Hi,

We know that Bitcoin network **in average** generates **one block per 10 minutes**.

Is there a formula to compute the probability that the entire network generates **two or more than two blocks (at least two blocks) in less than 10 minutes** ?

Thanks

because the average is 10 minutes.. obviously its a very low chance of being exactly 10minutes 0 seconds..

however lets start with basic maths/logic/common sense.

because its an average there is a automatic assumption that 50% chance of being less than 10 minutes, 50% chance of being more then 10 minutes. all because of common sense that an average is an average

now to go beyond 50:50 average

then you have to add in extra data such as how much the hashrate has risen when you want to predict the next 'chance' compared to the hash rate when the difficulty last changed ,

usually hashrate is on an upward rise, usually difficulty is also in an upward rise which would lead to the chances of a block being solved in under 10 minutes to be much higher then the expectant 50:50

though this is not always the case, sometimes hashrates drop and difficulty drops so its not always a higher chance of faster block production

next you have to look at who is making the blocks. are they fully auditing the blocks received before starting a new attempt or are they starting a new attempt(empty block) before auditing a blocks received.

in short

if you see pools making empty blocks and the hashrate is alot higher then when the difficulty changed.. expect fast blocks production

if you see pools are not making empty blocks and the hashrate is lower then when the difficulty changed.. expect slower blocks production

but with all predictions.. its more guess than science