AFL ( Australian Football ) 2016 Finals Series Prediction Thread

[vella85]

Not sure how many Australians are on this forum but I thought I would start a topic on Australian football. The regular season has just finished and now it's finals time. Can Hawthorn make it 4 grand final wins in a row and equal Collingwood's record from the 1920's 

Week 1

West Coast v Western Bulldogs

Geelong v Hawthorn

Sydney v GWS Giants

Adelaide v North Melbourne

My tips

West Coast win

Sydney win

Adelaide win

The Geelong v Hawthorn game is a tough one to pick as both teams are even so I'll be waiting to see what the money line will be and I may pick Hawthorn at the line.

For people who bet in cryptocurrencies I know directbet takes bets on Australian Football so you could bet there. I know most sportsbooks bet on the AFL like bet365, sportsbet, williamhill and many others.

[Alex Jozz]

Again I saw a similar thread but at least it looks good turning it into several parts
It would be better if we look at the news related to this league not only prediction as in the other thread

[vella85]

Again I saw a similar thread but at least it looks good turning it into several parts
It would be better if we look at the news related to this league not only prediction as in the other thread

No worries mate, I'll try my best at giving detailed information on each game and team/s so people out there can make up their own minds when placing bets. The key most times with AFL betting is which players are playing and who might not be playing. Home ground advantage sometimes plays a factor but not as much as say soccer. Next season I'll be starting a topic on AFL predictions and betting as I have done very well betting on this sport and did very good on the weekend with getting 5/6 bets right. My loss was the Brisbane Lions as I had them at +51.5 but they lost by 58 points. The bets I won on were first quarter winners with Geelong, St Kilda, Sydney and  Collingwood.My 5th win was Collingwood +29.5

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[vella85]

Week 1 of the finals is here and tonight is the 1st game between the West Coast Eagles v Western Bulldogs.

It is played at West Coast's home ground where they have a good record playing the Bulldogs. The last 2 times the Bulldogs have played there they were smashed by 77 points and 65 points.

Stats:

1. The Eagles enter the finals having won their last four games and nine of their last 10. By contrast the Bulldogs have won three of their last six games. In round 23 against Fremantle the Bulldogs kicked 6.13 (49), their second lowest score of the season.

2. West Coast and the Western Bulldogs clash for the fourth time in finals, with the Eagles winning the most recent, a semi-final in 2006. The Eagles have won three of their last five finals. The Bulldogs have lost four of their last five and haven't won one since 2010.

3. The Eagles finished the home and away season ranked fifth for scoring, averaging 99 points per game. The Bulldogs ranked 12th for scoring, with only 84 points per game.

4. The teams have played 19 times at Domain Stadium. The Eagles have won 14 to four and there's been one draw. West Coast has won nine of 12 finals at Domain Stadium while the Bulldogs have lost all three finals played interstate.

5. West Coast holds a clear advantage marking the ball inside 50, averaging 13.8 per game. The Bulldogs are ranked equal 13th with 11.3 per game.

I think it will be a hard fought game and could be closer then the last 2 recent games played on this ground between these 2 teams.

My prediction:

West Coast Eagles to win @1.26 on DirectBet

Value bet: West Coast Under 39.5 pts @2.08

[vella85]

Last nights game was a shock loss as that was very unexpected loss to the West Coast Eagles. That was the 1st win in a final for the Western Bulldogs playing away from home.

Well on to tonight's game between the 2 best teams in the past 10 years Geelong v Hawthorn.

It going to be a wet night as it's been raining mostly all day and it's going to continue to rain through out the game so it's going to be close.

1. Dangerfield who plays for Geelong ran amok when the sides last met this season, starring with a game-high 43 disposals. Smith and Josh Caddy kicked three goals apiece.

2. Geelong's win in round one ended the Hawks' run of four consecutive wins and five from six. The Cats hold a big advantage over the Hawks since 2009, winning 13 games to five.

