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Author Topic: Why is nobody shorting BTC  (Read 4421 times)
Mosper
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March 20, 2013, 05:33:42 PM
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I was just noticing that nobody seems to be taking up short positions on BTC here. Does everyone believe that from here on out it's only going up? Have I been going about my loan seeking the wrong way by targeting it to business interests? I am mostly interested in BTC loans because of the fact that it is going to suffer another crash (probably not all the way down and probably not down forever but down none the less) and I think BTC is a perfect opportunity for taking up a short position. I can end up funding my businesses for a fraction of what they actually cost. You would think if everyone is so confident things are only going to get better they'd be jumping over each other to take up this offer. I'd even be willing to do something with 6 months to a year and 20% interest with an option to payoff at any time because I know for certain I will have the opportunity to get out from the under loan for less than the interest will cost me.

Me? I'm just the cynical voice floating in the sea of unchecked optimism.
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John (John K.)
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March 20, 2013, 05:42:58 PM
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I was just noticing that nobody seems to be taking up short positions on BTC here. Does everyone believe that from here on out it's only going up? Have I been going about my loan seeking the wrong way by targeting it to business interests? I am mostly interested in BTC loans because of the fact that it is going to suffer another crash (probably not all the way down and probably not down forever but down none the less) and I think BTC is a perfect opportunity for taking up a short position. I can end up funding my businesses for a fraction of what they actually cost. You would think if everyone is so confident things are only going to get better they'd be jumping over each other to take up this offer. I'd even be willing to do something with 6 months to a year and 20% interest with an option to payoff at any time because I know for certain I will have the opportunity to get out from the under loan for less than the interest will cost me.
The only problem with your loan is the risks involved in lending to you. Ever wondered why some loans seem to get filled in a blinking, and some don't?

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March 20, 2013, 05:46:41 PM
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I was just noticing that nobody seems to be taking up short positions on BTC here. Does everyone believe that from here on out it's only going up? Have I been going about my loan seeking the wrong way by targeting it to business interests? I am mostly interested in BTC loans because of the fact that it is going to suffer another crash (probably not all the way down and probably not down forever but down none the less) and I think BTC is a perfect opportunity for taking up a short position. I can end up funding my businesses for a fraction of what they actually cost. You would think if everyone is so confident things are only going to get better they'd be jumping over each other to take up this offer. I'd even be willing to do something with 6 months to a year and 20% interest with an option to payoff at any time because I know for certain I will have the opportunity to get out from the under loan for less than the interest will cost me.
The only problem with your loan is the risks involved in lending to you. Ever wondered why some loans seem to get filled in a blinking, and some don't?
I understand that side of things just fine however I find the idea that post count=confidence is a bit absurd considering the history of loaning to established members has tended to go.  Your jump from new/low post count to risk is a perceived one and not actual.

I am more concerned with discussing shorting in this thread though I would be happy to discuss anything about my loan in the thread for it if you'd like. I am not shy and I don't bite.

edit: I think I'm actually the kind of investment you should be looking for as I came here 100% with business in mind and have been open about that from the jump. It's the wolves in sheep's clothing who end up stealing all of your coins.

Me? I'm just the cynical voice floating in the sea of unchecked optimism.
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March 20, 2013, 05:51:37 PM
 #4

I was just noticing that nobody seems to be taking up short positions on BTC here. Does everyone believe that from here on out it's only going up? Have I been going about my loan seeking the wrong way by targeting it to business interests? I am mostly interested in BTC loans because of the fact that it is going to suffer another crash (probably not all the way down and probably not down forever but down none the less) and I think BTC is a perfect opportunity for taking up a short position. I can end up funding my businesses for a fraction of what they actually cost. You would think if everyone is so confident things are only going to get better they'd be jumping over each other to take up this offer. I'd even be willing to do something with 6 months to a year and 20% interest with an option to payoff at any time because I know for certain I will have the opportunity to get out from the under loan for less than the interest will cost me.
The only problem with your loan is the risks involved in lending to you. Ever wondered why some loans seem to get filled in a blinking, and some don't?
I understand that side of things just fine however I find the idea that post count=confidence is a bit absurd considering the history of loaning to established members has tended to go.  Your jump from new/low post count to risk is a perceived one and not actual.

