.

[bitfair]

This was an epic "I told you so" thread.

But it happens that "I told you so" is the most annoying thing to hear, so I hate you for that. [Although I recognise it is the most satisfying thing to say, so I would have done it too.]

[1714137821]

1714137821

[1714137821]

1714137821

[BitChick]

So Vladimir you are obviously bullish on the Winklevii news.

Some people are just shrugging and do not seem so excited.  With the big fall of the BTC price today it seems it has had a negative affect on the price of BTC if anything at all.  (of course, I think perhaps this news may have kept he price from falling any further and most of the falling price was due to Mt. Gox Withdrawal issues)

All that said, what are your projections based on this news?  I am curious since you seem to have some insider info.

[vokain]

So Vladimir you are obviously bullish on the Winklevii news.

Some people are just shrugging and do not seem so excited.  With the big fall of the BTC price today it seems it has had a negative affect on the price of BTC if anything at all.  (of course, I think perhaps this news may have kept he price from falling any further and most of the falling price was due to Mt. Gox Withdrawal issues)

All that said, what are your projections based on this news?  I am curious since you seem to have some insider info.

Worth noting from the wording (imho of course), Vlad also seems to have high confidence it will actually be approved.

FYI it will take 6-18 month to go from the initial filing to the ETF actually trading.

[mjosephs]

here you go

# sha256 -s "a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013"
SHA256 ("a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013") = ee404466e9a7cd997aa09f64529dc3bef3e7314357f0e66795cf601beaa7b34e

Er, GNU coreutils sha256sum sez:


$ echo "a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013" | sha256sum
2ad1e2ee56307f7df4f6a043a25e4df5a30b2947f158503bfe113e66e26b7dd3  -


[blink] y u no match? [/blink]

[vokain]

probably a character or two missing or added

[chufchuf]

So Vladimir you are obviously bullish on the Winklevii news.

Some people are just shrugging and do not seem so excited.  With the big fall of the BTC price today it seems it has had a negative affect on the price of BTC if anything at all.  (of course, I think perhaps this news may have kept he price from falling any further and most of the falling price was due to Mt. Gox Withdrawal issues)

All that said, what are your projections based on this news?  I am curious since you seem to have some insider info.

Worth noting from the wording (imho of course), Vlad also seems to have high confidence it will actually be approved.

FYI it will take 6-18 month to go from the initial filing to the ETF actually trading.

who cares- if it isn't approved, its submitted again, and if not in that country, in another etc, its coming, so run ye bears

[mjosephs]

probably a character or two missing or added

Or he just made it up?

No srsly, I'm really wondering what "sha256" program he's using.  Neither GNU coreutils (the sha256sum on every Linux box, every distro) nor the perl shasum script have a "-s" command line option.

[BitChick]

So Vladimir you are obviously bullish on the Winklevii news.

Some people are just shrugging and do not seem so excited.  With the big fall of the BTC price today it seems it has had a negative affect on the price of BTC if anything at all.  (of course, I think perhaps this news may have kept he price from falling any further and most of the falling price was due to Mt. Gox Withdrawal issues)

All that said, what are your projections based on this news?  I am curious since you seem to have some insider info.

Worth noting from the wording (imho of course), Vlad also seems to have high confidence it will actually be approved.

FYI it will take 6-18 month to go from the initial filing to the ETF actually trading.

who cares- if it isn't approved, its submitted again, and if not in that country, in another etc, its coming, so run ye bears

I hope so.  I don't know how the price dipped after this news.  I think it is very bullish.  I would think it could send the price higher then ever.  But I am so often wrong on these things, unfortunately.

[marvinrouge]

here you go

# sha256 -s "a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013"
SHA256 ("a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013") = ee404466e9a7cd997aa09f64529dc3bef3e7314357f0e66795cf601beaa7b34e

Er, GNU coreutils sha256sum sez:


$ echo "a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013" | sha256sum
2ad1e2ee56307f7df4f6a043a25e4df5a30b2947f158503bfe113e66e26b7dd3  -


[blink] y u no match? [/blink]

I got this using an online sha256 tool : ee404466e9a7cd997aa09f64529dc3bef3e7314357f0e66795cf601beaa7b34e [blink]match![/blink]

[Chainsaw]

Whether we like it or not, I think the concept will bring a lot of interest into bitcoin, because it reduces the barrier to entry. And even though they're buying shares of bitcoins, you know how it goes - once you get your first taste of Bitcoin, you can't quit :-)

But none of this will happen for, as said above, 6-18 months minimum.  Until people see it, and it's real, I don't anticipate the news will positively impact price.

Show a Bitcoin ATM, installed and not seized for a period of 7 days, I think the price goes up.
Post the IPO for anything Bitcoin, it gets attention, and the aforementioned benefits, I think the prices goes up.

There's another subtle (and evil) benefit to their concept.

They began with 200,000 shares. As people invest, they get more money. Which will allow them to buy more Bitcoins. Which increases the fundamental value of their stock.

So long as people arbitrage against their stock, the stock will self-sustain continued acquisition, which will continue to fuel an increase in value.

Can someone check my logic on this?  It seems as if, by attaching itself to the value of Bitcoin, then putting that asset on an exchange where billions are already traded, and arbitrage opportunities are seized, that this is an eventuality.

And Vladimir - which kidney do I have to give you to get a heads up on this sort of thing next time? 

[vokain]

probably a character or two missing or added

Or he just made it up?

No srsly, I'm really wondering what "sha256" program he's using.  Neither GNU coreutils (the sha256sum on every Linux box, every distro) nor the perl shasum script have a "-s" command line option.

