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Author Topic: probability of generating a block solo mining Bitcoin vs lottery  (Read 31059 times)
af_newbie
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September 13, 2013, 02:01:43 PM
 #21

Here you go, got block #255822 with 164.19M difficulty

and the coinbase

http://blockchain.info/tx/08bcaf3c83fa1b900a5828fd24f4000ed398435ef1906c85a01114f9ee0a6a58?show_adv=true


So with current diff, at 86M. your making 5.4 coins (in a pool) per day.. you made 25 coins in 5 days august 30th to september 3rd (solo mining).
Do you still solo mine? have you gotten lucky?
Im thinking of trying.. but dont have 950GH.

Got three blocks since Aug 30/31,  I sold one rig so last week was doing solo with one rig, did not get anything.
Now, I got another rig, so will try solo with two rigs again.  Hit 67M just hours ago, but 86 is the target now...

Is it worth it?  I don't think so.  The variance is killing me.  Last week I could have made 18-20 with one rig, but instead I got nothing.
If you have less than 500GH, don't do it.  Even with 1TH, it is a big gamble.

I'd feel more comfortable with 2-3TH or more, but 1TH?
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driksson
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September 13, 2013, 07:11:06 PM
 #22

Here you go, got block #255822 with 164.19M difficulty

and the coinbase

http://blockchain.info/tx/08bcaf3c83fa1b900a5828fd24f4000ed398435ef1906c85a01114f9ee0a6a58?show_adv=true


So with current diff, at 86M. your making 5.4 coins (in a pool) per day.. you made 25 coins in 5 days august 30th to september 3rd (solo mining).
Do you still solo mine? have you gotten lucky?
Im thinking of trying.. but dont have 950GH.

Got three blocks since Aug 30/31,  I sold one rig so last week was doing solo with one rig, did not get anything.
Now, I got another rig, so will try solo with two rigs again.  Hit 67M just hours ago, but 86 is the target now...

Is it worth it?  I don't think so.  The variance is killing me.  Last week I could have made 18-20 with one rig, but instead I got nothing.
If you have less than 500GH, don't do it.  Even with 1TH, it is a big gamble.

I'd feel more comfortable with 2-3TH or more, but 1TH?

thanks for sharing! bit far from 1 th.. hm ok.
cardcomm
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September 14, 2013, 03:22:56 AM
 #23

Clearly there is some luck involved. I've been hashing less than two months with these and found a block. But I was pool mining, so...


Easily see your cgminer status with my cgminerLCDStats app:  http://cardcomm.github.io/cgminerLCDStats/
Did my post help you or make you laugh? Let me know with Bitcoins at: 1CQfpMHQ5zVuZ5i9uxSHSSx4J8ZhehSjn3  Smiley
af_newbie
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September 14, 2013, 04:51:04 PM
 #24

When solo, you have to take a loss of orphaned blocks as well.

Just found one today

Block: 257970

Someone submitted solved block 10 seconds before me somewhere else on the network.

Initially, my block was accepted my my node and 50+ others, but then orphaned.
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September 19, 2013, 09:53:02 PM
 #25

Clearly there is some luck involved. I've been hashing less than two months with these and found a block. But I was pool mining, so...



Did you get a better return for finding it. EclipseMC seems to be finding a lot of blocks since when I run that straight my miners keep stopping and going but none were mine. I haven't found a management strategy that works both to get me the most shares and increase my chance of finding a block in a pool.

Like the info address for potential tips Wink
BTC 1CL5BnNhdL2wDVmSDwMbW1cNhZew87CAPV
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cpengr
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October 27, 2013, 02:45:19 AM
 #26

84500 (seconds in a day)

Sidenote, 86400.
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January 24, 2015, 12:12:01 PM
 #27

Massive dredge!

I am having a debate with a friend about the probability of solo mining a block at 4Gh/s at current difficulty and specifically we are comparing it to the UK National Lottery which costs £2 to play with a probability of winning £1,000 of 1:55000 and a probability of winning £50k of 1:2,300,000...(jackpot is roughly 1:14,000,000)

We estimate that the probability of solo mining a block at 4GH/s to be roughly 1:600,000.

