Bitcoin Forum
September 03, 2015, 11:26:30 PM *
News: New! Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.11.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Here's how you can anticipate a coming crash/correction  (Read 15425 times)
bootlace
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 140


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 03:57:27 PM
 #1

If you're not a day trader, you might be overwhelmed with all the upward and downward price moves over the past couple of days. I've compiled a bunch of different data points tracking the growth of Bitcoin, hoping to help those who are concerned about the price fluctuation, whether Bitcoin is in a bubble, or whether the price has 'risen too quick'.

Currently all data points suggest Bitcoin is still growing, and that generally suggests prices moving higher.

So how to anticipate whether a price correction is coming or warranted? Following the data points below over time should warn you ahead of others if interest is waning. Until you see these charts start to slope down, I would not panic and would simply hold.

Disclaimer: I'm no financial adviser and hold no position in Bitcoin. Other unexpected factors could lead to a crash or correction so please act with caution and do your own research.
  

Google Searches: (Source: google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin)


Bitcoin client download on Sourceforge: (Source: sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline)


Wikipedia Bitcoin article traffic: (Source: stats.grok.se/en/latest90/Bitcoin)


Traffic to Bitcoin.org: (Source: alexa.com/siteinfo/bitcoin.org)


Domains linking to Bitcoin.org: (Source: ahrefs.com/site-explorer/overview/subdomains/bitcoin.org)


Number of Transactions: (Source: blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular)


Reddit.com/r/Bitcoin growth: (Source: stattit.com/r/Bitcoin/)


Mentions of Bitcoin on Twitter: (Source: analytics.topsy.com/?q=bitcoin)


If there's any additional ones, please mention and I'll add to the list.

145ZvkNef1TNPdDcGVperop1v574VSdZ9X
1441322790
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1441322790

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1441322790
Reply with quote  #2

1441322790
Report to moderator
The Bitcoin network protocol was designed to be extremely flexible. It can be used to create timed transactions, escrow transactions, multi-signature transactions, etc. The current features of the client only hint at what will be possible in the future.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1441322790
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1441322790

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1441322790
Reply with quote  #2

1441322790
Report to moderator
1441322790
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1441322790

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1441322790
Reply with quote  #2

1441322790
Report to moderator
1441322790
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1441322790

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1441322790
Reply with quote  #2

1441322790
Report to moderator
1441322790
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1441322790

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1441322790
Reply with quote  #2

1441322790
Report to moderator
Piper67
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 966


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 04:07:04 PM
 #2

This should be in the Speculation/Snake Oil subforum
bootlace
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 140


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 04:28:49 PM
 #3

This should be in the Speculation/Snake Oil subforum

Data points from 8 different sources are "snake oil" now? Factors affecting Bitcoin value is related to 1) its usefulness and 2) how much demand there is - the data points aims to analyze the second factor in an objective and measurable fashion.

145ZvkNef1TNPdDcGVperop1v574VSdZ9X
Herodes
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 04:32:21 PM
 #4

move to speculation.
freequant
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 588


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 04:36:28 PM
 #5

Interesting, thanks for the query urls.
If there was a way to weigth these factors, that would make some good index.
meebs
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 364


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 04:38:34 PM
 #6

I for one thank the OP for the work he put into this thread.

It is interesting to have in a quantitative manner what is going on with user interest.

If you enjoyed the advice I gave, feel free to toss over some loose change Smiley
1P67xUSyCchQSwngptRVBKso4mMEZMGALZ
Zangelbert Bingledack
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 924


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 05:04:05 PM
 #7

Win post. Speculation and /r/Bitcoin will love this.
mobile4ever
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 05:31:34 PM
 #8

If you have an alternative link to replace the Google trends link, they require an account to see their data.

Good info though, and thanks for revealing this.
bg002h
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288


Got GLIPH? https://gli.ph/m *p-d-d


View Profile WWW

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 05:48:43 PM
 #9

Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

My very own Casascius Bearer Bar: 1GCDzqmX2Cf513E8NeThNHxiYEivU1Chhe
lleibowitz
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 37



View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 05:58:49 PM
 #10

Very nice compilation, thanks for putting this together. I would love to see some kind of "normalized index" that crunches all this data into one single number.
lettucebee
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 253



View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 06:04:42 PM
 #11

This isn't speculation.  It's perfectly reasonable to look for "metrics" to predict bitcoin's moves.

