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Author Topic: what is killing bitcoin by drastically deflating it?  (Read 3395 times)
aarreeaa (OP)
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March 30, 2013, 10:44:42 PM
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Many bitcoin holders may feel like its a good thing that bitcoin -> $ value doubled within past few weeks,
but thats terrible news for people who sell stuff and would like to accept bitcoin...
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Mike Christ
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March 30, 2013, 10:47:14 PM
 #2

Many bitcoin holders may feel like its a good thing that bitcoin -> $ value doubled within past few weeks,
but thats terrible news for people who sell stuff and would like to accept bitcoin...

It's a newborn for starters, and because there's a fixed supply and a forever increasing pool of adopters, the value is set to rise until everyone knows what Bitcoin is and has decided they want it or don't want it.

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March 30, 2013, 10:55:30 PM
 #3

I'm not at all happy with the wild fluctuation either. The best solution may be to design trading algorithms that are designed to buy and/or short-sell during dramatic price swings. I hope to develop the technical expertise to do that over the next couple of years.
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March 30, 2013, 11:01:05 PM
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but thats terrible news for people who sell stuff and would like to accept bitcoin...

A few weeks ago a merchant that sold an item for $100 dollars worth of bitcoins got paid about $100 dollars worth of bitcoin.  If that merchant then used those coins for making purchases or cashed them out, that merchant got about $100 dollars worth of value from them.

Today a merchant that sells an item for $100 dollars worth of bitcoins gets paid about $100 dollars worth of bitcoin.  That merchant can then use those coins for making purchases or cash them out and that merchant will get about $100 dollars worth of value from them.

What is the difference for the merchant between the situation a few weeks ago and the situation today?

Now if you are saying the merchant may not want to hold bitcoins at this higher valuation because the risk of the exchange rate decreasing, then there are methods for merchants to hedge, such as buying PUT options or to sell futures contracts on ICBIT, so that the merchant can "lock in" at today's value yet still hold that value in the form of bitcoins.  

Ideally though, the merchant will have vendors, employees and investors to pay so that bitcoin revenues can be used for that spending rather than simply getting cashed out to fiat as part of each transaction.

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aarreeaa (OP)
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March 30, 2013, 11:34:16 PM
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...
What is the difference for the merchant between the situation a few weeks ago and the situation today?
...
I guess, that would be frustration - more $ could be made by doing nothing.
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March 30, 2013, 11:50:15 PM
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I guess, that would be frustration - more $ could be made by doing nothing.

 Huh     Huh

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fractal5
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March 31, 2013, 12:40:56 AM
 #7

when the bitcoin economy reaches 100 billion there will be enough competition amongst trade exchanges etc that the price will steadily rise predictably, which will actually be good news for merchants.
Trading can only reduce volatility and never eliminate it because steadily rising prices causes people to make leveraged buys, which swings the price up. For example since the USD prime rate is 0.25% a major bank could push hundreds of billions of dollars into Bitcoin by borrowing from the fed at .25%. When they sell Bitcoins to pay back the loan it swings back down.
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March 31, 2013, 12:48:59 AM
 #8

Now that someone was kind enough to write https://www.bridgewalkerapp.com/ we can finally put an end to this nonsense.

If you are "afraid" of the fact bitcoin keeps going up in value, you can use this app accept and spend BTC, while holding dollars. You will be 100% protected from the horrible "volatility" that every Bitcoin holder I know of is actually thrilled with.

I have to say, hats off to the author. I suspect hardly anyone will use it, but it's the best troll-killer ever.
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March 31, 2013, 01:26:31 AM
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Yes...I'm sure all the bitcoin retailers are just loathing the dramatic increase in the price of the bitcoins that they are receiving

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March 31, 2013, 06:06:24 AM
 #10

Now that someone was kind enough to write https://www.bridgewalkerapp.com/ we can finally put an end to this nonsense.

If you are "afraid" of the fact bitcoin keeps going up in value, you can use this app accept and spend BTC, while holding dollars. You will be 100% protected from the horrible "volatility" that every Bitcoin holder I know of is actually thrilled with.

