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Author Topic: probability of generating a block solo mining Bitcoin vs lottery  (Read 31098 times)
drawingthesun
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March 23, 2013, 03:14:28 PM
 #1

Right now, If I were to solo mine Bitcoin with a low hash rate (300mh/s) what are my chances of generating a block?

I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
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lassdas
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March 23, 2013, 03:22:27 PM
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At 300MH/s and current difficulty of ~4.8mio you'll need an average of ~800days to generate 1 block,
difficulty will change soon to ~6.8mio, puts your 300MH/s to an average of ~1000days per block.

You might get lucky and solve a block in 1year, or never, which is more likely.
drawingthesun
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March 23, 2013, 03:23:34 PM
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Haha, wow 3 years. Is it possible to work out the odds of solving the next block? (As in the next 10 minutes)
zif33rs
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March 23, 2013, 03:25:14 PM
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I think your chances at finding a block are MUCH better than winning a lottery. That being said I would think at 300 MH\s it would take you 2 years 73 days to generate a block on average.


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crazyates
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March 23, 2013, 03:31:19 PM
 #5

I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?

Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.

For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.

So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.

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crazyates
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March 23, 2013, 03:32:37 PM
 #6

Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.

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drawingthesun
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March 23, 2013, 03:34:00 PM
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I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?

Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.

For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.

So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.

Thanks.

So it is possible to solo mine and be extremely lucky and hit a block right away, except the chance of this happening is currently 1 in 4,850,000
drawingthesun
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March 23, 2013, 03:34:41 PM
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Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.

Yeah thought so. :) cheers pal.
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March 23, 2013, 05:10:40 PM
 #9

Thanks.

So it is possible to solo mine and be extremely lucky and hit a block right away, except the chance of this happening is currently 1 in 4,850,000
Yep. Pretty much.
Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.
Yeah thought so. Smiley cheers pal.
Anytime! Wink

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May 07, 2013, 01:52:00 PM
 #10

but what about if i get lucky?
easy 25 btc

at 300megahash in a pool you need more than 25 months anyway to get a reward of a block(25bitcoin)

i'm talking at when the diff was 5m
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May 08, 2013, 09:50:12 PM
 #11

Was funny how you call it a lottery, though I got 2 when I first started learning about bitcoins. The bad of it like you say you need alot of processing power and I didn't Sad and I missed out. ALSO, even if I did I'm not quite sure I had it setup right to deposit to my account and would have been mining for free Cry.

Might have been the fact that I had a fresh index but I wish I had that luck on a more known lottery in my area. I'm going to try again if I ever get my bitcoin miner Roll Eyes Grin

Like the info address for potential tips Wink
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Reverberation1
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August 29, 2013, 05:25:54 PM
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I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?

Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.

For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.

So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.

4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
Graet
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August 30, 2013, 01:52:06 AM
 #13

I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?

Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.

For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.

So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.

4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
nice bump for old thread, but difficulty went up a bit
<gribble> The average time to generate a block at 300.0 Mhps, given difficulty of 65750060.1491, is 29 years, 44 weeks, 2 days, 0 hours, 14 minutes, and 50 seconds
and difficulty going up at least 20% in 6 days

Though a guy on my pool did find a block on an overclocked 333mh block eruptor after mining on it a week or 2 - there is luck involved Wink

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crazyates
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August 30, 2013, 02:08:01 PM
 #14

I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?

Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.

For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.

So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.

4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
No, it's 4-5 shares a minute, not a second. Actually right around 4.7shares / minute. Also, why did you multiple by 3 randomly? 335MH/s will average out to just under 6,800 shares per day (4.7*60*24). With a difficulty of 65.8Million, it's more like 6,800/65800000, which is almost a 1/10,000 chance.

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af_newbie
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August 30, 2013, 03:18:14 PM
 #15

I was on eclipsemc pool with my ~950GH, got blocks solved every few days.

Today, I went solo, using slush's/generalfaults pool

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=162788.0

We'll see how long it will take to solve a block solo.
drawingthesun
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August 30, 2013, 04:03:34 PM
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I was on eclipsemc pool with my ~950GH, got blocks solved every few days.

Whoa dude thats a lot of hash-power. A ASIC farm?
af_newbie
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September 03, 2013, 03:09:02 AM
 #17

Here you go, got block #255822 with 164.19M difficulty

and the coinbase

http://blockchain.info/tx/08bcaf3c83fa1b900a5828fd24f4000ed398435ef1906c85a01114f9ee0a6a58?show_adv=true
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September 03, 2013, 06:56:28 PM
 #18

What hardware for 950GH?

af_newbie
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September 03, 2013, 06:59:45 PM
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What hardware for 950GH?
BFL
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September 13, 2013, 12:01:00 PM
 #20

Here you go, got block #255822 with 164.19M difficulty

and the coinbase

http://blockchain.info/tx/08bcaf3c83fa1b900a5828fd24f4000ed398435ef1906c85a01114f9ee0a6a58?show_adv=true


So with current diff, at 86M. your making 5.4 coins (in a pool) per day.. you made 25 coins in 5 days august 30th to september 3rd (solo mining).
Do you still solo mine? have you gotten lucky?
Im thinking of trying.. but dont have 950GH.
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