Avalon ASIC Batch #2 Income Sharing; arrived and hashing

[ProfMac]

An event has happened, and this is notice that the auction is closing in 48 or more hours.
Auction is partially closed atl block 235,532, which is expected near the time of my birthday.  Bids included in later blocks will not win.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Number+of+minutes+until+3%3A15+AM%2C+May+10+divided+by+10

Fixed price sale is closed.

At this time, I have stopped accepting new payments to account 17Pq8oPtk8rikxZhF1wENFqR9YtDyLyr8E.

I will open a new address to auction additional shares.  The new details are posted below.
High bids listed here. Hand crafted post, some delays exist.
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I successfully purchased an Avalon Batch #2 unit, Order Number 2997, on Feb 18, 2013.  I desire to purchase an Avalon Batch #3 unit now.  Time is of the essence.

The Bitcoin address that transferred the funds for that order is visible to anyone on the blockchain.

For batch #3, a 3 module unit (63 GH/s) costs ฿72.36 and a 4 module unit (85GH/s) costs ฿99.14.  I am willing to share my mining income from the Batch #2 unit in order to fund the Batch #3 purchase.  You will be able to support a mining operation without investing the full amount of a miner.

No one knows whether a competing company will make an entry into the market, so it is not possible to make good estimates of future income.  Other companies may experience delays and we will be very content.  An unsuspected governmental player may turn on a large, privately developed farm and devastate us all.

However, this is a really good deal.  I expect to have my Batch #2 unit under way before any Batch #3 units are shipped.

The Offer

You may purchase 1/100 (1 share) of the income of my Avalon Batch #2 ASIC Miner for each BTC 0.8683 paid to address 17Pq8oPtk8rikxZhF1wENFqR9YtDyLyr8E
(This is the direct replacement cost + 20% for early availability and make-ready for administration and utilities.)
You may buy any number of shares that you choose.
You may purchase shares at any time that you chose.
The transaction information at blockchain.info determines the time and amount of purchase transactions.
I will manage the unit and mine it as well as I am able.
I will only pay out from actual income.
I may mine in any mixture of mining pool or solo mining.
The system will have downtime, and you will not have recourse.
I will cover all operating costs.
I can walk to 2 wind turbines from here.  Electricity is not that expensive.
I may buy back your shares at the same price at any time and for any reason.  
I may allow overbooking in order to buy a 4 module Batch #3 unit.
Any buy-back will be Last Purchased, First Refunded and sent to the original purchasing address.  Buy soon, not late!
The shared income will be paid from address 18bLcVkviErQi75zB8X39jZXxHNpSZggdC
Refunds will be paid from address 17Pq8oPtk8rikxZhF1wENFqR9YtDyLyr8E
I will pay by epochs.  A new epoch begins when someone purchases shares.
An epoch ends when I receive mining income or when I refund shares; it may end each week or month by declaration.
No gaps exist between epochs.
You may remain anonymous.  I don't need to know who you are, I will pay according to the blockchain.
Bitcoin is not taxed


Edited 2013-03-29 19:28:07 UT

I just made a deposit of 7.680025  BTC into the account.  The first deposit, 0.9906 BTC, is also mine, so I have 9.985748 shares.  These shares will be paid just like the others, and are the mechanism to guarantee the electric bill and other expenses.  In time, I will make another payment so that I own exactly 10 shares.

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[Dalkore]

What is the date and time this unit got confirmation from Walletbit of being fully paid for?


D

[zif33rs]

Someone must pay taxes on this income.  This is complicated and evolving.  If you are anonymous, I will deduct approximately 30% (to be determined) and give it to the IRS.  If you provide your name, street address, email address, telephone number, and tax ID, and sign this information with the same address that I send payment to I will not deduct for taxes.  I will fulfill any legal and tax obligations that I have in this area, including those I learn about in the future.

I would think you only have to pay taxes if you exchanged it to fiat? Till its converted its not really income is it?

[ProfMac]

What is the date and time this unit got confirmation from Walletbit of being fully paid for?


D

Receipt

This is to confirm that you have created an order at Avalon ASIC of 56.25712356 BTC

Payment Details

Date: February 18, 2013 07:35:01 PM
Amount Paid: 56.25712356
Batch Number: 18978
Txid: 5268c88176f24dcaae4e862e9ec1ad696a6915a20f1de9a7fe7042ad9b2f3b9b
Thanks for choosing WalletBit

Need Assistance?

