Diff thread Aug 2 to Aug 16. Picks are yet to start. prize =0.00

[philipma1957]

New thread new game smaller prizes see thread link here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1586699.new#new

I am suspending prizes last winner was paid today.  Veves1  got a $50 payment today.

I won't give a prize until  after Sept 21st.  At the first diff  Adjustment in the fall I will start up again.  Most likely prizes  will be cut to $25.00 per diff adjustment period .

That should recoup the loss  of 700 usd I suffered  from Bitfinex. In about a years time.

In the mean time I will have a vacation from the thread in terms of listing pick.

I will still run it  but just for info for now.








Difficulty History

Date                    Difficulty                    Change   Hash Rate
Aug 02 2016   201,893,210,853   -5.43%   1,445,207,896 GH/s
Jul 18 2016   213,492,501,108   0.04%   1,528,238,850 GH/s
Jul 04 2016   213,398,925,331   1.88%   1,527,569,009 GH/s
Jun 21 2016   209,453,158,595   6.83%   1,499,324,110 GH/s
Jun 08 2016   196,061,423,940   -1.63%   1,403,462,340 GH/s
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180           5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450           2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480           0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039          2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234          4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455          4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328          2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409         0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846         2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303          3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931        -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355    4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154        -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245         2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018         0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513        -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688         5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645        -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951         1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317         5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962         7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895        -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056         8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017         3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307        -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271        -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328    1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252        10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265         2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s

© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com






I have to post a  possibile  end to the contest.

My funding for this is stored in www.bitfinex.com

they are hacked.  I may have mine intact as mine are all ETH and ETC not BTC


I will post an update:


https://www.bitfinex.com/credit



https://www.bitfinex.com/

Security breach on Bitfinex

Today we discovered a security breach that requires us to halt all trading on Bitfinex, as well as halt all digital token deposits to and withdrawals from Bitfinex.

We are investigating the breach to determine what happened, but we know that some of our users have had their bitcoins stolen. We are undertaking a review to determine which users have been affected by the breach. While we conduct this initial investigation and secure our environment, bitfinex.com will be taken down and the maintenance page will be left up.

The theft is being reported to — and we are co-operating with — law enforcement.

As we account for individualized customer losses, we may need to settle open margin positions, associated financing, and/or collateral affected by the breach. Any settlements will be at the current market prices as of 18:00 UTC. We are taking this necessary accounting step to normalize account balances with the objective of resuming operations. We will look at various options to address customer losses later in the investigation. While we are halting all operations at this time, we can confirm that the breach was limited to bitcoin wallets; the other digital tokens traded on Bitfinex are unaffected.

We will post updates as and when appropriate on our status page, bitfinex.statuspage.io. We are deeply concerned about this issue and we are committing every resource to try to resolve it. We ask for the community’s patience as we unravel the causes and consequences of this breach.

bitfinex.statuspage.io, support@bitfinex.com

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[VRobb]

Congrats to Veves1 for the pick.  Big raspberry to bitfinex for getting "hacked" yet again...  Sorry to hear this may affect you, philip, here's hoping it doesn't!

[philipma1957]

Congrats to Veves1 for the pick.  Big raspberry to bitfinex for getting "hacked" yet again...  Sorry to hear this may affect you, philip, here's hoping it doesn't!

Well the coins are in eth and etc  accounts  not btc 


51 eth  is 51 x 0.0154 btc   .7854

 55 etc   =  55 x 0.0061 btc .3355


total of  1.121 btc

[Mikestang]

Fingers crossed for your funds, Phil.

May I ask why you stored them in an exchange rather than a wallet under your control?

[philipma1957]

Fingers crossed for your funds, Phil.

May I ask why you stored them in an exchange rather than a wallet under your control?

Well I have 3 hot wallets in three spots.

and a safe wallet I control.


I balance stuff around but I was busy and did not realize I had that much Eth + Etc   in that account at least i had    zero BTC.

It is still going to be gone if the figures are correct this is the largest fiat theft ever 60 million usd.

I am sure they are not going to give out  the ETH , ETC or LTC

as it is 63 million in btc stolen


http://www.pcworld.com/article/3103609/bitcoin-exchange-bitfinex-apparently-loses-63-million-to-hackers.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#tk.rss_all


so this is a fucking mess.  the thief will dump these coins into mixers left and right.  so btc is going to tank hard.

I see 450 or less .


So  we can bs this diff time period,  but I am holding back contest prizes for at least  a few diff periods.

I have Veves1  prize I need his btc address.

[Chris!]

Fingers crossed for your funds, Phil.

May I ask why you stored them in an exchange rather than a wallet under your control?

Well I have 3 hot wallets in three spots.

and a safe wallet I control.


I balance stuff around but I was busy and did not realize I had that much Eth + Etc       zero BTC.

