Here's how you can anticipate a coming crash/correction

[yuvadm]

How can you anticipate a coming crash correction? Take some coins off the table NOW, before the crash starts.

Trying to sell during the downfall is moot. We know gox trading engine can't handle the activity, and trying to put orders during peak trading results in severe losses.

[Mushoz]

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

The Bitcoin community faced another crisis on Sunday afternoon as the price of the currency on the most popular exchange, Mt.Gox, fell from $17 to pennies in a matter of minutes. Trading was quickly suspended and visitors to the home page were redirected to a statement blaming the crash on a compromised user account. Mt.Gox's Mark Karpeles said that the exchange would be taken offline to give administrators time to roll back the suspect transactions.

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online. The file included username, email addres, and hashed password for thousands of Mt.Gox users. Karpeles's statement was updated to acknowledge the breach. He warned users who have re-used the Mt.Gox passwords on other sites to change them.

Link:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/

You just backed up his claim. 

fell from $17 to pennies

No, here is it w/more details:

The extent of the compromise became clear when a copy of Mt.Gox's user database began circulating online.

The fall in bitcoin value happened after:

Mt. Gox Exchange Collapses Due To Compromised...

Sunday, June 19th, 2011. Gox, collapsed thanks to a hacked account. The unknown hacker(s) made an enormous sale of bitcoins from the compromised account, causing the price of the currency to fall from $17.5 to just pennies in a matter of minutes.

Hacked first, then the price fell later - very quickly.


Check out June 20 through  June 25th values of bitcoin at Mt Gox market here:


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-01zeg2011-07-31ztgTzm1g10zm2g25zv


Its empty.

I watched it happen in 2011.  You are wrong.  You're looking at the date the article was published, not the date the hack occured.

Order:
1. Priced topped around 32
2. Price fell to around 17
3. MtGox hacked
4. Price fell to 0.01ish based on forged account balances
5. Trading halted
6. Vulnerabilities fixed
7. Every trade that happened after step 2 was reversed
8. Trading resumed

Believe what you want.  You're allowed to be wrong.

I can confirm that this is the way it happened, I was following it when it happened.

[hgmichna]

Trying to sell during the downfall is moot. We know gox trading engine can't handle the activity, and trying to put orders during peak trading results in severe losses.

Very true. Apparently many of the new speculators, who are driving the price up now, are not aware of this.

It is not a specialty of Mt. Gox. The big stock exchanges deliberately halt trading in tumultuous times. The only difference is that Mt. Gox effectively halts or severely slows down trading because they have designed their system such that it halts frequently even under moderate load. They do this although it exposes them to the suspicion of front-running during these frequent delay phases. A simple base price for each transaction, like every other online broking system has, would easily prevent this, but they have not done that.

But no matter why they do it, speculators should be aware that there is no quick trading here when things get just a little tougher.

[phelix]

Trying to sell during the downfall is moot. We know gox trading engine can't handle the activity, and trying to put orders during peak trading results in severe losses.

Very true. Apparently many of the new speculators, who are driving the price up now, are not aware of this.

It is not a specialty of Mt. Gox. The big stock exchanges deliberately halt trading in tumultuous times. The only difference is that Mt. Gox effectively halts or severely slows down trading because they have designed their system such that it halts frequently even under moderate load. They do this although it exposes them to the suspicion of front-running during these frequent delay phases. A simple base price for each transaction, like every other online broking system has, would easily prevent this, but they have not done that.

But no matter why they do it, speculators should be aware that there is no quick trading here when things get just a little tougher.

word is the lag comes from them having to go through all the orders and check whether there is enough dough behind them. Tux wrote somewhere they will change it so that every order has to be backed, which should make the systems way faster. Hope they do this change soon.

[hgmichna]

word is the lag comes from them having to go through all the orders and check whether there is enough dough behind them. Tux wrote somewhere they will change it so that every order has to be backed, which should make the systems way faster. Hope they do this change soon.

But they don't have to go through all the orders. They only have to check whether an order is funded exactly once, when it is about to be executed. If it is not funded at that moment, it is deleted.

