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 Author Topic: predicting number of generated blocks under 10 minutes by the entire network  (Read 525 times)
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 September 18, 2016, 04:05:33 PM

Hi,

We know that Bitcoin network in average generates one block per 10 minutes.

Is there a formula to compute the probability that the entire network generates two or more than two blocks (at least two blocks) in less than 10 minutes ?

Thanks
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franky1
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 September 18, 2016, 04:27:53 PM

Hi,

We know that Bitcoin network in average generates one block per 10 minutes.

Is there a formula to compute the probability that the entire network generates two or more than two blocks (at least two blocks) in less than 10 minutes ?

Thanks

because the average is 10 minutes.. obviously its a very low chance of being exactly 10minutes 0 seconds..

because its an average there is a automatic assumption that 50% chance of being less than 10 minutes, 50% chance of being more then 10 minutes. all because of common sense that an average is an average

now to go beyond 50:50 average
then you have to add in extra data such as how much the hashrate has risen when you want to predict the next 'chance' compared to the hash rate when the difficulty last changed ,

usually hashrate is on an upward rise, usually difficulty is also in an upward rise which would lead to the chances of a block being solved in under 10 minutes to be much higher then the expectant 50:50
though this is not always the case, sometimes hashrates drop and difficulty drops so its not always a higher chance of faster block production

next you have to look at who is making the blocks. are they fully auditing the blocks received before starting a new attempt or are they starting a new attempt(empty block) before auditing a blocks received.

in short

if you see pools making empty blocks and the hashrate is alot higher then when the difficulty changed.. expect fast blocks production
if you see pools are not making empty blocks and the hashrate is lower then when the difficulty changed.. expect slower blocks production

but with all predictions.. its more guess than science

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 September 18, 2016, 04:35:03 PM

Don't know the actual probability but have seen several blocks even more than 2 blocks found out within 10 minutes because network itself try to adjust block per 10 minute so if there was no any block found in last 1 hour or for last 30 minute, than chance of getting next two blocks found within 10 minute is high.

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franky1
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 September 18, 2016, 04:39:45 PM

Don't know the actual probability but have seen several blocks even more than 2 blocks found out within 10 minutes because network itself try to adjust block per 10 minute so if there was no any block found in last 1 hour or for last 30 minute, than chance of getting next two blocks found within 10 minute is high.

the network only adjusts itself once every 2 weeks..

the relevance of 2 blocks solved in 10 minutes does not affect the speed of the next couple of blocks..
however hashrate, orphans and starting a new attempt before auditing the previous block has more affects than anything

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Don't take any information given on this forum on face value. Please do your own due diligence & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. If you wish to seek legal FACTUAL advice, then seek the guidance of a LEGAL specialist.
Carlton Banks
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 September 18, 2016, 05:06:25 PM

Hi,

We know that Bitcoin network in average generates one block per 10 minutes.

Is there a formula to compute the probability that the entire network generates two or more than two blocks (at least two blocks) in less than 10 minutes ?

Thanks

because the average is 10 minutes.. obviously its a very low chance of being exactly 10minutes 0 seconds..

because its an average there is a automatic assumption that 50% chance of being less than 10 minutes, 50% chance of being more then 10 minutes. all because of common sense that an average is an average

[drivel edit]

but with all predictions.. its more guess than science

Franky, there's an actual branch of mathematics dedicated to calculating probability. Maybe you can learn about it and work that into your "2+2=Hard Fork or everyone dies" rhetoric, lol.

Until then, be quiet, grown-ups may like to discuss this topic.

Vires in numeris
Lauda
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 September 18, 2016, 05:38:09 PM

There's a very good post on StackExchange regarding the block distribution probability in addition to illustration from Wolfram Alpha. However, it won't completely answer you question. You'd have to apply some math in order to extrapolate the right answer from it.

-snip-
Stop posting long stories that actually don't contain much useful information. This isn't "more of a guess than science".

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 September 18, 2016, 05:39:58 PM

I mean the probability that the network generates at least two blocks within 10 minutes by using current hashrate of the network and current difficulty level.
For example is it possible to use https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Generation_Calculator for this purpose ?