Do you think we are approximately correct?
Gladdy
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January 24, 2015, 04:03:10 PM
 #28

with 4 gh you should get around 500 K shares at the pool and the current network difficulty is 43 Billlion , your probability of solving a block is around 9.8 yrs.  so you would spent more money on electricity in those 9.8 yrs to get 12.5 BTC (BTC reward will be halve to 12.5 btc in about 2 yrs from now)
than buying lottery tickets. either ways,  not good investment.  Smiley
stonehedge
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January 24, 2015, 05:24:50 PM
 #29

Good answer, thanks!

Definitely better "value" than playing the lottery though even if both are throwing your money away (depending on luck).
pokeyjones
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January 25, 2015, 07:57:53 PM
 #30

had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.

someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.

there's a difference between hashing and catching.
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January 27, 2015, 05:07:35 AM
 #31

had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.

someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.

there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets.

stonehedge
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January 27, 2015, 07:52:29 AM
 #32

Maybe I should switch my two antminers off then.  Hope dies hard  Grin

EDIT:  Maybe I'll keep them running for a couple more weeks.  We're off on honeymoon 9 months late due to work commitments and a solo mined block would be a hugely fortuitous way to pimp our break  Wink You've got to be in it to win it!
drawingthesun
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January 27, 2015, 01:23:33 PM
 #33

had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.

someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.

there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets.

Isn't mining only for companies that can construct ASIC's now, and even then most of them fail.
stonehedge
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January 27, 2015, 01:59:01 PM
 #34

had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.

someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.

there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets.

Isn't mining only for companies that can construct ASIC's now, and even then most of them fail.

And for desperately hopeful romantics feeling lucky...
stonehedge
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January 28, 2015, 10:33:50 AM
 #35

Best share 288K!

Come on my little beauties.  Watch out megafarms, we're coming for your blocks!
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June 23, 2016, 01:36:26 AM
 #36

Funny, I just had the same thought and now started solo mining with 60Gh/s.

What are my chances nowadays of raking in the block reward with that gear?

Still better than winning in lotto (which is 1:139.838.160)?

talks_cheep
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June 25, 2016, 01:59:52 PM
 #37

Yeah, count me in too, I'm running a 400 GHs machine on ck solo pool. Wish there was online calculator.

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June 25, 2016, 02:05:30 PM
 #38

I calculated the odds of raking in the block reward with 60Gh/s at the current hash rate.

My odds are about 1:21.877.050

So for your 400 Gh/s it would be around 1:3.281.885 if I calculated correctly.



Cyaren
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July 04, 2016, 09:30:58 AM
 #39

Right now, If I were to solo mine Bitcoin with a low hash rate (300mh/s) what are my chances of generating a block?

I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?

wow a funny idea lol...
i wouldnt try it even with a really good hardware because u can never get it... too risky.
You better buy good hardware and go to pool,the profit will be small but constant,which is most important i think
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A new tool for prediction https://bitvol.info/


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July 05, 2016, 03:32:57 AM
 #40

  go to bitcoinwisdom


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



put in 1gh  you get    0.000002357  divide  25 by that number   you get 10,606,703 to 1 or

1,532,313,302GH/s    for whole network  so 1,532,313,302 to 1  WTF   why are the numbers different.   we make 144 blocks a day


so 144 x 10,606,703 =  1,527,365,294 to one    due to rounding errors it is not a perfect match


so

odds for a block with 1gh = 1,530,000,000  to one
odds for a day with 1gh = 10,600,000 to one   rounded it a bit


10gh = 153,000,000 block
10gh = 1,060,000    day

100gh = 15,300,000 block
100gh =  106,000    day

1000gh = 1,530,000 block
1000gh =   10,600 day

10,000gh = 153,000 block   this is the lowest rental  from nicehash
10,000gh =   1,060  day





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I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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