My Sports Betting Prediction Thread

[tokeweed]

Hey guys!  Just like my Speculation Thread I'm also going to start my own sports betting prediction thread.

I'm doing this to get me more motivated in doing more thorough research in before making bets and avoid making impulsive ones at the same time.  I will share my thought process on why I think the bet is good relative to the line movement, the relevant news involved and other relevant factors involving the bet.

The sports I mostly bet on are Premier League football, Champions League football, the UFC, Formula 1 and sometimes other European football leagues.  

I would also like to point out that I'm not an expert at sports betting but maybe thru this thread and with your help we could all become decent at it.  

Edit:  I'll be posting only the bets that I feel that have value so that means I won't posting bets week in and week out.  There will be times that I'll have no bets open.

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[tokeweed]

Hey guys.  First of all a warning.  I'm making these bets from my POV so if you have any opinions or you think I'm wrong, let's discuss them.  But I suggest reading what I post with an open mind.  Thanks.

This week I have only two bets that I'm really comfortable with.  The first one is the Crystal Palace vs West Ham game this Saturday.  I think Crystal Palace has the edge here because they are at home, they have a decent attacking front with Chadli, Townsend, Zaha and Benteke and also West Ham seems to be struggling in defense.  I don't know how much the international break will affect each team but I assume it would not be that much.  So for a little bit of safety and to reduce variance my bet is Crystal Palace to win, 0, -0.5 at 1.88.

My second bet is in the Liverpool vs Man United game.  This is the most exciting game of the week and everyone seems to be expecting LFC to demolish United since LFC is in form and United is still looking for it.  Imho, in this match, Mourinho will be parking the bus.  He's good at this strategy and used it in various games vs good attacking squads.  He did it in big games with Chelsea, Inter Milan and Real Madrid to great effect.  Although I expect United to lose, the scoreline might be 1 - 0.  They will give Liverpool a hard time scoring.  I can already see Blind being positioned at left back again to neutralized Mane.  That would be fun to watch.  So my bet is under 2.5 goals at 2.13
 

[tokeweed]

As predicted, Mourinho was going to park the bus vs Liverpool.  It looks like that Mourinho's methods are sinking in as shown how Man United played.  It was boring and it lacked intensity, but hey it was Liverpool's match to win.  It was a positive outcome for Mourinho imo.

I won my under 2.5 goal bet with LFC vs Man U but I lost my Crystal Palace bet this weekend.  I'll be having no bets for the CL as I can't find any value, although gambling on Man City to win vs Barca at 5.87 is tempting.  City has to win one if the match was played 5 times right?  I'll decide later.

[tokeweed]

Hello sports fans.  I was gonna make a gamble for Man City vs Barca as the City line seems to have value at 6.24 for them to win.  If the line starts to move higher beyond 6.50 then I might have to.  I cannot not make a bet when my club is playing.  

Anyway for now I just bet the under 3 goals at 2.46.  I think it has a bit of value as I could foresee Pep trying to overwhelm Barca in the midfield to cut the supply lines going to Suarez, Neymar and Messi.  City has the quality to press Barca and then pass the ball at the back and start the play from there.  The effect of this is twofold, maintain possession and to take the momentum away from Barca.  So expect for a low scoring game if it happens as expected.

Edit:  I would like to add that Pep has no intention for this to be a low scoring game.  Pep is idealistic and wants to play 'beautiful football'.  But it will be a low scoring one due to the reason stated above.

[tokeweed]

This weekend I'm betting on Man United, draw no bet at 2.55.  I really think Mourinho and his squad will edge out Chelsea in this match.  Their confidence is slightly up from the win vs Febernahce and they have shown to be motivated to chase for points when they played vs Liverpool.  The score line could end up being 0 - 1 for United.  This is a must win for United to remain contenders for the top 4 places.

I know you're thinking "oh hey here's the guy who made a bet of under 3 goals in Barca vs City and was wrong".  Well to my defense it was on its way to be 1 - 0 or maybe even be 1 - 1 up until Bravo's blunder.

Good luck on your bets!  

[tokeweed]

Hello sports fans!  After having a couple of straight losses I have decided to stay away from betting for a week and just watch and enjoy the games.  But now, being a Manchester City fan, I will have to make a bet in their game vs Barca.  I bet for City to win draw no bet at 2.06.