I have to say, hats off to the author. I suspect hardly anyone will use it, but it's the best troll-killer ever.

wow what a good idea.  troll-killer for sure

yeah baby yeah
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March 31, 2013, 08:21:46 AM
 #11

Until it finds its place in the economy and such, it is going to go through these wild fluctuations. What you can do is predict them and find out when they are going to occur, so you can do what favours you Smiley
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March 31, 2013, 08:26:39 AM
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I wish the price would stabilize
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March 31, 2013, 08:31:12 AM
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I have a feeling if it starts dropping it will go down as fast as it went up with people trying to lock in their profits.
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March 31, 2013, 09:25:24 AM
 #14

BTCWhen do you think it will reach $100 USD?
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March 31, 2013, 09:58:46 AM
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soon i thinks  Smiley
puax
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March 31, 2013, 01:04:58 PM
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Re: price swings and how they affect merchants - there's a menu cost. You need to change your price as BTC moves around since your inputs are likely denominated in your local currency, but your output is priced in BTC.
jwzguy
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March 31, 2013, 06:18:26 PM
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Re: price swings and how they affect merchants - there's a menu cost. You need to change your price as BTC moves around since your inputs are likely denominated in your local currency, but your output is priced in BTC.
Keep your menu price in local currency, use a BTC quote at time of checkout. It's not rocket science.
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March 31, 2013, 06:19:45 PM
 #18

Re: price swings and how they affect merchants - there's a menu cost. You need to change your price as BTC moves around since your inputs are likely denominated in your local currency, but your output is priced in BTC.
Keep your menu price in local currency, use a BTC quote at time of checkout. It's not rocket science.

But what if you put Bitcoin on a rocket and flew it to Mars?

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March 31, 2013, 06:45:28 PM
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Re: price swings and how they affect merchants - there's a menu cost. You need to change your price as BTC moves around since your inputs are likely denominated in your local currency, but your output is priced in BTC.
Keep your menu price in local currency, use a BTC quote at time of checkout. It's not rocket science.

But what if you put Bitcoin on a rocket and flew it to Mars?

well the time of flight for light to mars is about 20min. so don't get your hopes up about mining for bits way out there. although transactions would still work perfectly fine supposing you had a downlink to an earth based station.

but coming out of the sci-fi scenario for a sec, depending on the business you do, having a script in place to adjust the sale price of an item to the bitcoin spot is trivial. and thanks to the nature of bitcoin one can even have the BTC amount sent to an exchange and traded without user intervention. For a merchant this would lower the currency risk substantially.

lets take this thought to its next logical step:  I see a current hole in the bitcoin economy for a brokerage like service to handle and simplify such an exchange. if a service could be built with enough liquidity it would open the market up to many more merchants as well remove a bit of volatility from the exchanges.
MatTheCat
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March 31, 2013, 08:09:15 PM
 #20

Yes...I'm sure all the bitcoin retailers are just loathing the dramatic increase in the price of the bitcoins that they are receiving

Although a rapidly rising commodity brings smiles to all faces who are holding it, it also discourages people holding it for exchanging it for goods, services, and indeed Fiat currency. Now, this is when things are on the way up. On the way down, the volatility will destroy people using Bitcoin for real world economic transactions. Either way, the volatility cannibalises that which underpins the basis of the whole 'value' of Bitcoins.

Seems like there are a lot of smug types around here who think the whole Bitcoin universe's behaviour is running in accordance with their own personal simple world paradigm of how things should work. My word of warning to such people is that they should perhaps consider the possibility that perhaps they are not as smart as they think, and that perhaps they have merely got lucky, inadvertently hitching a ride on a dragons tail wings. True, that dragon may soar and spiral ever higher into the heavens, taking everyone with it along for the ride. But when that dragon dives, it will nose down right into the flames below, revealing to everyone, their false illusions regarding what is driving Bitcoins.

Do people forget what happens when market value far exceeds the underlying assets supporting it? Housing crash 2008 anyone? One thing that I could safely bet my own house on, would be that the market value of Bitcoins, is exceeding the underlying economy which supports it, by an order of several magnitude at the moment. For anyone to 'invest' in Bitcoin now for purposes of speculation, they would be doing so on the premises of 'greater fool theory' (a bigger fool than themselves will come along and pay even more than they did at some point in the future). As for the posts I have seen where people are discussing putting their pension funds into Bitcoin...OYF!  Shocked

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