Qoheleth
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 960
Merit: 1028
Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.
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March 23, 2013, 03:30:04 PM |
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Looks like Mt. Gox finally disabled the v0 API. Went back to look at my logs and they've been 403ing for the past two days or so.
What a shame. I'd like to have participated in this flash crash.
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If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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Littleshop
Legendary
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Activity: 1386
Merit: 1003
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March 23, 2013, 03:30:40 PM |
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Littleshop, all good points. I am not sure however that freshly mined coins have much of an effect on the market. Also your analysis assumes that mining capacity will stop rising after difficulty jump. For all I know it can even accelerate and we will be mining 9-10 blocks per hour for quite a while. Basically until ASICs will barely cover cost of electricity.
Actually my analysis does not assume mining capacity will stop rising. Right after the difficulty change about 1/3 less new coins will be made. That is a big drop and it has not happened often. The rate will slowly climb but it will take at least a week before it is even close to what it is now, maybe longer. It is harder to add 1/3 to the new rate vs the old one. Over time I do agree ASICs production will get close to the cost of power just like GPU has. |
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phatsphere
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March 23, 2013, 03:41:58 PM |
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44 by Sunday
which sunday, tomorrow? i want to nail you on that one. please give a specific date. |
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ElectricMucus
Legendary
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Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
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March 23, 2013, 03:44:21 PM |
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44 by Sunday
which sunday, tomorrow? i want to nail you on that one. please give a specific date. yes tomorrow. If I'm wrong I'm wrong, nothing at stake here, I am not even short  |
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mccorvic
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March 23, 2013, 03:48:04 PM |
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Lol, I I love it when a crash happens but the the price goes back to where it was before it even happened. People know 1 btc for over $60 is a good deal and will continue to buy.
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Nemesis
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March 23, 2013, 03:51:25 PM |
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Lol, I I love it when a crash happens but the the price goes back to where it was before it even happened. People know 1 btc for over $60 is a good deal and will continue to buy.
I love it too man. Lets hold hand. |
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Herodes
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March 23, 2013, 05:20:59 PM |
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Something happens in 24 hours......
The supply from mining is going to drop by almost 1/3. Right now the supply is unusually high do to many ASIC rigs coming online and those people are selling right away to pay for the rigs.
The price will probably go back up 10-20 hours after the difficulty change.
Is that so, isn't the network made such that the btc supply is constant, no matter how much hashing power there is, ie. 1 new block giving 25 btc on avg. every 10th minute ? |
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Spaceman_Spiff
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1001
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
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March 23, 2013, 05:24:58 PM |
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Something happens in 24 hours......
The supply from mining is going to drop by almost 1/3. Right now the supply is unusually high do to many ASIC rigs coming online and those people are selling right away to pay for the rigs.
The price will probably go back up 10-20 hours after the difficulty change.
Is that so, isn't the network made such that the btc supply is constant, no matter how much hashing power there is, ie. 1 new block giving 25 btc on avg. every 10th minute ? Difficulty only resets after 2016 blocks. |
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smoothie
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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March 23, 2013, 05:28:16 PM |
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He'll be buying much lower, I think.
lol not so sure in your calls anymore eh? That's the reason you now put "I think" in your statements so you can deflect when proven wrong later. |
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| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS.
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BitPirate
Full Member
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Activity: 238
Merit: 100
RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!
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March 23, 2013, 05:35:35 PM |
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44 by Sunday SELL SELL SELL!  There are cheap coins (55), and there is a ruined market (44). Be careful which you wish for. |
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Aztec
Newbie
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Activity: 56
Merit: 0
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March 23, 2013, 05:40:26 PM |
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Forgive my ignorance but why would the market be ruined if the price did fall to 40 USD?
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ElectricMucus
Legendary
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Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
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March 23, 2013, 05:41:04 PM |
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44 by Sunday SELL SELL SELL! There are cheap coins (55), and there is a ruined market (44). Be careful which you wish for. Bingo! I want this bubble to pop. The amount of idiots in this community has grown to an insufferable amount, this has to change. One way or the other. |
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smoothie
Legendary
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Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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March 23, 2013, 05:45:05 PM |
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+1 to this thread.
That guy who sold...good job selling at the lowest point for likely the next several weeks to come.
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███████████████████████████████████████
| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ .
LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS.
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desired_username
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March 23, 2013, 05:52:27 PM
Last edit: March 23, 2013, 06:12:26 PM by desired_username |
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I cannot believe how many ignorant people are here. Does any of you really think that spreading BS on a forum does have an impact on the price?  sometimes it feels like im back in primary school again, or more like kindergarten |
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navigator
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March 23, 2013, 06:14:16 PM |
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Basically until ASICs will barely cover cost of electricity.
Please tell me if my maths is wrong. A BFL single 60gh/s, 60 watts, $0.07kw/h would cost about $.1/day in power. At current prices and a difficulty of 6,500,000,000 you would still make $.20/day. I forget how to convert difficulty to terahashes. Would 6.5 Billion difficulty translate to ~65000th/s? If so, that's ~43000 BFL 1.5th/s minirigs. |
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Aztec
Newbie
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Activity: 56
Merit: 0
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March 23, 2013, 06:15:28 PM |
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True, that big orange button helps with that though :p
+1 |
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Littleshop
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1003
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March 23, 2013, 06:29:35 PM |
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Something happens in 24 hours......
The supply from mining is going to drop by almost 1/3. Right now the supply is unusually high do to many ASIC rigs coming online and those people are selling right away to pay for the rigs.
The price will probably go back up 10-20 hours after the difficulty change.
Is that so, isn't the network made such that the btc supply is constant, no matter how much hashing power there is, ie. 1 new block giving 25 btc on avg. every 10th minute ? The network tried for 1 block every 10. It makes that adjustments every two weeks or so. Right now production is unusually high and will be corrected in 18 hours. |
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Herodes
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March 24, 2013, 04:03:23 PM |
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Something happens in 24 hours......
The supply from mining is going to drop by almost 1/3. Right now the supply is unusually high do to many ASIC rigs coming online and those people are selling right away to pay for the rigs.
The price will probably go back up 10-20 hours after the difficulty change.
Is that so, isn't the network made such that the btc supply is constant, no matter how much hashing power there is, ie. 1 new block giving 25 btc on avg. every 10th minute ? The network tried for 1 block every 10. It makes that adjustments every two weeks or so. Right now production is unusually high and will be corrected in 18 hours. Bitcoinwatch reports on avg. 9.08 blocks pr. hour, so it's not a whole lot more than normal, perhaps 10% faster than normal then ? Don't know what that avg. is based on though, if it's the last hour or the last 24 hours. |
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Vladimir (OP)
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March 24, 2013, 04:05:28 PM |
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58% faster than normal last time I checked. Normal is 1 block per 10 minutes on average.
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Herodes
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March 24, 2013, 04:14:58 PM |
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58% faster than normal last time I checked. Normal is 1 block per 10 minutes on average.
Correct - My math was off, I confused 1 block pr. 10 minute with 10 blocks pr. hour, so you're right. |
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