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

[shsmith]

Thank you OP.  It was helpful seeing this all collected in one place. 

[James Bond]

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

What's this base rate or base price you're talking about?

[Ares]

The google trend currently shows 0 when looking at the 90-day. I know it's a holiday weekend, but 0?

[zeroday]

Market depth graph shows that no crash can be expected in nearest days. Seems it will touch $100 very soon.

[James Bond]

The google trend currently shows 0 when looking at the 90-day. I know it's a holiday weekend, but 0?

It works for me and it just surpassed its all-time peak last week. The previous peak was June 12-18, 2011.

[James Bond]

Market depth graph shows that no crash can be expected in nearest days. Seems it will touch $100 very soon.

I remember it looked like the reverse of that before much of the recent runup.

[Ares]

The google trend currently shows 0 when looking at the 90-day. I know it's a holiday weekend, but 0?

It works for me and it just surpassed its all-time peak last week. The previous peak was June 12-18, 2011.

You don't see it at 0 when you go here?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q

I followed the link in the OP, then set the filter on the left to "past 90 days"

[James Bond]

You don't see it at 0 when you go here?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q

I followed the link in the OP, then set the filter on the left to "past 90 days"

I see it dropping to zero for the last data point when I use your link. Instead I look at a graph that goes from June 2010 to March 2013 (custom date).

[Ares]

You don't see it at 0 when you go here?

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&date=today%203-m&cmpt=q

I followed the link in the OP, then set the filter on the left to "past 90 days"

I see it dropping to zero for the last data point when I use your link. Instead I look at a graph that goes from June 2010 to March 2013 (custom date).

It's back to normal for me now. 20 Minutes ago it was a straight line down to 0 for March 31st, but only on the 90day view. Odd

[hgmichna]

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

What's this base rate or base price you're talking about?

A fixed amount for each transaction. Example: E*Trade asks for $9.99, less under certain circumstances, for each stock and options trade, 75¢ per options contract, and $1 per online bond trade, no matter which value.

Mt.Gox could solve its nuisance micro-order problem with much lower fees than those of E*Trade. And they would rid themselves of the front-running suspicion as well.

[lebing]

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

What's this base rate or base price you're talking about?

A fixed amount for each transaction. Example: E*Trade asks for $9.99, less under certain circumstances, for each stock and options trade, 75¢ per options contract, and $1 per online bond trade, no matter which value.

Mt.Gox could solve its nuisance micro-order problem with much lower fees. And they would rid themselves of the front-running suspicion as well.

Sounds like a solid business plan for a competitor...

[Sword Smith]

Bitcoin price is a google trends predictor.

+1
Excactly. The price seems to drive the interest more than the other way around although although both views are true to some degree. People like to make money.

[lebing]

Bitcoin price is a google trends predictor.

+1
Excactly. The price seems to drive the interest more than the other way around although although both views are true to some degree. People like to make money.

Technically, its a feedback loop so its circular, not single direction.

[hgmichna]

Mt.Gox could solve its nuisance micro-order problem with much lower fees [than E*Trade]. And they would rid themselves of the front-running suspicion as well.

Sounds like a solid business plan for a competitor...

Mt.Gox has captured a natural monopoly. Or, to explain it with a saying, translated from lower German, "The devil shits by the biggest heap."

Competition is possible, but the competitor would face a very steep up-hill struggle for a long while. Mt.Gox could lower their fees to much lower rates and still make money.

That said, I would greatly appreciate more competition.

[phelix]

word is the lag comes from them having to go through all the orders and check whether there is enough dough behind them. Tux wrote somewhere they will change it so that every order has to be backed, which should make the systems way faster. Hope they do this change soon.

But they don't have to go through all the orders. They only have to check whether an order is funded exactly once, when it is about to be executed. If it is not funded at that moment, it is deleted.

No, because another order could have freed money/coins to back another order.

Their actual problem is that they have no base rate, like every other online broker has. Therefore they have to process millions of tiny nuisance orders all the time. Bitcoin is not a micro-payment system anyway.

That I don't get either. Would be so simple.