Someone elsewhere mentioned the backlog of Mt Gox customers that are waiting to get verified, which I would love to know.  But I don't know how anyone could know that short of working there.
bootlace
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 140


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 06:46:08 PM
 #12

Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest, so this analysis is not suitable for those types of unexpected events. (although here's the graph if you wish to take a look at it regardless http://i.imgur.com/cz1ETwj.png?1)

I believe at this stage a lot of the price surge can be attributed to people expecting (and already factoring in) further demand increases as the Cyprus situation spreads to other countries. I'm saying this because Bitcoin has not warranted a rise to $90+ based on its 'usefulness' aka new businesses accepting it. If this run up had come on the heels of multiple major businesses accepting Bitcoin and not the Cyprus situation, then a different analysis would be required.

145ZvkNef1TNPdDcGVperop1v574VSdZ9X
Jobe7
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 224


Don't eat yellow snow.


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 06:52:17 PM
 #13

[qoute]Disclaimer: I'm no financial adviser and hold no position in Bitcoin. Other unexpected factors could lead to a crash or correction so please act with caution and do your own research.[/qoute]

This bit.

People should look into the political aspect of things globally, and obviously keeping on track of new business ventures and whats coming the corner. That will give you a clearer idea of what to expect.

bootlace
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 140


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 10:04:38 PM
 #14

This should be in the Speculation/Snake Oil subforum

Data points from 8 different sources are "snake oil" now? Factors affecting Bitcoin value is related to 1) its usefulness and 2) how much demand there is - the data points aims to analyze the second factor in an objective and measurable fashion.

The snake oil comes in because the correlations are dubious.

Visits on a website are not indicators of demand, the amount of tweets neither. Interest, yes. Not at all the same thing.



I would argue that at this point in Bitcoin's life-cycle, new demand is directly correlated with interest. Perhaps 0.01% (made up number) of anyone who hears about Bitcoin decides to try it out, so an increase in the amount of people who hear about it does in fact convert to demand pretty reliably - this is the premise by which online advertisement works as well (conversion rates etc).

Snake oil has connotations of trying to trick someone or being fraudulent, it is rather upsetting to be labeled as such when I spent time and effort trying to provide some value to the community. If I was trying to trick people I would have not advised people to hold, because I'm personally looking to buy.

145ZvkNef1TNPdDcGVperop1v574VSdZ9X
Stephen Gornick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1666



View Profile WWW

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 10:28:08 PM
 #15

But I don't know how anyone could know that short of working there.

Periodically a number will be shared on the #mtgox irc channel.

7,700 was the number given within the past 24 hours.

Elwar
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1498


www.bitpools.com


View Profile WWW

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 10:44:52 PM
 #16

Bitcoin price is a google trends predictor.

http://www.bitpools.com
Pool your bitcoins with others. Vote on solutions using the Bitcoin blockchain. Keep your bitcoins in your cold storage until you find a solution you like.
Links and Reviews of useful every day places to spend bitcoins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943143.0
mobile4ever
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 518


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 10:57:43 PM
 #17

Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest, so this analysis is not suitable for those types of unexpected events.


You are right:

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/06/bitcoin-price-plummets-on-compromised-exchange/


Which is why the bad folks can still control the price of bitcoin, since if they have big hacking abilities, those same evil abilities can be a biiiig temptation. Only they will know when the right time is to sell, thanks to centralized bitcoin markets.
BitcoinTate
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 224


DigiByte Founder


View Profile

Ignore
March 29, 2013, 11:13:14 PM
 #18

It would be interesting to take this data and further divide it into geographic regions. I would me mostly interested in search trends, links etc from Europe in the past two weeks so see how much capital is going to be dumped into BTC by EU residents in the next two weeks.

- aka The "DigiMan"
foo
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 409



View Profile

Ignore
March 30, 2013, 12:37:02 AM
 #19

Did anyone look back at the 6/11 crash? I think these curves lag the crash considerably.

If I'm not mistaken the 6/11 crash occurred due to a hack, not falling interest

No. Wrong. The price had dropped to $17 before the Mt.Gox incident.

I know this because Tyler knows this.
Missionary
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 224



View Profile WWW

Ignore
March 30, 2013, 12:53:37 AM
 #20

Interesting graphs. Thanks for posting!

I am an evangelical missionary heading to China. Donations are welcome here (dedicated wallet): 1H8iswayfTaRb6oe2WjMCRmchBJHYyfx9z
You can find more information about my plans here: http://btcmission.com
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!