We're happy to help by phone at US: (702) 799-9950 or DK: 36 96 56 94, Monday to Friday 9:00am to 1:00 pm EST, or by email.

[ProfMac]

Someone must pay taxes on this income.  This is complicated and evolving.  If you are anonymous, I will deduct approximately 30% (to be determined) and give it to the IRS.  If you provide your name, street address, email address, telephone number, and tax ID, and sign this information with the same address that I send payment to I will not deduct for taxes.  I will fulfill any legal and tax obligations that I have in this area, including those I learn about in the future.

I would think you only have to pay taxes if you exchanged it to fiat? Till its converted its not really income is it?

I don't know.  Has anyone checked on this?

I'm thinking back to some comments made by Colossus on the Second Life currency exchange that he ran.  If I can verify your opinion, I will keep a very low profile and not even look in the direction of the IRS.  I absolutely will deal only in bitcoin, and not fiat.

[chriswen]

If you're just transfering bitcoin its okay.

Also, i can't believe you're valuing it at 250 bitcoin.  Also, it will not be generating 5 bitcoins a day for 50 days.  Batch 3 is scheduled to start shipping 22 days after batch 2.

[ProfMac]

If you're just transfering bitcoin its okay.

Give me a credible citation and I'll do away with the tax part.

Also, i can't believe you're valuing it at 250 bitcoin.  

ok.  How about this.  There are two auctions on eBay.  I'll calculate the total cost in BTC this way:

The final cost of the eBay auction for the USD equivalent, and the weighted average of the bid price on Bitfloor going back at least 1 hour before the eBay close, and at least 50 executions.

and I will round down to the next smallest 10 btc.  For example, $10,200 / 78.45 --> 1/130 of the income per BTC

I'll even be generous and give you the better of the two deals.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/140937986794?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1438.l2649
http://www.ebay.com/itm/130873536329?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1438.l2648

Also, it will not be generating 5 bitcoins a day for 50 days.  Batch 3 is scheduled to start shipping 22 days after batch 2.

Give me a link for an analysis.

[paraipan]

Nice offer. Btw, you actually bought 4 units?

[ProfMac]

Nice offer. Btw, you actually bought 4 units?

I only had funds for 1 unit.  And Walletbit confused me a lot.  So 3 of the purchases were not real, and were cancelled.  I didn't expect my shopping cart to be public information, how did you find out?

[paraipan]

Nice offer. Btw, you actually bought 4 units?

I only had funds for 1 unit.  And Walletbit confused me a lot.  So 3 of the purchases were not real, and were cancelled.  I didn't expect my shopping cart to be public information, how did you find out?

Ah ok, never mind. Is all public info on the blockchain.

[Frankie Delaney]

There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon.  I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.  

This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day.

I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest.

[Rampion]

Really don't want to screw your post, but at least one of the auctions looks very scammy because of the bidding pattern. 250BTC is a high price indeed, and those auctions aren't solid enough to base the price on them imo.

I think you could share with us a scenario you expect based on difficulty projection and profitability decline per year factor - if the difficulty goes x2 there you go with 2.5BTC per day, with difficulty increasing week by week, imo that's the more likely scenario.

[Rampion]

There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon.  I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.  

This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day.

I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest.

This. And add that you never get 24/7 uptime. 250BTC is a lot and no way you get a ROI in 50 days, this is pure math.

[ProfMac]

There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon.  I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.  

This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day.

I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest.

jgarzik reported BTC 7.1 from his batch #1 unit in #bitcoin-dev yesterday or so, that's where I got that number.

1.22 / day / 250 means return your money in 204 days.
If that is too slow, don't buy in.  Don't use my estimates, get your own.  Your mileage may vary.
BLF will deliver overwhelming computational power in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr,
They may be redesigned to have ventricles. (Jerry Pournelle, if you are old enough to remember.)

[Frankie Delaney]

There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon.  I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.  

This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day.

I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest.

jgarzik reported BTC 7.1 from his batch #1 unit in #bitcoin-dev yesterday or so, that's where I got that number.