3. Geelong are ranked No.1 for marks inside 50 with an average of 15.2 per game, while Hawthorn is ranked 11th with 11.8 per match.

4. This will be the third time since 2013 the sides have met in finals, with one win each. They've played each other nine times in finals, with Hawthorn winning six.

5. The Cats have been impressive in the centre clearances, ranking No.2 with an average of 13.7 per game. The Hawks are ranked 11th in this area at 12.4 per match.

My prediction:

Geelong to win @1.59 on DirectBet

Value bet Geelong under 39.5 pts @2.10

And because it's going to be wet weather football, I think either team under 15.5 pts @2.48 is a good bet.

[vella85]

What a great game last night between Geelong and Hawthorn in the end Geelong won by 2 points 85 - 83 The 3 bets I picked all won making a nice little profit and makes up for the first final loss.

Today the 3rd final is on between Sydney v GWS

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
Round 12: Greater Western Sydney 15.15 (105) d Sydney Swans 9.9 (63) at Spotless Stadium
The home side's win in their 100th game in the competition was built on a stunning burst either side of half-time, when the Giants kicked seven of eight goals, with Swans ruckman Kurt Tippett injured just before the main break. GWS forwards Toby Greene and Steve Johnson shared six goals and 48 possessions.

Round three: Sydney Swans 14.9 (93) d Greater Western Sydney 10.8 (68) at the SCG
The Giants had some chances but were wasteful in front of goal, and the Swans' band of midfielders proved too good. All Australian trio Parker, Kennedy and Hannebery combined for 90 disposals, three goals and 21 tackles, while Franklin had the better of an absorbing duel with Davis to kick four goals.

1. When these teams last met, the Giants were one of only two teams to kick 100 points against the Swans this season, thanks to four goals to Toby Greene, and Steve Johnson's 27 disposals and two goals. Lance Franklin was the only multiple goalkicker for the Swans with two.

2. It will be a contest between one of the highest scoring teams, and the AFL's best defensive side this season. The Giants are ranked second for offence with 108 per game, and have kicked 100-plus points 11 times. The Swans boast the best defence this season, conceding only 67 points per game.

3. This clash is the 11th between the Sydney rivals. The Swans hold a big advantage, winning eight of 10 matches; the Giants' only wins occurred in round one, 2014 and in round 12 this season.

4. The Giants are the best clearance side in 2016, averaging 41.1 per game but the Swans aren't far behind, ranked third with 38.6 per game. The Giants are equal third for centre clearances.

5. The Swans enjoy an impressive finals history at ANZ Stadium winning eight of 10 games at the venue, but they did lose their last game there, against North Melbourne in the 2015 semi-final.

6. The Giants have played three times previously at ANZ Stadium for three losses, all to the Swans.Star Swans midfielder Josh Kennedy is ranked third in the Schick AFL Player Ratings, with his Giants counterpart and likely opponent Callan Ward (16th), his team's No.1 player.

My prediction:

Sydney to win @1.48 on DirectBet

Value bet Sydney under 24.5 pts @3.00

This game will be a close one as GWS have nothing to loose being it's there first time in a final's series so all the pressure will be on Sydney to win which I think they can but not by much.

I'll be back later to post my prediction on tonight's other final between Adelaide and North Melbourne.

[Mongwapogi]

When I saw the selected Hawthorn side I was disappointed not to see Hartung included in the starting side because he would be ideal to run with Dangerfield all match and just keep  harassing him. He is the only Hawthorn player who can out run Dangerfield in terms of both speed and endurance.

[BicolIsarog]

When I saw the selected Hawthorn side I was disappointed not to see Hartung included in the starting side because he would be ideal to run with Dangerfield all match and just keep  harassing him. He is the only Hawthorn player who can out run Dangerfield in terms of both speed and endurance.

Mate Danger would just outmuscle him, drift forward and kick a bag, if they wanted a run with role they would go Shiels,

or Langford who isn't playing I don't think.

[vella85]

Well Sydney are going to loose, GWS  just wanted the ball more today and deserve their win.

