cpengr
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October 27, 2013, 02:45:19 AM |
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84500 (seconds in a day) Sidenote, 86400.
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stonehedge
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Decentralize Everything
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January 24, 2015, 12:12:01 PM |
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Massive dredge!
I am having a debate with a friend about the probability of solo mining a block at 4Gh/s at current difficulty and specifically we are comparing it to the UK National Lottery which costs £2 to play with a probability of winning £1,000 of 1:55000 and a probability of winning £50k of 1:2,300,000...(jackpot is roughly 1:14,000,000)
We estimate that the probability of solo mining a block at 4GH/s to be roughly 1:600,000.
Do you think we are approximately correct?
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Gladdy
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January 24, 2015, 04:03:10 PM |
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with 4 gh you should get around 500 K shares at the pool and the current network difficulty is 43 Billlion , your probability of solving a block is around 9.8 yrs. so you would spent more money on electricity in those 9.8 yrs to get 12.5 BTC (BTC reward will be halve to 12.5 btc in about 2 yrs from now) than buying lottery tickets. either ways, not good investment.
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stonehedge
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January 24, 2015, 05:24:50 PM Last edit: January 24, 2015, 06:00:24 PM by stonehedge |
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Good answer, thanks!
Definitely better "value" than playing the lottery though even if both are throwing your money away (depending on luck).
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pokeyjones
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January 25, 2015, 07:57:53 PM |
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had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
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numismatist
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January 27, 2015, 05:07:35 AM |
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had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets.
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stonehedge
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January 27, 2015, 07:52:29 AM Last edit: January 27, 2015, 08:02:41 AM by stonehedge |
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Maybe I should switch my two antminers off then. Hope dies hard EDIT: Maybe I'll keep them running for a couple more weeks. We're off on honeymoon 9 months late due to work commitments and a solo mined block would be a hugely fortuitous way to pimp our break You've got to be in it to win it!
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drawingthesun (OP)
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January 27, 2015, 01:23:33 PM |
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had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets. Isn't mining only for companies that can construct ASIC's now, and even then most of them fail.
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stonehedge
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January 27, 2015, 01:59:01 PM |
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had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets. Isn't mining only for companies that can construct ASIC's now, and even then most of them fail. And for desperately hopeful romantics feeling lucky...
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stonehedge
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January 28, 2015, 10:33:50 AM |
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Best share 288K!
Come on my little beauties. Watch out megafarms, we're coming for your blocks!
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m4nki
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June 23, 2016, 01:36:26 AM |
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Funny, I just had the same thought and now started solo mining with 60Gh/s.
What are my chances nowadays of raking in the block reward with that gear?
Still better than winning in lotto (which is 1:139.838.160)?
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talks_cheep
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June 25, 2016, 01:59:52 PM |
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Yeah, count me in too, I'm running a 400 GHs machine on ck solo pool. Wish there was online calculator.
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m4nki
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June 25, 2016, 02:05:30 PM |
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I calculated the odds of raking in the block reward with 60Gh/s at the current hash rate.
My odds are about 1:21.877.050
So for your 400 Gh/s it would be around 1:3.281.885 if I calculated correctly.
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Cyaren
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July 04, 2016, 09:30:58 AM |
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Right now, If I were to solo mine Bitcoin with a low hash rate (300mh/s) what are my chances of generating a block?
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
wow a funny idea lol... i wouldnt try it even with a really good hardware because u can never get it... too risky. You better buy good hardware and go to pool,the profit will be small but constant,which is most important i think
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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July 05, 2016, 03:32:57 AM Last edit: July 05, 2016, 03:45:42 AM by philipma1957 |
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go to bitcoinwisdom https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyput in 1gh you get 0.000002357 divide 25 by that number you get 10,606,703 to 1 or 1,532,313,302GH/s for whole network so 1,532,313,302 to 1 WTF why are the numbers different. we make 144 blocks a day so 144 x 10,606,703 = 1,527,365,294 to one due to rounding errors it is not a perfect match so odds for a block with 1gh = 1,530,000,000 to one odds for a day with 1gh = 10,600,000 to one rounded it a bit 10gh = 153,000,000 block 10gh = 1,060,000 day 100gh = 15,300,000 block 100gh = 106,000 day 1000gh = 1,530,000 block 1000gh = 10,600 day 10,000gh = 153,000 block this is the lowest rental from nicehash 10,000gh = 1,060 day
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