I got this using an online sha256 tool : ee404466e9a7cd997aa09f64529dc3bef3e7314357f0e66795cf601beaa7b34e [blink]match![/blink]

me too
http://awesomescreenshot.com/0b41guy38d

[dillpicklechips]

here you go

# sha256 -s "a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013"
SHA256 ("a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013") = ee404466e9a7cd997aa09f64529dc3bef3e7314357f0e66795cf601beaa7b34e

Er, GNU coreutils sha256sum sez:


$ echo "a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013" | sha256sum
2ad1e2ee56307f7df4f6a043a25e4df5a30b2947f158503bfe113e66e26b7dd3  -


[blink] y u no match? [/blink]

It should be "echo -n " then text.

[vokain]

Who cares- if it isn't approved, its submitted again, and if not in that country, in another etc, its coming, so run ye bears

Yes! It is pretty much expected that this will go back and forth between ETF ops and regulators a few times at least. This is why 6-18 month time scale, not something more specific.

Yes. Of course it is bullish for Bitcoin for a number of reasons, such as:

1. "Early adopters" will be (most likely) able to loan their bitcoins to the trust ops and the thrust ops will want/need this.
2. Significant amount of bitcoins will be held by the trust and as such be removed from circulation.
3. Bitcoin investments will become available to anyone with a brokerage account, all within familiar paradigm/ui.
4. Eventually, the next step would be having proper options traded on bitcoin by making this trust optionable and as such Bitcoin will become optionable. This in turn will enable a variety of new business models that require currency exchange risk mitigation, for example, portfolio loans (you own bitcoin, want to buy a house, instead of selling bitcoin and paying capital gains taxes  and/or taking a mortgage you can simply give your Bitcoins as collateral to a portfolio loan company and get "portfolio loan").

oh my god if i can retire at the age of 21-22.... thank you based god. I promise I'll spread the good word of the Based.

[Soros Shorts]

here you go

# sha256 -s "a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013"
SHA256 ("a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013") = ee404466e9a7cd997aa09f64529dc3bef3e7314357f0e66795cf601beaa7b34e

Er, GNU coreutils sha256sum sez:


$ echo "a publicly traded bitcoin trust (similar to the SPDRs GLD Trust) Sat Mar 23 07:28:57 GMT 2013" | sha256sum
2ad1e2ee56307f7df4f6a043a25e4df5a30b2947f158503bfe113e66e26b7dd3  -


[blink] y u no match? [/blink]

echo probably appended a newline character.

[BitChick]

Who cares- if it isn't approved, its submitted again, and if not in that country, in another etc, its coming, so run ye bears

Yes! It is pretty much expected that this will go back and forth between ETF ops and regulators a few times at least. This is why 6-18 month time scale, not something more specific.

Yes. Of course it is bullish for Bitcoin for a number of reasons, such as:

1. "Early adopters" will be (most likely) able to loan their bitcoins to the trust ops and the thrust ops will want/need this.
2. Significant amount of bitcoins will be held by the trust and as such be removed from circulation.
3. Bitcoin investments will become available to anyone with a brokerage account, all within familiar paradigm/ui.
4. Eventually, the next step would be having proper options traded on bitcoin by making this trust optionable and as such Bitcoin will become optionable. This in turn will enable a variety of new business models that require currency exchange risk mitigation, for example, portfolio loans (you own bitcoin, want to buy a house, instead of selling bitcoin and paying capital gains taxes  and/or taking a mortgage you can simply give your Bitcoins as collateral to a portfolio loan company and get "portfolio loan").

So why is the price not going up like crazy because of this???  Are people just clueless?  I would buy more if I could right now!

[vokain]

So why is the price not going up like crazy because of this???  Are people just clueless?  I would buy more if I could right now!

^ that is exactly the reason. The vast majority of people ARE clueless about Bitcoin. Out of the few who own Bitcoin, the present market makers are currently mired to the price, who are currently panicking. People like you who know better have already possibly expended their capital, possibly because they already believed in the long term, unable to counter the downward pressure.

The general population is insanely ignorant about Bitcoin - and here's proof.

edit: direct link to the proof in question
http://forums.firefallthegame.com/community/threads/will-you-guys-consider-accepting-bitcoin.896741/page-5

[BitChick]

So why is the price not going up like crazy because of this???  Are people just clueless?  I would buy more if I could right now!

^ that is exactly the reason. The vast majority of people ARE clueless about Bitcoin. Out of the few who own Bitcoin, the present market makers are currently mired to the price, who are currently panicking. People like you have already possibly expended their capital, unable to counter the downward pressure.

The general population is insanely ignorant about Bitcoin - and here's proof.

Yes.  Some of us "believers" probably have expended our capital, or the amount we are willing to tie up. 

We are getting more press though thanks in part to the Winklevii.  Granted, it is not always positive but at least it is press.

It just seems like things like this would bring a little more boost.

[vokain]

It will, just not enough..yet. I got several calls yesterday asking if they should purchase in light of this announcement, and it reminds me of the same thing happening a few months back. Adoption rate is a time function...

but we can't just sit on our asses here. Get friends with businesses to accept Bitcoin (coinbase makes it dead easy, also point them towards the lower fees and the instant demand they get from this community. it's at least worth a sale or two in the short term), start your own business. Hell, start mining even, if that's something for you. We can't sit here watching the price expecting to get rich. Our time is worth much more than that.

[Crypt_Current]

Awesome thread.  I've been following it from the start.

To the guy above that says "well then why isn't ... " blah blah blah

Because look (as someone surely already explained):  Me <--  I am bitcoin savvy.  And this is news to me.

You kids with your nintendos and your hula hoops and your mac donalds, think time is nonexistent anymore... well guess what?  stuff takes time.

[humanitee]

Awesome follow up.

Kudos Vlad.