I am more concerned with discussing shorting in this thread though I would be happy to discuss anything about my loan in the thread for it if you'd like. I am not shy and I don't bite.
Nope, post count does not equal rep or confidence. For example, this guy has vastly more confidence instilled https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=72144 then you have.

As for shorting, you can go ahead and do so at bitfinex or even take out options with others. Be warned that you may get cleared easily like a poor guy here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=142318.0
Take a look at here please: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

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March 20, 2013, 05:53:53 PM
 #5

Think about it this way.  Your intent is to naked short BTC with someone elses coins.  Great for you horrible for lender.  So if BTC crashes you can repay easily but anyone thinking BTC will crash would likely just sell instead of lending.  There is no counterparty risk in selling.  So really the only people who would be willing to lend coins to you are those who think that BTC will hold value.  Now lets say that instead of crashing, BTC skyrockets your ability and likelihood to repay is greatly reduced.  So lenders coins are worth more but they never see them.  Throw the fact that ALL business has risk on top and it is just a lose-lose-lose for any lender.  Better to put it all on a high % SD game. 

Your history/rep doesn't mean you WILL scam but it certainly means you have absolutely nothing to lose by walking away.  Likewise someone with significant history/rep doesn't mean they WON'T scam but it does mean they have something to lose by walking away.

Lastly 20% interest?  If someone did want to lend coins to someone looking to short they could do so bitfinex.  Collect and interest and have some assurance the borrower can't walk away (although the site could).

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March 20, 2013, 05:56:29 PM
 #6

Fair enough on the MAC thing but that is an exception and you know it. I haven't been here that long but I've been following the community/scene for years and have witnessed every one of the longstanding members either stealing coins or saying they weren't putting them in an obvious scam and then putting them in an obvious scam and losing them all. I do not feel at risk of looking foolish as I am not making absolute statements about the ultimate fate of bitcoin. I am saying that this recent massive rise is a bubble and it is going to pop. I have no doubt people are far too invested both financially and ideologically to not prop it up from a total collapse and that it will likely recover as it did from the last crash but I do believe (know as much as one can know anything) a crash is inevitable.

Me? I'm just the cynical voice floating in the sea of unchecked optimism.
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March 20, 2013, 06:01:12 PM
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Fair enough on the MAC thing but that is an exception and you know it. I haven't been here that long but I've been following the community/scene for years and have witnessed every one of the longstanding members either stealing coins or saying they weren't putting them in an obvious scam and then putting them in an obvious scam and losing them all. I do not feel at risk of looking foolish as I am not making absolute statements about the ultimate fate of bitcoin. I am saying that this recent massive rise is a bubble and it is going to pop. I have no doubt people are far too invested both financially and ideologically to not prop it up from a total collapse and that it will likely recover as it did from the last crash but I do believe (know as much as one can know anything) a crash is inevitable.

It's not an exception. Another example here: I trust https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=75243 vastly more then https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=81269 .

I'm not going to comment on the bubble-talk - that belongs here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0
You should short with all you have if you're confident that it's a bubble. Just put your money to your instinct.

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March 20, 2013, 06:03:28 PM
 #8

Think about it this way.  Your intent is to naked short BTC with someone elses coins.  Great for you horrible for lender.

So if BTC crashes you can repay easily but anyone thinking BTC will crash would likely just sell instead of lending.   If BTC skyrockets your ability and likelihood to repay is greatly reduced.  So lenders coins are worth more but they never see them.

That is a risk you are right but it is a perceived one. The ability of anyone to ever repay any loan if BTC skyrockets is greatly reduced. There are a small handful of people with the kind of USD to cover a rapid skyrise on the value of bitcoin. I don't think the people who would lend to me would be people thinking it's going to crash which is really the point.

Quote
Lose-lose.  Your history/rep doesn't mean you WILL scam but it certainly means you have absolutely nothing to lose by walking away.
This is not true. I have stated my interest and what brought me here. I see a community with money to invest hungry for solid things to invest it in. As I told someone else the opportunity costs of a short term hustle where I walk away with a few hundred dollar in bitcoins would be far greater than the amount of coins I'd take. I am not looking at these initial run of loans as the end goal. These are numbers that are manageable for me but also worthwhile for both myself and the lender. I have much larger plans and will be looking for much larger investments (read: not loans) down the line.