Last game is tonight where Adelaide take on North Melbourne in Adelaide.

North Melbourne have lost their past 3 games against Adelaide in Adelaide.

1. The Crows set a club record for behinds in a match kicking 12.28 when they beat the Kangaroos in round 14. Matt Crouch starred with 32 possessions and two goals.

2. Adelaide finished as the highest-scoring side in the home and away season averaging 113 points per game. North Melbourne finished eighth, with 89 points per game.

3. The Crows and Kangaroos clash for the 41st time. Adelaide holds a narrow advantage, winning 21 games to 19. Since 2013, Adelaide has won five of seven contests.

4. Adelaide is the top-ranked centre clearance side in 2016 averaging 14.3 per game, while North Melbourne is ranked sixth with 13.1 per game.

5. This is only the second time the two teams have met in the finals after the 1998 Grand Final, which the Crows won. North Melbourne has won its last two elimination finals.

My prediction:

Adelaide to win @1.14 DirectBet

Value bet North Melbourne +40.5 pts @1.77

If North Melbourne can find that winning form they had early on in the year then I think the line bet at 40.5 pts is the best bet.

[vella85]

I picked 2/4 from this weekend's finals with Geelong and Adelaide winning. I almost got the line bet with North Melbourne as they played well for the 1st half but fell away as Adelaide got on top and over ran North Melbourne in the end winning by 62 points with goal-sneak Eddie Betts kicking 6 goals. The Crows have set up a semi-final showdown with the Sydney Swans at the SCG next Saturday night and the winner of that game will play Geelong at the MCG in the second preliminary final on Friday night, September 23.

Next weeks games:

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs (MCG)

Sydney v Adelaide (SCG)

[vella85]

Week 2 of the AFL finals starts tonight with Hawthorn Vs Western Bulldogs in the 2nd semi-final.

This is going to be a great game and if the Western Bulldogs play like they did last week against West Coast I think they can win tonight.

1. The Bulldogs dominated disposals (418-331), clearances (+16) and led by 19 points at three-quarter time in round three but lost by three points, with Hawks young gun James Sicily booting three final-term goals.

2. The Bulldogs only average 85 points per game this season – the lowest of any top eight side - but kicked 14.15 (99) in the elimination final against West Coast. Hawthorn averages 96 points per game.

3. Hawthorn has won the past eight meetings between the sides since the Bulldogs' last win in round three, 2010. Only two of those games though have been at the MCG, with three at Etihad Stadium and three at Aurora Stadium.

4. The Bulldogs are likely to command the contested possession battle on Friday night. They average nearly 149 per match, compared to the Hawks' 131.

5. The Hawks have never lost to the Bulldogs in four finals, the most recent being the 51-point 2008 qualifying final victory.

6. The Hawks will field eight players in the top 100 of the Schick AFL Player Ratings compared to the Dogs' six, but star pup Marcus Bontempelli (No.6 overall) will be the highest ranked player on the ground.

My prediction:

Western Bulldogs under 39.5 pts @3.05 on DirectBet

Value bet Either team under 15.5 pts @2.52

I think it will be a close game but as I said if the Western Bulldogs play like they did last week they can win this game and earlier this year they only lost by 3 points against Hawthorn and it was only in the last minute of the game where Hawthorn won. So the Bulldogs can match it with the Hawks.

[vella85]

What a great game last night between the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn with the Western Bulldogs winning by 23 points. So for anyone who followed my prediction of the Western Bulldogs under 39.5 pts just made a nice amount of money as that was paying over $3 on DirectBet and even more on other Sports betting sites. I just missed out on either team under 15.5 pts with a late goal on the siren to end the game but even then it would of been 17 points so it didn't matter as I still would of lost that bet. Anyway it was still a nice profit for me and now I look forward to the next game later today between Sydney v Adelaide at the SCG and i'll be back later on to post my prediction for this match.

