My Speculation Thread (Charts and Analysis Included ;))

[tokeweed]

Hi guys!  Here is where I will post my thoughts and speculations on each altcoin that I would consider profitable to go long or go short.

Why am I doing this?  Simple, to motivate me to do more research on the movement of altcoins coupled with (maybe) the corresponding news that comes with it on a daily basis. 

I would appreciate it for others to participate with their matching analysis and their questions.  I would also like to warn you that I'm not an expert trader and all I post here is from the point of view of a fellow ordinary member of this forum.

Thanks!

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[tokeweed]

Possible buy signal for ETH/BTC



A little over a month of sideways action, ETH interest seems to start picking up again.  Now I have no idea how successful Devcon2 is but we could judge it by the number of attendees and then compare that to Devcon1.  If the number of attendees is clearly way more than last year then Devcon2 would be considered a success.  So if someone knows the numbers, feel free to post.

In my opinion it's good entry is at .0220 - .0225 and then set your stoploss at .020 - .0205.  I'd get in now while the volatility is still low and avoid any big swings in price.

FYI, I tried to short this around a couple of weeks ago but I covered my short as it looked like a bad idea.

[tokeweed]

To Buy or Not to Buy



I have recently noticed the Waves mini pump and I'm starting to question if this is just the start of something more or is the pump over...?

What made me interested to speculate and think about maybe trading it is because the pump went and broke its monthly high.  That's usually a sign of a break out and I usually trade break outs.  The problem is it fell a little bit bigger than expected and that usually gives out the sign that it's a fake out.  Note:  It usually gives out a sign that it's just a fake out, but I've seen other coins trend really high even if they looked like fake outs at first.

Please post your thoughts and reactions.

[vokain]

Please post your thoughts and reactions.

looks like a joint

[Gahs]

An increase in price is a breakout if the price rises and stays high for at least a month. But a trader can't wait that long before joining, so it's best to get in and watch carefully when to get out (if need be).

[tokeweed]

DASH/BTC:  Really Time to Go Short?

Dash is showing signs of a drop incoming.  Obviously the weakening of the price movement is a big sign but the real sign for me is coupled with a fading volume.  Notice the volume from the date of the peak of the uptrend to the date today.  It usually means the whales and pumpers are now out and did that during the peak and the days that came after it.  Be also careful of bull traps as these tend to happen when a cryptocurrency is falling.  Remember the saying 'it cannot go up all the way in a straight line'?  The reverse is also true.

[tokeweed]

XMR/BTC:  Is the Current Trend Over?



Well it looks like the current uptrend might be over for now.  Like anything gravity affects it and pulls it down only to be ready for another run up.  It doesn't matter if it's a stock, a commodity or a currency, it just happens.  The bottom line is there will always be trends and there always will be volatility.  The good news is that's where you can make your profit as traders (or aspiring traders).

In XMR's case, it might be a good idea to try and profit at both sides of the trend.  Putting in a small short position to hedge your long position (if you're a super long term, hardcore XMR holder) is a good idea to reduce the volatility of your portfolio in times when it's going down.  Imo, if it can go that fast going up, the same could happen going down.  So hedging might not be such a bad idea.

If you're just a pure trader trying to earn some BTC, then now is a good time to put in a short position imo.  But as always, be careful and don't listen to any trading advice given by random guy from the internet.  

[sandiman]

Fading volume means consolidation

In downtrend you don't need big volumes to show their validity ...

Dash has been consolidating (it may still break downwards) and Monero just broke a support on which it bounced 4/5 times.

We've seen better TA

[tokeweed]

Fading volume means consolidation

In downtrend you don't need big volumes to show their validity ...

Or it could also mean that the current trend is over because the driver (or drivers) of the pump has left, leaving a headless horse.

Dash has been consolidating (it may still break downwards) and Monero just broke a support on which it bounced 4/5 times.

We've seen better TA

Yup, I will be the first to admit that.  But to my defense all those lines and indicators shown by some here in the forum don't work most of the time either.  I'd rather go for 'less is more' and avoid getting distracted.

[sandiman]

Fading volume means consolidation

In downtrend you don't need big volumes to show their validity ...

Or it could also mean that the current trend is over because the driver (or drivers) of the pump has left, leaving a headless horse.

Dash has been consolidating (it may still break downwards) and Monero just broke a support on which it bounced 4/5 times.

We've seen better TA

Yup, I will be the first to admit that.  But to my defense all those lines and indicators shown by some here in the forum don't work most of the time either.  I'd rather go for 'less is more' and avoid getting distracted.

Good point made there, at the end it's just playing with probabilities of something happening, that's why it's important to assume as a trader that you are always wrong and keep being agnostic.

Best of luck with your trades.