Thanks
Lauda
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 September 18, 2016, 05:45:26 PM

For example is it possible to use https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Generation_Calculator for this purpose ?

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 September 18, 2016, 06:19:06 PM

There's a very good post on StackExchange regarding the block distribution probability in addition to illustration from Wolfram Alpha. However, it won't completely answer you question. You'd have to apply some math in order to extrapolate the right answer from it.

Thank you for the link. There is a similar question :

Quote
i.e. How many blocks are found before the mean (10 minutes)?

but I wonder the answer :

Quote
i.e. 1-exp(-1) ~= 63.212%

why the answer is in percent ?

Thanks
Lauda
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 September 18, 2016, 06:36:20 PM

why the answer is in percent ?
Thanks
I don't quite understand the point of this question. The chance of something occuring (and stats) are usually expressed in percentages.

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 September 18, 2016, 06:39:40 PM

-snip-
Stop posting long stories that actually don't contain much useful information. This isn't "more of a guess than science".
Please do not ask franky to stop. Actually I have learned many things from his posts for months.

Only very few people are sharing their understanding (like franky), others write what they read.

To understand block chain's core concepts, we need to make some assumptions time to time as we do not have many cross references for Satoshi's works.

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shovon234
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 September 18, 2016, 06:45:40 PM

I do not know the chances, but the server blocks can be found in two blocks in 10 minutes.It is due to the network and is not a block in  1 hour,After two blocks is a chance to get out
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 September 18, 2016, 07:10:20 PM

Please do not ask franky to stop. Actually I have learned many things from his posts for months.
Then you've unfortunately learned a lot of wrong things.

Only very few people are sharing their understanding (like franky), others write what they read.
Franky is either a troll or has a very flawed understanding of the protocol. They sometimes (rarely) make sense and write something that true (ergo I can agree with it).

I do not know the chances, but the server blocks can be found in two blocks in 10 minutes.It is due to the network and is not a block in  1 hour,After two blocks is a chance to get out
I don't even understand what you're trying to say here. Whatever it is, it seems to be wrong.

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Carlton Banks
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 September 18, 2016, 07:15:24 PM

-snip-
Stop posting long stories that actually don't contain much useful information. This isn't "more of a guess than science".
Please do not ask franky to stop. Actually I have learned many things from his posts for months.

Only very few people are sharing their understanding (like franky), others write what they read.

To understand block chain's core concepts, we need to make some assumptions time to time as we do not have many cross references for Satoshi's works.

lol Franky, don't make me break out the Cartman's Tea Party jpeg again

"Why thank you Beerlover, you're super-smart and much intelligence than Polly-Pissy-Pants, you're my best friend"

Vires in numeris
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 September 18, 2016, 07:47:16 PM

An answer to find the probability that a number of x blocks to be found in a time frame in which you would expect to find λ blocks is found here :

bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/22978/how-can-we-be-sure-that-a-new-block-will-be-found/22984#22984

where x = 2 or more and λ = 1.

Any comment for this response is appreciated.

Thanks
Senor.Bla
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 September 18, 2016, 08:57:07 PM

An answer to find the probability that a number of x blocks to be found in a time frame in which you would expect to find λ blocks is found here :

bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/22978/how-can-we-be-sure-that-a-new-block-will-be-found/22984#22984

where x = 2 or more and λ = 1.

Any comment for this response is appreciated.

Thanks

we are discussing a poisson process here so this seems to me to be the right answer. 18.39%
the 63% from further above meant, that 2 out of 3 times a block is mined under 10 min. this might seem odd to some since we have an average of 10 min. but consider this.
if we have a block mined in 30 min. (20 min away from average) we would need the next block to be mined negative 10 min to even this out. or the next 2 blocks in 0 min.
and there you have your 2 out of 3. so anyway, i hope this sounds reasonable. it is not that easy to explain without getting to technical.

BTW i prefer franky over 99% of senseless posts here in this forum.

Carlton Banks
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 September 18, 2016, 09:08:48 PM

we are discussing a poisson process here so this seems to me to be the right answer. 18.39%
the 63% from further above meant, that 2 out of 3 times a block is mined under 10 min. this might seem odd to some since we have an average of 10 min. but consider this.
if we have a block mined in 30 min. (20 min away from average) we would need the next block to be mined negative 10 min to even this out. or the next 2 blocks in 0 min.
and there you have your 2 out of 3. so anyway, i hope this sounds reasonable. it is not that easy to explain without getting to technical.