[FoendyZ]

today match australian league play off

Bentleigh Greens     Vs      Edgeworth E.       , Bentleigh Greens win   
Brisbane Strikers     Vs      Canberra Olympic    , Brisbane Strikers win      
Perth SC             VS      Devonport          , Perth SC win

[vella85]

today match australian league play off

Bentleigh Greens     Vs      Edgeworth E.       , Bentleigh Greens win   
Brisbane Strikers     Vs      Canberra Olympic    , Brisbane Strikers win      
Perth SC             VS      Devonport          , Perth SC win

Sorry mate this is the wrong topic to be posting these games as this is an AFL topic and not soccer. I don't think they have a topic for Australian soccer so maybe you can start one as the A-League will be starting soon here once the AFL is over.

[vella85]

The last final game of week 2 of the finals and it's semi-final 1 between Sydney V Adelaide at the SCG.

This is going to be another great game and the question is will the Sydney Swans bounce back after last week's loss to GWS.

1. These two teams kicked just five goals in the first half when they met in round four; the Swans then kicked seven goals to six in the third quarter, before the Crows finished the stronger side. Eddie Betts finished with four and Tom Lynch three. Lance Franklin and Isaac Heeney booted four goals each for the Swans.

2. Both sides have been strong in clearances this season; the Swans are ranked third averaging 38.7 per game, ahead of the Crows fourth at 38.6. In centre clearances the Crows are ranked first, compared to the Swans 11th.

3. This will be the third time these teams have met in finals; Adelaide won the first game, the 1998 second semi-final at the SCG, before the Swans won the second qualifying final in 2012 at AAMI Stadium. The Swans have lost four of their last five knock out semi-finals, while Adelaide has won two of their last four.

4. The Crows continue to be the highest scoring side in 2016, averaging 114 points per game, and last week against North Melbourne kicked 100 points in a game for the 17th time this season. The Swans average 98 points per game this season, but were held to 7.13 (55) last week against the Giants, their lowest score of the season.

5. The Swans will be playing their first final at the SCG since 2005, when they won a thrilling semi-final against Geelong. They have played five times at the SCG in finals for four wins, while Adelaide has lost seven of their last eight finals interstate.

6. Swan Dan Hannebery has jumped to 16th in the AFL's official player ratings after his 31-disposal effort against the Giants last week, with the star midfielder beginning the season ranked 32nd.

My Prediction:

Sydney to win @1.57 on DirectBet

Value bet Adelaide +11.5 pts @1.74

Sydney have won 4 out of the last 5 games played between these two teams and that is why I am picking Sydney to win plus they have a good record at the SCG. But I can't count out the Adelaide Crows, if they play like they did last week. Both teams are evenly matched across the ground except for the midfield where I put Sydney just ahead which is why I also picked them to win.

[vella85]

Last night's game was hard and tough for both teams with Sydney winning easily in the end by 36 points, 118 to 82. So far these finals series I'm well in profit from all my predictions. I bet 2% on my predictions and 0.5% on my value bets so it's 2 units and 0.5 units which I'll start adding from now on. The Geelong V Hawthorn game I had 3 tips and all came in and I had 2 units on the Geelong win 0.5 on Geelong under 39.5 pts and 1 unit on either team under 15.5 pts. So right now I am in front for this finals series so far with 2 more finals to go and then the Grand Final.

Next weeks games

Geelong v Sydney ( MCG )

GWS v Western Bulldogs ( Spotless stadium ) which is GWS home ground.

[vella85]

Week 3 of the AFL finals start tonight between Geelong V Sydney at the MCG. I'm looking forward to this game as it will be a close fought game between the 2 teams.

1. The Swans are the No.1 ranked defence, conceding only 68 points per game and allowing 100 points in just three games this season.

2. Both teams have been strong for inside 50s, with the Swans ranked third and the Cats fourth. Geelong is No.1 for marks inside 50, while the Swans are equal 10th.

3. The sides meet for the fourth time in finals and the Swans are undefeated, winning the most recent final between the two teams, in 2005. Geelong has lost two of its last three preliminary finals since 2010 and the Swans have won four of five since 2005.