In the first game everything went fine until Bravo made that stupid mistake practically giving Suarez the ball and then committing the handball.  Also Fernandinho slipped causing the first goal by Messi.  I really felt that my under 3 goals bet had value there.  In the match later, City has home field advantage, has learned their lesson from the first game, and Aguero looks like he's back in form.  They possibly could have a small edge vs Barca this time.

[tokeweed]

With United coming in from the Europa League this weekend, hopefully tired and feeling weary for an away game vs Swansea, I think there's some value in betting on Swansea to win, +1 at 1.81.  Mourinho could again be ordering his men to park the bus and try to gain a point.  Both clubs have got their confidence shot so a 0 - 0 draw is the most likely outcome imho.

If United make another disappointing performance at the Europa League later then that's a sign of more disappointments to come vs Swansea.

[tokeweed]

Now I feel really good on my Swansea +1 handicap bet to win vs Man United.  The line made a somewhat big move down to 1.68 for the +1 Swansea handicap.  This was caused by the loss vs Fenerbahce for sure.  I can't help but feel sorry for one of my most hated man in European football, Jose Mourinho.  If United fails to qualify for the CL, some players may be looking at the exit to play for better clubs.

[forzendiablo]

i will subscribe to this, lets see how it goes

[tokeweed]

i will subscribe to this, lets see how it goes

Haha.  I discourage everyone from following my bets.  The point of this thread is to express my thought process and hopefully someone in the forum who is good at sports betting will chime in and critique my analysis.  I would greatly appreciate it more if I was told I was wrong with a constructive explanation why rather than blindly follow the analysis without thought or question.

But thanks for following, it will surely keep me on my toes and it will make me try harder to come to the right decision and analysis.

[vella85]

Now I feel really good on my Swansea +1 handicap bet to win vs Man United.  The line made a somewhat big move down to 1.68 for the +1 Swansea handicap.  This was caused by the loss vs Fenerbahce for sure.  I can't help but feel sorry for one of my most hated man in European football, Jose Mourinho.  If United fails to qualify for the CL, some players may be looking at the exit to play for better clubs.

I think your bet on Swansea +1 is a good bet as not only like you said Man Utd had to travel for their Europa League game but also that Man Utd have been in poor form and let's be honest even though they beat Man City which by the way I also am a big fan of, the team Man City put out was second rate compared to Man Utd's team. I did mention it in the Premier League topic that they would not get much out of that win because they were basically playing kids lol.

[tokeweed]

Now I feel really good on my Swansea +1 handicap bet to win vs Man United.  The line made a somewhat big move down to 1.68 for the +1 Swansea handicap.  This was caused by the loss vs Fenerbahce for sure.  I can't help but feel sorry for one of my most hated man in European football, Jose Mourinho.  If United fails to qualify for the CL, some players may be looking at the exit to play for better clubs.

I think your bet on Swansea +1 is a good bet as not only like you said Man Utd had to travel for their Europa League game but also that Man Utd have been in poor form and let's be honest even though they beat Man City which by the way I also am a big fan of, the team Man City put out was second rate compared to Man Utd's team. I did mention it in the Premier League topic that they would not get much out of that win because they were basically playing kids lol.

Yup.  United was up against City's B team and all the got was one goal? There's something really wrong with United that Mourinho can't fix.

Anyway here's my bet for UFC Fight Night 98.  I back Tony Ferguson to beat Dos Anjos at 2.23.  There's a couple of reasons for this.  First this fight is gonna go back and forth, neck and neck, with no one fighter dominating the fight imho.  Second, the more aggressive fighter will win the fight, and that's clearly Ferguson.

I can see Ferguson blitzing and pressuring Dos Anjos into a submission or even a KO/TKO.  He's gonna be unpredictable and a little reckless which is what will give him the edge in this fight.  And Ferguson can take some shots too as seen in his fight vs Barboza.

[Rubberduckie]

good to see you have your own thread i love what you do around here making sure
all the UFC stuff is up to date.

definitely will follow your ufc stuff

cheers

[vella85]

I really thought we would of won our bet on Swansea +1 against Man Utd but they came out firing just like they did to Leicester City a few weeks ago where they scored early goals in the 1st half and no goals in the 2nd half. The disappointing thing about this weekends games is that Man City drew and are now 2 points behind Liverpool which they destroyed Watford. 

[tokeweed]

I really thought we would of won our bet on Swansea +1 against Man Utd but they came out firing just like they did to Leicester City a few weeks ago where they scored early goals in the 1st half and no goals in the 2nd half. The disappointing thing about this weekends games is that Man City drew and are now 2 points behind Liverpool which they destroyed Watford. 