[shanem]

TA does not really work on small markets like the altcoin market. I have tried many times using TA in Poloniex but failed many times. The markets are really unpredictable and I always lose money trading coins in short term. Would you mind sharing some of your tips in TA?

[sandiman]

TA does not really work on small markets like the altcoin market. I have tried many times using TA in Poloniex but failed many times. The markets are really unpredictable and I always lose money trading coins in short term. Would you mind sharing some of your tips in TA?

That's absolutly not true. Thanks to TA you can make money with the shittest coin on poloniex 

[tokeweed]

TA does not really work on small markets like the altcoin market. I have tried many times using TA in Poloniex but failed many times. The markets are really unpredictable and I always lose money trading coins in short term. Would you mind sharing some of your tips in TA?

That's absolutly not true. Thanks to TA you can make money with the shittest coin on poloniex 

Imho, it all comes down to style and what works for you.  If day trading doesn't work for you, why not try a longer term approach like swing trading.  But whatever you do, never ever buy and hold.  That is just plain laziness and blindly being hopeful and wishful that your favorite coin will rise huge.  It's also the fast road to bagholder's land.

[tokeweed]

FCT/BTC:  The Same Pattern Over and Over



I have posted a couple of charts going through the same pattern, namely XMR/BTC and DASH/BTC.  Although the volatility of the three differ the pattern and the behavior are almost identical.  You also have to keep in mind that these three cryptocurrencies were the part of ones that trended up nicely for a couple or more months.

So what does this mean?  Will see more of these in the coming months?  Are we entering another phase of bearish outlook?  Is to short the way to make profit at the moment?  You decide.

[Shiroslullaby]

Nice thread.
As someone who is new to trading its really helpful to have someone post this info and some explanation as to their thought process.
I appreciate your work and will check back later. GL 2 every 1 

[qwizzie]

TA does not really work on small markets like the altcoin market. I have tried many times using TA in Poloniex but failed many times. The markets are really unpredictable and I always lose money trading coins in short term. Would you mind sharing some of your tips in TA?

That's absolutly not true. Thanks to TA you can make money with the shittest coin on poloniex  

Imho, it all comes down to style and what works for you.  If day trading doesn't work for you, why not try a longer term approach like swing trading.  But whatever you do, never ever buy and hold.  That is just plain laziness and blindly being hopeful and wishful that your favorite coin will rise huge.  It's also the fast road to bagholder's land.

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

[sandiman]

TA does not really work on small markets like the altcoin market. I have tried many times using TA in Poloniex but failed many times. The markets are really unpredictable and I always lose money trading coins in short term. Would you mind sharing some of your tips in TA?

That's absolutly not true. Thanks to TA you can make money with the shittest coin on poloniex  

Imho, it all comes down to style and what works for you.  If day trading doesn't work for you, why not try a longer term approach like swing trading.  But whatever you do, never ever buy and hold.  That is just plain laziness and blindly being hopeful and wishful that your favorite coin will rise huge.  It's also the fast road to bagholder's land.

unless of course you can actually gain interest on your holdings .. say 9.9% annual ?

https://dash-news.de/dashtv/#value=1000

which is why Dash currently has the second largest full nodes network (you get rewards for running a full node).

http://178.254.23.111/~pub/masternode_count.png

In the end i think some cryptocurrencies are more suited to hold longterm and some cryptocurrencies are
more suited for daytrading.

Bs; basic finance there.

if you want to calculate your return with such interest you do:

(P1-P0+D1)/P0

P1: price today
P0=Price as which you bought
D1:Dividends (here interest) you received

If you bought the top, sfyl but 8% might not be enought short term.

[olcaytu2005]

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

[tokeweed]

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

I know I might regret this but I'm staying away from XRP after having two small losses when I traded it in the past couple of months.  It's too swingy for my taste and I would wait for it to settle before going back in, if I get back that is.

[sandiman]

Hey tokeweed, nice thread. Ive also shorted factom and xmr at a good price because it also looked like the market makers are out and bull traps. What do you think about ripple? Volume is fading again and considering the huge dumps I happened to think pumpers already sold. Please share your ideas. Again, nice thread, keep it up. Thanks.

I know I might regret this but I'm staying away from XRP after having two small losses when I traded it in the past couple of months.  It's too swingy for my taste and I would wait for it to settle before going back in, if I get back that is.

XRP is probably one of the best looking TA chart in Polo :



We broke an important resistance in mid september but could not hold above 1450 ish, now the most important resistance.

the old resistance at 1100 ish became support, and we consolidate here in a trading range after the break out. Once we got fuel back, market tried to break again 1450 ish but could not hold above it. We may be forming a trading range between the old resistance which became support and 1450 ish.

Ps: notice the sign of accumulation since june that are very bullish (nonetheless, one could argue last pump attempt saw a bit of distribution, which could go with the hypothesis that we could be forming a new trading range).