe with the biggest disasters still to come, the benefit of Bitcoin should continue.

[johnniewalker]

I bet almost literally (if you "ran the numbers") buying Silver and Gold would be your best bet. Anyone will buy gold and silver, always=CASHOUT
oh, and if you buy precious metals maybe you'd like to wait some time while their value climbs

[Explodicle]

I bet almost literally (if you "ran the numbers") buying Silver and Gold would be your best bet. Anyone will buy gold and silver, always=CASHOUT
oh, and if you buy precious metals maybe you'd like to wait some time while their value climbs

That depends. If you're worried that the government will take your money, then bitcoin is better. I don't know if it ever happened in Cyprus but once in the USA the government forced everyone to sell their gold for a shitty price. They could do that again with gold, but not with bitcoin because it's much easier to hide.

Of course, you'll see a similar bias on goldbug forums.

[MatTheCat]

Matt the Cat....  what about the reason that maybe bitcoin is going up is because the economy is getting worse and worse and more and more people are trusting the government  and banks( especially in europe) less and less with their money and are investing money into bitcoin, especially after what happened in Cyprus. So if more and more people are puting their trust in bitcoin in my view it only strengthens it and makes it more legit and stable as a mainstream currency.

I realise that this is a very popular argument.......amongst those who don't understand finance and/or just haven't spent very long thinking about the issue.

If I could pay my rent, fill my car up, buy groceries, buy electronic equipment etc with Bitcoin, then I might give this line of reasoning more consideration. If Bitcoin had been around for a decade, and after a wobbly start, settled into a smooth and steady upward bulltrend, or had even spent a decade trading horizontally (adjusted for inflation), I may also take this line of reasoning more seriously.

As it stands, Bitcoin has been around for little more than 3 years and the only goods of a mainstream interest that I can use it to buy, are narcotics and other fringe interest black/grey market goods and services, and even then, Bitcoin accounts for an utterly insignificant fraction of total global volume in these areas. Silk Road, undoubtedly the most well known and therefore the biggest Bitcoin trading hub, is like a locally owned minimarket taking a bytesized nibble out of the same pie that Walmart and co are feeding on. Furthermore, Bitcoin must surely count as the most volatile asset on the planet, Which as I have said various times in posts on this forum, kind of rules out it developing into the currency that it was intended to be anytime soon.

Also, if there were any danger of Bitcoin developing into the 'real deal'. It would be taken out by the established powers one way or the other and/or subjugated, controlled, and held well in its place, just as the precious metals are.

This has been undoubtedly best capital accumulating opportunities for the 99% in history, and who knows how much longer it will continue to be so. But nobody should delude themselves about the nature of this beast.

With only a minute fraction of real world transactions underpinning the value of Bitcoins, such explosive upside price action can only be described as a massive asset bubble.

[MatTheCat]

You obviously don't know much about bitcoin, about the implications of it, about what it means for the economy and you certainly try to apply economic concepts that do not apply to bitcoin as the factors involving bitcoin are quite different from what you know.
[/quote]

I have read your posts in mindtomatter's 'Central Bank tasked with destroying Bitcoin' thread.

You sir, are a Bitcoin zealot. Arrogant, and with your focus set on only one very narrow realm of possibility, totally closed off to the universe of possibilities outwith your own narrow dogma. Your arguments against mindtomatter in the aforementioned thread amounted to nothing more than stating what your will regarding Bitcoin was. And then insulting him when he failed to agree with you.

Now, who knows. Perhaps you will just happen to be right. Perhaps Bitcoin will go to $1000, $10000, $1000000 per coin, then just hit a happy equilibrium of supply and demand at that price discovery level. If that were to be the case, then it would be down to some completely hidden X factor that neither you, nor I, are currently aware off.

I hope that many of the 99%'ers on here can do quite well for themselves in this blatant asset bubble, but somehow, unless you can lose your concrete paradigms, I suspect that you will be all in to the very bitter end....and it will be a bitter end.

[MatTheCat]

I'm tired of people trying to find silly ways to bring bitcoin down. I accept proper ideas, ideas with well stated fundaments. I obviously dislike ideas that come from ignorant people trying to sound like they have a clue.
I am not the source of truth, if I see an idea that is well thought, that has clear evidence and it's really stupid I will still give it a thought. The idea about the central banks was complete and utter bullshit and he, the OP, was stating that he won based on arguments that many people was in disagreement with, me included.
As far as your statement. Where have you seen a deflationary currency with the features that bitcoin posses? Where have you been a currency this new having this kind of success in such a short time? Exactly, you haven't therefore, you can't compare.
Whatever you think you know about the financial and economic aspect of bitcoin is irrelevant because it's moved by different rules and factors.
I'm arrogant when I see ignorant people come to the forums and make statements so idiotic and ignorant that I just feel contempt for those people. Read the "Running of the bears" post and you'll understand what I'm talking about... you can skip the whole TA in the first post which is bullshit.

Calm down dear!

