Here's how you can anticipate a coming crash/correction

[Bitcoin BEAR]

Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

This, and the following 6  months of decline  can hardly be called a crash. Crashes don't take 6 months, Bear markets/corrections do. That was just a major wave-2, kind of like the major wave-4 decline that is inevitably to come.

Also, the use of client downloads as an indicator of adoption doesn't tell much when every new release is DL'd by the whole community. On top of that I have it on 4 different computers. On top of that, when a major flaw happens, requiring a patch/rewrite, then requiring us to DL the latest client or our blockchains will no longer be recognized by the network, that is a lot of downloads by the same people. I've personally DL'd 6 different client versions, on four different computers...So that's 24 DL's from one person. I'm sure others have done the same too.

And finally,Just like difficulty following price, so do new users. Where there is easy money to be made, there will be people there to sop it up. Don't think for a second that ALL these new users are here because they want to see Bitcoin succeed. They couldn't give a fuck less. They just want a get rich quick scheme that works, and they will leave just like many of the old users from the first "over-expansion" ( ) did

[mobile4ever]

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.

Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

[kayrice]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk

[Le Happy Merchant]

This isn't speculation.  It's perfectly reasonable to look for "metrics" to predict bitcoin's moves.

Someone elsewhere mentioned the backlog of Mt Gox customers that are waiting to get verified, which I would love to know.  But I don't know how anyone could know that short of working there.

Well, I can't tell you how they know, but I just sent in my verification request a week ago, and when I first did I was behind 4500 people in line. It says right on your account page once you request verification.

[notme]

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.

Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

You just backed up his claim. 

fell from $17 to pennies

If that's what you intended, good job.  Tough to say since the only nonquoted text in your post is "link".

[randrace]

This is great info, OP; thanks!

[Ares]

Great post, OP.

[Adrian-x]

Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

Crash to $17

[Adrian-x]

Very nice snake oil,
Than you it even works as an antidepressant

[phelix]

Nice list.

Please note some of these links are on http://blockchained.com too.

I will add the others asap.

[Jaagu]

I would refer to http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/ too.

[mobile4ever]

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.

Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

You just backed up his claim. 

fell from $17 to pennies

No, here is it w/more details:

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online.

The fall in bitcoin value happened after:

Mt. Gox Exchange Collapses Due To Compromised...

Sunday, June 19th, 2011. Gox, collapsed thanks to a hacked account. The unknown hacker(s) made an enormous sale of bitcoins from the compromised account, causing the price of the currency to fall from $17.5 to just pennies in a matter of minutes.

Hacked first, then the price fell later - very quickly.


Check out June 20 through  June 25th values of bitcoin at Mt Gox market here:


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv


Its empty.

[notme]

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.

Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

You just backed up his claim. 

fell from $17 to pennies

No, here is it w/more details:

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online.

The fall in bitcoin value happened after:

Mt. Gox Exchange Collapses Due To Compromised...

Sunday, June 19th, 2011. Gox, collapsed thanks to a hacked account. The unknown hacker(s) made an enormous sale of bitcoins from the compromised account, causing the price of the currency to fall from $17.5 to just pennies in a matter of minutes.

Hacked first, then the price fell later - very quickly.


Check out June 20 through  June 25th values of bitcoin at Mt Gox market here:


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv


Its empty.

I watched it happen in 2011.  You are wrong.  You're looking at the date the article was published, not the date the hack occured.

Order:
1. Priced topped around 32
2. Price fell to around 17
3. MtGox hacked
4. Price fell to 0.01ish based on forged account balances
5. Trading halted
6. Vulnerabilities fixed
7. Every trade that happened after step 2 was reversed
8. Trading resumed

Believe what you want.  You're allowed to be wrong.

[phelix]

[...]

I watched it happen in 2011.  You are wrong.  You're looking at the date the article was published, not the date the hack occured.

Order:
1. Priced topped around 32
2. Price fell to around 17
3. MtGox hacked
4. Price fell to 0.01ish based on forged account balances
5. Trading halted
6. Vulnerabilities fixed
7. Every trade that happened after step 2 was reversed
8. Trading resumed

Believe what you want.  You're allowed to be wrong.

this

Without the hack things would have gone differently...

[James Bond]

Thanks: a useful list with some sources I wasn't aware of.

I'd add:
- Google News number of results, though it doesn't give you data over time.
- Traffic results for bitcoin.it, the wiki, not just bitcoin.org.
- I refer to some other charts on BlockChain.info as well.

[James Bond]

I'd also add stats from this forum, both Alexa and stats the software produces, like users online.

[mobile4ever]

Believe what you want.  You're allowed to be wrong.

It is good I am not wrong.


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv


(Nothing between June 20 and June 25, 2011.)

[notme]

Believe what you want.  You're allowed to be wrong.

It is good I am not wrong.


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv


(Nothing between June 20 and June 25, 2011.)

That is correct.  Those dates are between when the hack happened and when trading resumed.  The price was already at $17 when the hack happened.  That's why it reopened at that price.  Look before the 20th.  There was more than a week of trading between the peak and when trading halted.  During this time price consolidated down to $17

[Gordonium]

Only correction there will be is correction upwards. At the moment Bitcoin might be the most undervalued asset in the history of finance.

[mobile4ever]

That is correct.  Those dates are between when the hack happened and when trading resumed.  The price was already at $17 when the hack happened.  That's why it reopened at that price.  Look before the 20th.  There was more than a week of trading between the peak and when trading halted.  During this time price consolidated down to $17

Why does arsetechnica say the price dropped, "...to just pennies in a matter of minutes."?
If you cant answer, please say you cant answer.