Cypriot banks open in Tuesday (not in 4 hours).. Who wants to make a prediction?

[bubblesort]

EDIT:  I'm sorry, the original title of this thread was misleading.  I didn't know tomorrow is a holiday in Cyprus.  It looks like the banks will reopen Tuesday.  I edited the title and the post to reflect this.  That said...


The banks in Cyprus probably open on Tuesday.

Quick background:  We have had a huge BTC boom over the past week or so, and many people think the boom is a run up in anticipation of this event.  Many of the big depositors in Cyprus won't be able to get at their money, and the smaller depositors are going to have to deal with withdrawal restrictions and difficult international transfers.  That said, many people are hoping that Cypriots will probably start buying bitcoins as soon as they can, which will hopefully happen on Tuesday.

The million BTC question:  What does this mean for the value of bitcoin on the exchanges on Tuesday?

• Up, vindicating the investors who were buying for the past week or so?
• Down, when everybody is let down when nobody on Cyprus buys bitcoins for whatever reason?
• No change?  That would mean that the current run continues, unaffected either way, drawing questions about what is causing the run up in the BTC price.

Sure, making predictions like this right before the big event can make you look stupid... or it can make you look like a genius.

Care to try your luck?

[01BTC10]

I think Monday is an holiday in Cyprus.

EDIT : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_War_of_Independence

[Vladimir]

Actually, no. Nobody expects any serious immediate cash flow into Bitcoin from Cypriots.

I guess some expectations of continuing interest from Russians, Canadians, French, British, Italian, Spanish, New Zealanders, Australians and others are not unreasonable.

What is expected is another working week of capital inflows into mtgox and other exchanges.

Cyprus is just like a litmus test that shows true intention of the banking cartel. What happens with that yellow or blue piece of litmus paper after the test is done? That is irrelevant.

[chrsjrcj]

Cyprus banks wont reopen until Tuesday.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Only if there's a newsworthy bank run. It's not Cypriots, it's everyone else.

[BitPirate]

The Cyprus news is important for Bitcoin, but it won't be this simplistic; No-one is going to drink the kool-aid that much. The effect will be a gradual acknowledgement of the lack of safety of traditional savings methods.

Furthermore people who have all their eggs in one basket (in a Cypriot bank), and are appalled by the EU move, are unlikely to move all their eggs into a speculative currency.

However, this is a good thing. Overall, the news is massive, and has a long, positive tail for Bitcoin. It will improve buying pressure for many months, if not years, and will speed adoption.

[Vladimir]

yep.

1. Everyone now knows that no deposit over 100k is safe in EU.
2. Everyone makes damn sure that all their deposits are below 100k.
3. Banksters want another trillion.
4.

[bubblesort]

Woops, my mistake about the bank opening tomorrow.  I fixed the thread title and first post to be more accurate.

[Gatekeeper]

it could take a few weeks for people to learn about bitcoin and actually get to a point where they can buy it, i doubt there will be an immediate avalanche

[Luno]

Only if there's a newsworthy bank run. It's not Cypriots, it's everyone else.

Me to, going to visit my bank when it opens this morning and get rid of any of my European stocks and zero my accounts except what i need to pay my bills.

Funny I sound like my gandma when I asked her about banks as a kid.

Any good suggestions for reliable stocks or other assets? (I'm not looking for high risk high return ones)

Is Asia good?

[01BTC10]

Eurozone finance ministers have agreed a deal on a 10bn-euro bailout for Cyprus to prevent its banking system collapsing and keep the country in the eurozone.

Laiki (Popular) Bank - the country's second-biggest - will be wound down and holders of deposits of more than 100,000 euros will face big losses.

However, all deposits under 100,000 euros will be "fully guaranteed".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21916102

[Sage]

Anyone in Cyprus, what's the boots-on-the-ground report?

I wouldn't put too much stock in the news reports on this topic. 

[samson]

It's too late for the people of Cyprus, their money is in the system and it will only be released when the government have took what they need to pay their European owners. At this point the secured bailout will bring a form of stability to the country.

People in Spain, Greece, Portugal and perhaps to a lesser extent Italy will be unsettled wondering if maybe they're next.

[Pteppic]

It's too late for the people of Cyprus, their money is in the system and it will only be released when the government have took what they need to pay their European owners. At this point the secured bailout will bring a form of stability to the country.

People in Spain, Greece, Portugal and perhaps to a lesser extent Italy will be unsettled wondering if maybe they're next.

Absolutely. With the capital restrictions and withdrawal limits I don't think it will be the Cypriots themselves heading our way.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/9951494/Cash-rationed-in-Cyprus-after-eurozone-inflicts-losses-on-biggest-bank.html

[w1R903]

Don't look toward Cyprus in the coming days.  Look toward Bitcoin adoption in Spain and Italy.  That's where the real impact of the situation in Cyprus will land.

[b!z]

Don't look toward Cyprus in the coming days.  Look toward Bitcoin adoption in Spain and Italy.  That's where the real impact of the situation in Cyprus will land.

Finally someone who understands the situation fully

[ArticMine]

It's too late for the people of Cyprus, their money is in the system and it will only be released when the government have took what they need to pay their European owners. At this point the secured bailout will bring a form of stability to the country.

People in Spain, Greece, Portugal and perhaps to a lesser extent Italy will be unsettled wondering if maybe they're next.

Absolutely. With the capital restrictions and withdrawal limits I don't think it will be the Cypriots themselves heading our way.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/9951494/Cash-rationed-in-Cyprus-after-eurozone-inflicts-losses-on-biggest-bank.html

They very well can head our way. They can withdraw 100 EUR a day from their bank accounts and buy Bitcoin in an Euro cost averaging way. One can build a decent Bitcoin portfolio by buying 100 EUR worth of Bitcoin a day even with current prices.

[The-Real-Link]

I'd imagine the rich accounts hit in Cyprus could also look this way too after getting slammed with a hit at all.  But true as was said, we can watch other countries' actions as being telling.  Cyprus started a precedent that really, should have never come to be, and that's scary.

[Bitobsessed]

https://twitter.com/BBCTimWillcox
 
Tim Willcox ‏@BBCTimWillcox 17m
#cyprus
State tv says Bank of Cyprus and Laiki to stay shut until Thursday. Other banks to open tomorrow

[justusranvier]

Don't look toward Cyprus in the coming days.  Look toward Bitcoin adoption in Spain and Italy.  That's where the real impact of the situation in Cyprus will land.

Karl "I piss on Bitcoin" Denninger has been writing accurate analyzes of the situation in Europe for a while, although he refuses to point out the obvious solution way for people who might be affected to escape.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=219106