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Author Topic: Shall we blame ASICs for yesterday's difficulty hike?  (Read 1768 times)
Nemo1024 (OP)
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March 25, 2013, 09:23:00 AM
 #1

Over the last months difficulty went both up and down, but always below 20% at a time. Yesterday's increase was a whopping 38% , bringing my total miners' returns from 0.06BTC per day to 0.04 Sad

Why such an abrupt increase? Is this something to be expected from the future?


24.03    6695826       38.13%
14.03    4847647       10.98%
01.03    4367876       19.63%
18.02    3651012       11.47%
05.02    3275465       10.33%
23.01    2968775       -8.64%
08.01    3249550       9.06%
26.12    2979637       -11.59%
10.12    3370182       -2.00%
26.11    3438909       -2.00%

“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
"I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume." -- Satoshi
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carborundum
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March 25, 2013, 09:28:34 AM
 #2

Over the last months difficulty went both up and down, but always below 20% at a time. Yesterday's increase was a whopping 38% , bringing my total miners' returns from 0.06BTC per day to 0.04 Sad

Why such an abrupt increase? Is this something to be expected from the future?


24.03    6695826       38.13%
14.03    4847647       10.98%
01.03    4367876       19.63%
18.02    3651012       11.47%
05.02    3275465       10.33%
23.01    2968775       -8.64%
08.01    3249550       9.06%
26.12    2979637       -11.59%
10.12    3370182       -2.00%
26.11    3438909       -2.00%

I'm inclined to be skeptical about the whole ASIC thing... the business model is too bizarre. Selling money printing machines??? There's a chunk of me saying "elaborate scam"

The difficulty hike I reckon comes from the same publicity that gave rise to the price hike. I'm guessing its a bunch more GPU's out there mining.

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March 25, 2013, 10:40:30 AM
Last edit: March 25, 2013, 01:17:07 PM by organofcorti
 #3

Over the last months difficulty went both up and down, but always below 20% at a time. Yesterday's increase was a whopping 38% , bringing my total miners' returns from 0.06BTC per day to 0.04 Sad

Why such an abrupt increase? Is this something to be expected from the future?


24.03    6695826       38.13%
14.03    4847647       10.98%
01.03    4367876       19.63%
18.02    3651012       11.47%
05.02    3275465       10.33%
23.01    2968775       -8.64%
08.01    3249550       9.06%
26.12    2979637       -11.59%
10.12    3370182       -2.00%
26.11    3438909       -2.00%

The network hashrate by about 20Thps during the last difficulty period. About 250 Avalons were added during that time, accounting for 16750 Ghps of the increase. So I think ASICs contributed about 80% of the difficulty rise.



Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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Nemo1024 (OP)
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March 25, 2013, 01:15:01 PM
 #4

Thanks for the explanations.
I am currently expanding my GPU miners from 5 to 6 cards. Was on the verge of preordering a Bitforce Little Single, but as carborundum said, this ASIC business seems just too good to be true, so I am holding off.

I bet there were the same quakes when GPU mining first entered the scene...

“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
creativex
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March 26, 2013, 12:10:07 AM
 #5

Thanks for the explanations.
I am currently expanding my GPU miners from 5 to 6 cards. Was on the verge of preordering a Bitforce Little Single, but as carborundum said, this ASIC business seems just too good to be true, so I am holding off.

I bet there were the same quakes when GPU mining first entered the scene...

Ironic that you'd reach that conclusion on the very day that Avalon opens their 3rd batch of ASICs for sale. Avalon being to date the only company to actually ship an ASIC mining product.

Nemo1024 (OP)
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March 26, 2013, 09:48:06 AM
 #6

Yes, but at 75BTC per unit, the price is beyond my reach. If only I learnt about them when batch 2 orders were still open... $1500 were at the pain threshold, by $5700 (at today's rate), sorry...

“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
creativex
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March 26, 2013, 02:27:22 PM
 #7

Yes, but at 75BTC per unit, the price is beyond my reach. If only I learnt about them when batch 2 orders were still open... $1500 were at the pain threshold, by $5700 (at today's rate), sorry...

No apology necessary. The price increase in USD terms was tough to take, though understandable given the lack of competition Avalon has in the marketplace. 

Vladimir
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March 26, 2013, 02:28:00 PM
 #8

Yes we shall thank miners who invested into ASICs. And next time you make some Bitcoin payment add some tip to the miner that will secure your block.


Some of us even got brain damage working hard on securing Bitcoin. LOL. No seriously.

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Beta-coiner1
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March 26, 2013, 08:40:58 PM
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I wonder if this could be the reason.It would be very shameful if it was I think.

organofcorti
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March 26, 2013, 09:18:19 PM
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I wonder if this could be the reason.It would be very shameful if it was I think.

No, the increase in hashrate is accounted for by the 300 Avalons and ASICMiner.

Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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