4. This will be only the third time, and first time since 1934, the Cats and Swans meet at the MCG. Geelong is four wins from five games at the venue in 2016 and the Swans are one win from two games.

5. Geelong is ranked second for centre clearances. It's an area the Swans have struggled in, ranked 10th. Meanwhile, the Swans are second and the Cats are sixth in total clearances.

6. Swans small forward Tom Papley was the fourth-highest points scorer (20.4) overall in the Schick AFL Player Ratings last week courtesy of his career-best four goals against Adelaide.

Sydney had a tough brutal game last week against Adelaide with a couple of players going into the game tonight with slight injury concerns. Geelong had the weeks rest for winning the first final so they will be fresh and ready to go tonight while Sydney had a tough encounter last week.

My prediction:

Geelong to win @1.63 (2 units)

Geelong under 39.5 pts @2.22 (1 unit)

Good luck!

[vella85]

Sydney won last night's game easily by 37 points in the end. Geelong simply didn't turn up in the first half and Sydney kicked the first 7 goals to Geelong no goals in the 1st quarter which makes it very hard to come back from and it was in the end. Geelong did play better in the 2nd half but by that time Sydney already had a good lead and when Geelong did start to make a come back kicking a couple of goals in a row Sydney would get the next one and always have a 30+ points margin. I really thought that Geelong would be the better team by having a weeks break while Sydney had a tough game against Adelaide the week before but it looked like Geelong was not switched on and were not hard enough in the 1st half. Well we now move on to the last game of this weeks finals and we will see which team will face Sydney in next weeks grand final. I'll be back later to post my prediction on the GWS V Western Bulldogs game.

[vella85]

The 2nd final starts in just under an hour from now between GWS V Western Bulldogs. This is going to be a tough game to pick a winner as in my opinion both teams are evenly matched.

1. Jeremy Cameron kicked five goals and Toby Greene three in the Giants' win in round nine, while Heath Shaw had 36 kicks and 14 marks. Marcus Bontempelli had 32 touches for the Bulldogs.

2. In the month leading up to the finals the Bulldogs were struggling to score, averaging only 74 points per game; in their two finals so far that has increased to 103 points per game. The Giants have been one of the highest scoring sides this season kicking 107 points per game.

3. The Dogs will be playing in their first preliminary final since 2010 and will be looking for just their second-ever prelim win; their only other victory in the penultimate week of the season occurring in 1961 against Melbourne. Only four current Giants, excluding the suspended Steve Johnson, have played in preliminary finals and only two, Shane Mumford and Heath Shaw have played in a winning preliminary final.

4. The Giants have been the number one ranked clearance team for most of 2016 averaging 41.1 per game, while the Bulldogs have been mid-table most of the season, ranked ninth with 37 per game. GWS is ranked fifth for centre clearances and the Dogs 12th.

5. The Giants have dominated most opposition at Spotless Stadium in 2016, winning six of eight games, with four wins coming by more than 60 points. This will be the Bulldogs fifth interstate final, with their first win coming against West Coast a fortnight ago.

6. The Giants have five midfielders inside the top 100 of the AFL's official player ratings in Callan Ward (17), Dylan Shiel (20), Tom Scully (73), Ryan Griffen (80), and Stephen Coniglio (88). The Bulldogs have three, but apart from Marcus Bontempelli (5), Mitch Wallis (49) is injured, and Liam Picken (85) has been playing as a permanent forward in recent weeks.

My prediction

Western Bulldogs +21.5 pts @1.83 on DirectBet (2 units)

Value bet Western Bulldogs under 39.5 pts @3.60 (1 unit)

If Marcus Bontempelli can play like he did last week and inspire the Western Bulldogs, then I think they will win but if GWS can stop him and Liam Picken then that will help GWS go close to winning the game and that's why I like the Bulldogs @ +21.5 pts It will be a close game.

Good luck and hopefully these tips can get up.