Me and the other several tens of thousands Silk Road customers (if this doesn't actually destroy Silk Road) will still be there to buy your Bitcoins for $2 a pop after the JP Morgue or whoever have decided that they have hit maximum saturation for their pump n dump scam. When that time will be? Who knows! Could Bitcoin go up another 700% between now and then? Possibly. But if you dont wisen up, you are going to get hit right in between the eyes by what is coming.

[MikeH]

I don't see a bubble, I just see a willingness of people to take a small punt for potentially very high returns and we're only scratching the surface of those willing to do that.

[Wekkel]

It doesn't matter whether BTC goes beyond $10,000, remains $100 or goes back to $0.01: it still remains a good vehicle to make unrestrained International payments. Unless banks figure out a way to incorporate btc's strengths into fiat money systems, BTC will remain to have a place.

Capital will go where it is most favoured. BTC just shows this happening.

[qiuness]

i sit here looking at the price go up and up...also thinking how stupid i was to sell my modest 150 coins @ 45... for some it's not a lot of money, but damn.. right now i`m down to ~45 coins if i were to buy, would doesn't make any sens anymore

[Explodicle]

I realise that this is a very popular argument.......amongst those who don't understand finance and/or just haven't spent very long thinking about the issue.

We hear lots of popular ill-considered arguments here too, so I think it best for everyone arguing to show some modesty.

If I could ... buy electronic equipment etc with Bitcoin, then I might give this line of reasoning more consideration.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Electronics

Also, if there were any danger of Bitcoin developing into the 'real deal'. It would be taken out by the established powers one way or the other and/or subjugated, controlled, and held well in its place, just as the precious metals are.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#Bitcoins_will_be_shut_down_by_the_government_just_like_Liberty_Dollars_were
The whole POINT of bitcoin is that the p2p model avoids subjugation. Despite the government's best efforts from Napster to Megaupload, p2p file sharing is still going strong.

[MatTheCat]

The whole POINT of bitcoin is that the p2p model avoids subjugation. Despite the government's best efforts from Napster to Megaupload, p2p file sharing is still going strong.

Pirate Bay offers links to torrents, that put bits and pieces of data together from potentially millions of computers all around the world, Napster offered a free p2p service and although Megaupload was a (vast) profit making company, as far as I am aware it had no shares listed on any stock exchange.

Whilst two of the above internet phenomenena have been taken down and/or controlled, plenty other alternatives have sprung up in their place (if they never existed already). Whilst the creators of Pirate Bay may well be doing time, the Pirate Bay lives on and the only way to kill it would be to kill the internet (as it presently exists) altogether. Bitcoin of course, mostly resembles the Pirate Bay model, so it will be nigh on impossible to take it down by conventional means.

As mindtomatter has already extensively covered in his 'Central Bank' thread, it would however be a piece of piss to sabotage Bitcoin by means of a technical pump n dump attack. Whichever Wall St bank or group of banks need not even lose money in doing so, as once they pump enough capital into the market sufficient enough to cause a hysterical herd stampede into the coin, they can in a measured manner, start extracting their coin at great profit, thanks to the flock of fools queuing up outside MtGox, with big bundles of fiat in their fists. THIS SH!T HAPPENS ALL THE TIME! And it is happening now.

I was a relatively early user of Bitcoins (1st Silk Road purchase made in late 2010), and enthused to my brother about the whole concept and the massive potential they held as a game changer on a global scale. At the time, he was completely dismissive and couldn't give two craps. Recently, he has been at me constantly trying to get more info on Bitcoins, what they are, how to use them etc etc. I have to admit here that when Bitcoins were at $45, I put him off. I stated that the underlying market of real transactions that underpins the whole viability of Bitcoin, is becoming an exponentially tiny portion of the entire Bitcoin market, and that this is a bubble of the riskiest kind. I still believe this, although the bubble has trebled in size then, and my brother has lost a projected £20K worth of profit due to listening to me. Anyways, he has now wired £10K into his newly established Mt Gox account, the money will take 4 days to arrive. He still does not understand:

What a Bitcoin is
What a Bitcoin wallet is.
What the Bitcoin Dat file is.
What a Bitcoin client is.
etc etc.

This is the calibre of newcomers rushing into the Bitcoin market, and thus helping prop up the already hyperinflated prices. No enthusiasm for the concept of the coin or understanding of it, and certainly no means of ever using them as the currency that they are supposed to be. He is motivated only by the opportunity to make vast profits. And of course, first sign of a pull back, eating into any profits he has made, and he will be out of there, as he has no other use or purpose for the coins, other than to make a profit on the fiat currency he is putting in. I imagine that most new money coming into Bitcoin right now is coming from people like him.

[Kazu]

So now that there's another "bubble" at full speed, I'm reaching a point where crossing $100 will mean that me as well as others are making some serious money (I'll leave up to you to define what serious money is)
My concern now is, what if i want to sell and withdraw the money to my US Bank Account.
How do I avoid uncle sam to stick its hand in my cookie jar and takes the tax share?
What if I don't report it?
What if I transfer small amounts ($1000 at a time ever week or so..)
Any accountants in the forum to help me do the laundry?

Liberty Reserve. Thats what I did (a mite too early, I might add).