It is still going to be gone if the figures are correct this is the largest fiat theft ever 60 million usd.

I am sure they are not going to give out  the ETH or ETC.

it is 63 million in btc stolen


http://www.pcworld.com/article/3103609/bitcoin-exchange-bitfinex-apparently-loses-63-million-to-hackers.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#tk.rss_all


so this is a fucking mess.  the thief will dump these coins into mixers left and right.  so btc is going to tank hard.

I see 450 or less .

Ohhh that's why Bitcoin dropped off the face of the earth since I last checked it. I guess I'm a little late getting the news. Sorry to hear about your funds. Hopefully you get all (or at least some) of them back.

[VRobb]

Sounds more than reasonable, philip. Will hope for the best but you tend to be right more than not... 

[notlist3d]

Fingers crossed for your funds, Phil.

May I ask why you stored them in an exchange rather than a wallet under your control?

Well I have 3 hot wallets in three spots.

and a safe wallet I control.


I balance stuff around but I was busy and did not realize I had that much Eth + Etc   in that account at least i had    zero BTC.

It is still going to be gone if the figures are correct this is the largest fiat theft ever 60 million usd.

I am sure they are not going to give out  the ETH , ETC or LTC

as it is 63 million in btc stolen


http://www.pcworld.com/article/3103609/bitcoin-exchange-bitfinex-apparently-loses-63-million-to-hackers.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#tk.rss_all


so this is a fucking mess.  the thief will dump these coins into mixers left and right.  so btc is going to tank hard.

I see 450 or less .


So  we can bs this diff time period,  but I am holding back contest prizes for at least  a few diff periods.

I have Veves1  prize I need his btc address.

I was afraid of a big number as they were so vague on site ... it just sounded like it was huge and they were trying not let numbers get out yet.   With advanced trading it had a big following.   I am hoping that post on reddit is wrong on amount but I'm thinking there is a good chance it is right.  Does anyone know total that was stored at Bitfinex?   With big numbers is BTC a total loss as far as customer holdings?

I'm hoping that everyone has already expected the worst and does not go even more crazy.  But this really sounds like Mt. Gox 2.0.   So we could see a massive decline in price which is scary as holder and miner.  I don't know how many times it will take for places with hot wallets to see the danger of storing massive amounts in them, exchanges are a big offender as so to many store on them.  

I hoping some will feel safe with Coinbase that has a insurance policy.  Maybe we can see more exchanges take out policy's (I hope) but it wont be a quick process.  But for now I'm glued to my computer screen watching for news, and prices.   Going to be a interesting difficulty period but not in a good way starting with this.
 

[philipma1957]

I am really freaking tired  but here are some nice shots of my kitchen.  before the handles and some trim is missing.









handles-- trim under sink -crown molding
very close to done.

[NeuroticFish]

I'm sorry for the money loss. Although your alts may be safe, it'll be clearly a bad time to do business with BTC (selling) for a while.
Since the thieves are greedy, the effect on the price will be very big, but I also expect that it won't last too long (although it's hard to predict how long it'll be).

I am really freaking tired  but here are some nice shots of my kitchen.  before the handles and some trim is missing.

At least this ends well, congrats!

[philipma1957]

I'm sorry for the money loss. Although your alts may be safe, it'll be clearly a bad time to do business with BTC (selling) for a while.
Since the thieves are greedy, the effect on the price will be very big, but I also expect that it won't last too long (although it's hard to predict how long it'll be).

I am really freaking tired  but here are some nice shots of my kitchen.  before the handles and some trim is missing.

At least this ends well, congrats!

I posted the kitchen  to remind myself  that the loss of coin in bitfinex  is 700 usd give or take a few bucks.

The kitchen which is 98% done was a lot more then 700 or 7,000 or 14,000.  So this helps me keep it all in  proper perspective.


Back to spec.
A very big spike    and we are just about back to 213 diff if it stays there.  note the 1 block per 9.4 minutes in blue highlight.

 we dropped to  485 usd and have come back up to 567

[HerbPean]

That is quite a nice spike we are having here. Back to moon ...

Are you taking any roommate ? That Kitchen is really nice. 

I heard they will refund everybody. I'm sure you'll get you're coins back soon.

[philipma1957]

That is quite a nice spike we are having here. Back to moon ...

Are you taking any roommate ? That Kitchen is really nice. 

I heard they will refund everybody. I'm sure you'll get you're coins back soon.

Well  spike is crazy high. 


Kitchen is really nice


I at least feel somewhat lucky I don't have more  I was as high as 1000 usd worth of ETC+ETH+BTC.

My guess is most is gone as I was a lender of ETH and ETC   so I am sure I will be told the borrowers all purchased BTC and the BTC is lost.