1.22 / day / 250 means return your money in 204 days.
If that is too slow, don't buy in.  Don't use my estimates, get your own.  Your mileage may vary.
BLF will deliver overwhelming computational power in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr,
They may be redesigned to have ventricles. (Jerry Pournelle, if you are old enough to remember.)

jgarzik found 2 blocks in 1 day, and made BTC50 in 1 day, why aren't you including that in your numbers.

[Rampion]

There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon.  I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.  

This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day.

I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest.

jgarzik reported BTC 7.1 from his batch #1 unit in #bitcoin-dev yesterday or so, that's where I got that number.

1.22 / day / 250 means return your money in 204 days.
If that is too slow, don't buy in.  Don't use my estimates, get your own.  Your mileage may vary.
BLF will deliver overwhelming computational power in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr,
They may be redesigned to have ventricles. (Jerry Pournelle, if you are old enough to remember.)

Don't be upset. Just run proper calculations with http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ taking into account a) current difficult, b) difficulty projection based on last two weeks increase, c) profitability decline, d) hashrate taking into account you won't get 24/7 uptime

You will see that 99% it will be impossible to get 250BTC back in 50 days with batch 2 Avalon.

[SolarSilver]

jgarzik found 2 blocks in 1 day, and made BTC50 in 1 day, why aren't you including that in your numbers.

Variance...

I'm getting about BTC 17 / day on BTC Guild which is currently in a streak of bad luck, so about BTC 5.6 / day per Avalon @ 70 GH/s

[ProfMac]

Really don't want to screw your post, but at least one of the auctions looks very scammy because of the bidding pattern. 250BTC is a high price indeed, and those auctions aren't solid enough to base the price on them imo.

I think you could share with us a scenario you expect based on difficulty projection and profitability decline per year factor - if the difficulty goes x2 there you go with 2.5BTC per day, with difficulty increasing week by week, imo that's the more likely scenario.

I don't want to defend any particular ROI scenario at all.  That is an area of pure speculation.

A lot of bright people read these forums.  Feel free to quote one of the more credible projections and build a case for a lower price.

I assume it is fairly transparent that I want to fund an Avalon Batch #3 purchase, but my only asset at the moment is the Batch #2 confirmed purchase.  I am willing to consider any reasonable changes to this offer with a view of producing liquidity soon.

[ProfMac]

There are various estimates of the bitcoin based daily income for the Avalon.  I think the consensus is between BTC 3 & BTC 7.  

This is bitcoin, bitcoin is about math. There is no consensus and there is no BTC7. RIGHT NOW, a 3 module avalon should make 4.9 per day. After batch 2 ships, it will be 3.5 a day, after batch 3 2.2 a day. This is assuming nobody else gets anything else on the network. batch 1 of BFL and stage 2 of ASICminer will knock it down to about 1.22 per day.

I'm not here to step on your toes, just trying to keep an honest miner honest.

jgarzik reported BTC 7.1 from his batch #1 unit in #bitcoin-dev yesterday or so, that's where I got that number.

1.22 / day / 250 means return your money in 204 days.
If that is too slow, don't buy in.  Don't use my estimates, get your own.  Your mileage may vary.
BLF will deliver overwhelming computational power in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr,
They may be redesigned to have ventricles. (Jerry Pournelle, if you are old enough to remember.)

jgarzik found 2 blocks in 1 day, and made BTC50 in 1 day, why aren't you including that in your numbers.

Those numbers suggest a full payback in 5 days with the 1/250 share model.  Thanks for mentioning them.

I don't think I will have income that high.  He was first, there will be 900 Avalons online when I am operational.

[davecoin]

Really don't want to screw your post, but at least one of the auctions looks very scammy because of the bidding pattern. 250BTC is a high price indeed, and those auctions aren't solid enough to base the price on them imo.

I think you could share with us a scenario you expect based on difficulty projection and profitability decline per year factor - if the difficulty goes x2 there you go with 2.5BTC per day, with difficulty increasing week by week, imo that's the more likely scenario.

I don't want to defend any particular ROI scenario at all.  That is an area of pure speculation.

Right there. Regardless of what the payback period is, this offer still allows people like myself to be a part of mining (although not a very hands-on one) and be an active part of the bitcoin community.  What method will you use for bookkeeping and payouts?  Can we request payouts to a particular address?  Do you plan to list on btct.co and allow shares to be traded? 

Thanks,
Dave