Quote
Lastly 20% interest?  A lender could loan coins on bitfinex (to those who want to short) easier and safer then just handing them to a complete stranger and hoping they will get them back if/when they are worth more.  
I am not in it just to short I just think that that is an added bonus of taking my loan in coins instead of USD. My other options would be something like a payday loan which has much much MUCH higher interest rates.

Any coin I receive from this community is going straight into business. This is true to the extent that I am fine with the lender purchasing the thing for me and having it shipped to me instead of sending me coin.

Quote
It's not an exception. Another example here: I trust https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=75243 vastly more then https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=81269 .

I'm not going to comment on the bubble-talk - that belongs here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0
You should short with all you have if you're confident that it's a bubble. Just put your money to your instinct
I didn't mean to say it's only example but that it is an exception when put against the rule. Large post count/been here for years provides more confidence than not and to me that is a made up correlation to reliability (not that I don't understand it).

Me? I'm just the cynical voice floating in the sea of unchecked optimism.
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March 20, 2013, 06:40:26 PM
 #9

I was just noticing that nobody seems to be taking up short positions on BTC here. Does everyone believe that from here on out it's only going up?

For anyone else who stumbled onto this thread thinking it might actually have to do with shorting (incidentally, the correct title for this thread should have been "Why is nobody interested in my loan request"), there are several ways to short.

Right now there are bids on futures contracts above $70 on ICBIT (for BUM3, the June 15th 2013 settlement).   So that's like selling today at $70+ but you would then wait until June 15th to get the cash for that.  The contract with the Sept. 15th 2013 settlement has bids above $75 right now.

And there are other methods for going short, including writing CALL options or buying PUT options on MPEX.  And there's also  Bitfinex.   1Broker isn't offering BTC/USD anymore though.  When CoinSetter launches they say they will have this.  
 - http://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Financial

[Caution though, shorting involves counterparty risk and other factors.  Please perform due diligence.]

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March 20, 2013, 06:44:13 PM
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To be fair I did post it in the loan forum.

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March 21, 2013, 02:41:58 AM
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To be fair I did post it in the loan forum.
This, but the title and a brief overview yesterday prompted me to move it here. I'll move it back, seeing that it has nothing to do with shorting now.

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March 21, 2013, 06:44:31 AM
 #12

I was just noticing that nobody seems to be taking up short positions on BTC here. Does everyone believe that from here on out it's only going up? Have I been going about my loan seeking the wrong way by targeting it to business interests? I am mostly interested in BTC loans because of the fact that it is going to suffer another crash (probably not all the way down and probably not down forever but down none the less) and I think BTC is a perfect opportunity for taking up a short position. I can end up funding my businesses for a fraction of what they actually cost. You would think if everyone is so confident things are only going to get better they'd be jumping over each other to take up this offer. I'd even be willing to do something with 6 months to a year and 20% interest with an option to payoff at any time because I know for certain I will have the opportunity to get out from the under loan for less than the interest will cost me.

Basically you are proposing to act as a high-powered Bitcoin investment bank on the strength of the fact that you...what exactly? That you exist? That you type text into the little box?

Get over yourself. You want a short position you can buy PUTs on MPEx. You have a little BTC together you can even make and sell (covered!) CALLs.

Otherwise see here, get in the WoT, work for a while at building your history, maybe one day you'll have some credit. Today you're nobody worth nothing and so no one cares.

Seriously, get this straight: it's not because of positioning or whatever other bs you could solve with more speech. It's because you're nobody worth nothing and so no one cares.

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March 21, 2013, 07:28:07 AM
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To be fair I did post it in the loan forum.


This is your third thread that I have seen on the topic of you lending, it makes you sound desperate and desperate people lie / scam. I bought a repairable salvage car from a car lot once and when I went to pay for it they said they'd give me free delivery (worth £100) I knew right then I should have walked away because the car turned out to have bent chassis legs, (I looked at the car in the dark when it was snowing, had a mate with me and his preggers gf so had to make a quick decision).