[Mikestang]

Perspective is something everyone needs to pay more attention to, I'm glad you have your kitchen project to give you that other way to look.  I went through a recent bathroom remodel that was a nightmare, an endless cycle of mistakes and missed deadlines, and the house ended up getting sold and I never even used the remodel once.

The price seems to be making a push back, probably because a lot of people started buying once btc went under $500.  It's a shame this hack happened, but rest assured it will happen again still, all we can do is keep on keeping on.

And thanks for keeping this going for fun, maybe we can put the onus on each of us that when we post our guess, to post all the guesses before us so that it's no one person's job to maintain the list, just quote it from the last person who posted and add your guess in where it goes.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:    201,893,210,853
Estimated Next Difficulty:    197,266,676,357 (-2.29%)
Adjust time:    After 1871 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,621,480,855 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.2 minutes
   
Updated:    9:45 (1.5 minutes ago)

[philipma1957]

Perspective is something everyone needs to pay more attention to, I'm glad you have your kitchen project to give you that other way to look.  I went through a recent bathroom remodel that was a nightmare, an endless cycle of mistakes and missed deadlines, and the house ended up getting sold and I never even used the remodel once.

The price seems to be making a push back, probably because a lot of people started buying once btc went under $500.  It's a shame this hack happened, but rest assured it will happen again still, all we can do is keep on keeping on.

And thanks for keeping this going for fun, maybe we can put the onus on each of us that when we post our guess, to post all the guesses before us so that it's no one person's job to maintain the list, just quote it from the last person who posted and add your guess in where it goes.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:    201,893,210,853
Estimated Next Difficulty:    197,266,676,357 (-2.29%)
Adjust time:    After 1871 Blocks, About 12.4 days
Hashrate(?):    1,621,480,855 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 9.5 minutes >>>>> bad a spike
3 blocks: 28.6 minutes
6 blocks: 57.2 minutes
   
Updated:    9:45 (1.5 minutes ago)

and the spike is on.  we are at +4 %

[vapourminer]

phil, that kitchen looks GREAT!

redid our kitchen a few years ago, not a complete rebuild like yours looks like.

we reheat pizza in it. we like it

[Cuidler]

It seems miners not much concerned about short-term Bitcoin price and continue hashing as usual. Bit weird as there must be a lot of S5 and older unprofitable hardware (I guess phil estimated about 500 ph) unless you pay nothing or like 1-2 cents from nearby power plant. Hard to believe last week hashrate drop included disconnecting all of the older and unprofitable equipment and the spike we see last few days is the new bitmain in house S9s (or privately sold to some big mining farm).

[philipma1957]

It seems miners not much concerned about short-term Bitcoin price and continue hashing as usual. Bit weird as there must be a lot of S5 and older unprofitable hardware (I guess phil estimated about 500 ph) unless you pay nothing or like 1-2 cents from nearby power plant. Hard to believe last week hashrate drop included disconnecting all of the older and unprofitable equipment and the spike we see last few days is the new bitmain in house S9s (or privately sold to some big mining farm).

400ph older then the s-7  


and 800ph  s-7 avalon 6


which is 1200ph


300 to 500 ph of s-9  less accurate.

[Cuidler]

400ph older then the s-7   
and 800ph  s-7 avalon 6
which is 1200ph

300 to 500 ph of s-9  less accurate.

The problem is this adds up to 1500-1700 ph, which is current hashrate. No significant shutdown of mining equipment after the halving so far, maybe up to 200 ph already shutted down after the halving (mostly last week drop), but was replaced by new equipment pretty quickly (bitmain not selling to public does not mean they stopped the production by waiting for new chips, there are always private deals possible or bitmain mining farm), plus most of the unprofitable equipment has to be sold and new buyer must be profitable (free or 1-2 cent electricity cost). So I would not expect much bigger drop anymore, maybe few more similar slightly negative % periods this year.

[mwizard]

It seems miners not much concerned about short-term Bitcoin price and continue hashing as usual. Bit weird as there must be a lot of S5 and older unprofitable hardware (I guess phil estimated about 500 ph) unless you pay nothing or like 1-2 cents from nearby power plant. Hard to believe last week hashrate drop included disconnecting all of the older and unprofitable equipment and the spike we see last few days is the new bitmain in house S9s (or privately sold to some big mining farm).

I'm not surprised the hash rate continues to climb as S9 type miners trickle out. If S9 type systems were available to the public tens of thousands would be sold. The last batch of 999 sold out in hours.  

Each S9 has the hash rate of at least 10 S5s.

Currently the S9 is profitable to power up even if you pay 20 cents per kWh.  If you have cheap electricity the profit margin is huge.  

It is quite possible the network hash rate will come close to doubling by the end of the year.   The limit is the availability of 14/16 nm miners.

I would expect the difficulty increase this period to be at least 5% and probably close to 10%.