BTW i prefer franky over 99% of senseless posts here in this forum.

*ahem*

Would you agree, seeing as you understand the math here, that it's Franky making non-sensical posts about probability in this thread? It appears he's unaware of the concept of dependent/independent trials

Vires in numeris
franky1
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 September 18, 2016, 09:09:54 PM

lauda
you wrote a reply that may have actually helped answer the OP question, kinda respect that your now researching things, but even you have to admit its not a complete answer.. because predictions* cannot be guaranteed when there is a bit of randomness involved.
but atleast you provided an answer
*it lacks all the factors of bitcoin to be termed a reliable probability.

carlton
troll on.. none of your replies helped the OP in anyway. but its funny how you follow lauda around backing each other up.
seems many of your replies on many topics never help the topic and are just trolls. but goodluck in life.

OP
when using predictions its best to get multiple answers that can either back each other up a good answer or dismiss a certain wrong answer.
that way you get a broader opinion and 'guess' of the chances blocks will get solved more often than not.

EG
if you see hashrate drop.. expect the stats from the links provided by others, to shift over to a higher percentage after 10minutes
if you see hashrate rise.. expect the stats from the links provided by others, to shift over to a higher percentage under 10minutes
as it would give you a second opinion to how reliable the maths may be

lets put it simply..
imagine you have got data of 1008 blocks and the majority of them were over 10 minutes..
because things like the difficulty went up so high prior to the 1008 blocks and hashrate dropped
i would not say that there is a probability that the remaining 1008 blocks will be under 10 minutes.

because the difficulty and hashrate have not moved in favor of faster blocks and so all 2016 blocks will be majority over 10 minutes.
unless the hashrate changes drastically or until the difficulty dropped to allow the next fortnight of blocks to be under 10minutes to counter the previous fortnight..

the network doesnt change difficulty hourly or daily to keep the average at 10 minutes.. so there is not much 'probability' within an hour or within the 2 week period. but you could 'probably' (if you factor in enough variables) predict that the following 2 weeks will be faster, due to previous 2 weeks being slower.

its not a simple if 2 blocks are under 10 minutes, then theres 2 blocks over 10 minutes in the same hour
its based on an average over a LONG PERIOD(fortnight)

if your looking for more short term predictions (educated guesses) there are other factors involved
like hashrate,
like spam/dodgy transactions/blocks made to force orphans/delays
like starting a new block attempt before auditing last block ('empty blocks')
which would all need to be factored in along side the time ratio before the last difficulty change, for even a chance to get a somewhat reliable 'probability'

anyway
imagine you have got data of 1008 blocks and the majority of them were over 10 minutes..
if pools decide to continue to cut the hashrate down, blocks will continue to take longer..
if pools decide to ramp up hashrate you can predict that its possible to see more blocks under 10 minutes. but still not probable.

because of other factors mentioned

so unless you can mathematically factor all of that in.. it wont be a probability, but more of just a possibility (guess/prediction)
others say there is a branch of maths that can make probabilities.. (mainly semi accurate from one difficulty adjustment to the next)
short term maths calculations can change faster then you can type it in (due to the other factors)

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jackg
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 September 18, 2016, 09:13:25 PM

Hi,

We know that Bitcoin network in average generates one block per 10 minutes.

Is there a formula to compute the probability that the entire network generates two or more than two blocks (at least two blocks) in less than 10 minutes ?

Thanks

For that to happen, the network difficulty would have to double at some point within the several thousand bloks that it changes for!
This may have happened before, but it will not likely happen again! As that means that there would be the equivalent of two clones of an original bitfury, bitmain and bw along with the initial ones.

However, I've seen blockes mined within 2 minutes of the previous block befoe!

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Carlton Banks
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 September 18, 2016, 09:16:34 PM

predictions

Predictions and probability are not synonyms you ass hat lol. Stick to things you're capable of, like basic arithmetic (remember, your "2 + 2 = I'm right about everything" strategy)

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