In short if anyone offers you more than you are asking, or wants to get rid of something a bit too much /cheaply then they are very likely scammers.

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March 21, 2013, 10:41:25 PM
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I was just noticing that nobody seems to be taking up short positions on BTC here. Does everyone believe that from here on out it's only going up? Have I been going about my loan seeking the wrong way by targeting it to business interests? I am mostly interested in BTC loans because of the fact that it is going to suffer another crash (probably not all the way down and probably not down forever but down none the less) and I think BTC is a perfect opportunity for taking up a short position. I can end up funding my businesses for a fraction of what they actually cost. You would think if everyone is so confident things are only going to get better they'd be jumping over each other to take up this offer. I'd even be willing to do something with 6 months to a year and 20% interest with an option to payoff at any time because I know for certain I will have the opportunity to get out from the under loan for less than the interest will cost me.

Basically you are proposing to act as a high-powered Bitcoin investment bank on the strength of the fact that you...what exactly? That you exist? That you type text into the little box?

Get over yourself. You want a short position you can buy PUTs on MPEx. You have a little BTC together you can even make and sell (covered!) CALLs.

Otherwise see here, get in the WoT, work for a while at building your history, maybe one day you'll have some credit. Today you're nobody worth nothing and so no one cares.

Seriously, get this straight: it's not because of positioning or whatever other bs you could solve with more speech. It's because you're nobody worth nothing and so no one cares.
I'm not sure I had anything to get over? That sure is a lot of words arguing against something that doesn't exist.

Me? I'm just the cynical voice floating in the sea of unchecked optimism.
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March 21, 2013, 10:49:30 PM
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How about (gasp) using your own money to short bitcoins if you believe that is a good decision? People don't trust you, and you don't build trust by seeing how many forum posts you make about seeking loans.
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March 21, 2013, 11:10:16 PM
 #16

How about (gasp) using your own money to short bitcoins if you believe that is a good decision? People don't trust you, and you don't build trust by seeing how many forum posts you make about seeking loans.
I've been posting pretty regularly whenever I had something to say and shorting kind of involves not using your own money? You aren't supposed to own the thing you short. That wouldn't make any sense at all. You do know what a short position is right?

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March 22, 2013, 12:34:24 AM
 #17

How about (gasp) using your own money to short bitcoins if you believe that is a good decision? People don't trust you, and you don't build trust by seeing how many forum posts you make about seeking loans.
I've been posting pretty regularly whenever I had something to say and shorting kind of involves not using your own money? You aren't supposed to own the thing you short. That wouldn't make any sense at all. You do know what a short position is right?
1. Buy puts on BTCUSD
2. Huh

You could borrow bitcoins to short, but a put option mean you wouldn't lose 30% (and/or disappear from the forums to be never heard again).
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March 22, 2013, 01:01:30 AM
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How about (gasp) using your own money to short bitcoins if you believe that is a good decision? People don't trust you, and you don't build trust by seeing how many forum posts you make about seeking loans.
I've been posting pretty regularly whenever I had something to say and shorting kind of involves not using your own money? You aren't supposed to own the thing you short. That wouldn't make any sense at all. You do know what a short position is right?
1. Buy puts on BTCUSD
2. Huh

You could borrow bitcoins to short, but a put option mean you wouldn't lose 30% (and/or disappear from the forums to be never heard again).
I'll look into it I haven't checked out the exchanges much due to the various issues which have come from most of the situations where coins were consolidated to a central trading platform. You guys are paranoid about short term hustlers but from watching this scene from the outside for a few years I'm more concerned over the several hundred thousand to millions of USD longcon.

You will notice over time of my being involved here that I prefer to keep things simple.


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March 28, 2013, 10:29:18 PM
 #19

Can't imagine why I would want to short bitcoins...sure would have been risky for me.

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March 28, 2013, 10:42:45 PM
 #20

Can't imagine why I would want to short bitcoins...sure would have been risky for me.

So let's say you shorted BTC when they were at 56-60 (when you started this thread). When do you get out?

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