Yeah, but it's more because of Swansea's fault.  They allowed United to get away with the three points very easily.  They didn't pressure United enough and just didn't play a good game overall that day.

Anyway here's my bet for UFC 205.  Woodley to win at 2.69.  A lot of people are rooting for Thompson and those people keep saying that this fight will be like Rory vs Woodley.  I beg to differ.  Thompson is mostly a kicker and he's not that good with his hands as he is with his feet.  It was the jab that Rory beat Woodley with.

There are also a group of people who think that this fight will also be like Thompson vs Hendricks.  Nope, Woodley is stronger, way faster and way more explosive than Hendricks.  He will close the distance on Thompson easier than expected because the latter doesn't posses a good job like Rory does.

Woodley is underrated.  There value in betting for him.

[vella85]

I really thought we would of won our bet on Swansea +1 against Man Utd but they came out firing just like they did to Leicester City a few weeks ago where they scored early goals in the 1st half and no goals in the 2nd half. The disappointing thing about this weekends games is that Man City drew and are now 2 points behind Liverpool which they destroyed Watford. 

Yeah, but it's more because of Swansea's fault.  They allowed United to get away with the three points very easily.  They didn't pressure United enough and just didn't play a good game overall that day.

Anyway here's my bet for UFC 205.  Woodley to win at 2.69.  A lot of people are rooting for Thompson and those people keep saying that this fight will be like Rory vs Woodley.  I beg to differ.  Thompson is mostly a kicker and he's not that good with his hands as he is with his feet.  It was the jab that Rory beat Woodley with.

There are also a group of people who think that this fight will also be like Thompson vs Hendricks.  Nope, Woodley is stronger, way faster and way more explosive than Hendricks.  He will close the distance on Thompson easier than expected because the latter doesn't posses a good job like Rory does.

Woodley is underrated.  There value in betting for him.

I agree with Swansea mate and as I said Leicester let Man Utd win easily too early on in the season.

I am with you on Woodley to win and to be honest I don't understand why he is not the favorite? anyway I'm willing to take those odds and bet on him straight out. I was going to put him in my parlay but I don't like to play to many legs with parlays so I just went with a 4 leg parlay and took Woodley straight out. I can see some upsets in tonight's UFC 205.

[tokeweed]

Thankfully the international break is over and we're back to club football.  Before declaring my bet, I'd have to say that I was really disappointed that my bet on Woodley was a draw and my wager was returned.  I was watching the fight in a bar with a friend and have already cheered for the victory.  I was about to say I was paying for the drinks, only for Bruce Buffer to return and say there was a mistake.  

Anyway for this weekend my bet is for Watford to win, +0 at 2.03 vs Leicester City.  Imho Watford is more in form if you compare it with LCFC, the game is at Watford's home and this is important especially when the players are coming home tired from international duty.

[tokeweed]

It's CL week again but I usually don't bet on them as I don't really know what's going on with the other domestic leagues and tend to stick with the EPL.  But this week I found a bet thanks to a newbie for putting it in my attention by posting about it in the CL/Europa League thread.

My bet for this week's matches is Monaco to win +0 at 1.83 vs Tottenham.  The Spurs have a good squad but they haven't been playing as well as expected lately, they are also playing Monaco away so that's another minus for them in this match.  With those odds at +0, it's a bet I'm willing to make.

Yes I know they won vs Westham last weekend, but I'm still not convinced about their form if it's getting better or not.  Maybe it is, but we'll see...

[Denker]

It's CL week again but I usually don't bet on them as I don't really know what's going on with the other domestic leagues and tend to stick with the EPL.  But this week I found a bet thanks to a newbie for putting it in my attention by posting about it in the CL/Europa League thread.

My bet for this week's matches is Monaco to win +0 at 1.83 vs Tottenham.  The Spurs have a good squad but they haven't been playing as well as expected lately, they are also playing Monaco away so that's another minus for them in this match.  With those odds at +0, it's a bet I'm willing to make.

Yes I know they won vs Westham last weekend, but I'm still not convinced about their form if it's getting better or not.  Maybe it is, but we'll see...

Hmm that could indeed be a nice pick.
The odds are great and Monaco is in good performance at the moment.
Definitely worth a try I think.I will give it a shot!Thanks man!
Will follow and check your thread regularly by the way.Good luck!

[bitcoinmaster44]

Pooor