Bitcoin valuation

[hiima]

I'm in this for an all or nothing bet, either win big or lose all.

[manfred]

I'm in this for an all or nothing bet, either win big or lose all.

Never put all your eggs in one basket.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39704.html

[hiima]

I'm in this for an all or nothing bet, either win big or lose all.

Never put all your eggs in one basket.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39704.html

Not an all eggs in one basket deal, more of a the eggs in this basket are gonna ride it out all the way.

[MWNinja]

What do you see?

A glass that is twice the size it needs to be.  Do I win a prize?

[johnyj]

I did a very conservative valuation months ago:

Suppose that there are 2 billion internet users and 1/10 of them can handle bitcoin technically, that is 200m users. Suppose each of them will put a small fraction of their retirement saving into bitcoin, which averages 1000 USD, then each coin will worth 10K. Raise that percentage, 100K is not impossible

Since the coins people can get from exchange is only a small fraction of all the existing coins, 1 million USD per coin is also possible

And this is only one of the area of potential usage based on existing human society, what about those unknown opportunities happening in the future?

[mestar]

Instead of the cost of electricity being close to 1 btc for 1 btc mined, it actually converges to 1-(cost of hardware/btc produced over life of hardware).  Especially with asics coming online, this second term is significant.

No.  The cost of producing one BTC will always tend to be close to one BTC in a long run.  The cost of hardware, or the power efficiency can never change this.

[mestar]

Also, you are neglecting miners who consider the extra electricity as their investment capital and the bitcoin they earn as the asset they buy with that capital.  For that portion of the miners no USD funds are needed on the exchanges.

I already said this elsewhere.  Those miners that choose not to sell their bitcoins are in fact investing that cost into bitcoins, same as if they directly bought them on an exchange.

So, for each new created bitcoin to be "exchange neutral", one of two things must happen:
-somebody must buy some (significant) part of that coin from the miner, so miner can pay his costs
-miner itself must pay this cost

In any case, a fresh money must come from somewhere.

[notme]

Instead of the cost of electricity being close to 1 btc for 1 btc mined, it actually converges to 1-(cost of hardware/btc produced over life of hardware).  Especially with asics coming online, this second term is significant.

No.  The cost of producing one BTC will always tend to be close to one BTC in a long run.  The cost of hardware, or the power efficiency can never change this.

Right, but the analysis I was responding to ignore hardware cost and only looked a electricity.