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Author Topic: So when's the crash?  (Read 10496 times)
BTC Books
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April 03, 2013, 07:16:27 AM
 #21

Gox is lagging over 150 seconds...

Dankedan: price seems low, time to sell I think...
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April 04, 2013, 03:13:49 AM
 #22

The crash is from $2k to $1.95k Smiley
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April 04, 2013, 09:29:10 AM
 #23

So when's the crash?
If there was anyone who could tell you, they'd be a millionaire wizard.

All we can do is watch, and plan for both the unknown hour when it shall arrive, and the possible - though unlikely - future where this is all solid and the crash never comes.

SANITY ON MY FORUMS?!?!?

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April 04, 2013, 09:20:15 PM
 #24

So question is, when does the massive cash out happen?

Tonight. If you're in America. Otherwise tomorrow.
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April 04, 2013, 09:33:21 PM
 #25


And for the newbies to have a good experience, we're talking about money here, not My Little Pony.
Bitcoin (as an investment) is a high risk investment, don't invest more than you can afford to lose.


LOL +1
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April 04, 2013, 09:45:39 PM
 #26

So question is, when does the massive cash out happen?

Tonight. If you're in America. Otherwise tomorrow.

Oh? What makes you so sure? I know it hasn't done much today. I say this as a person who would be very happy to buy in lower.
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April 05, 2013, 06:54:32 AM
 #27

So question is, when does the massive cash out happen?

Tonight. If you're in America. Otherwise tomorrow.

Oh? What makes you so sure? I know it hasn't done much today. I say this as a person who would be very happy to buy in lower.

Sure? Not really. But just wait and see.

As to buying in lower, I think you'll have to wait half a year or a little longer. You can try to benefit from volatility, but it is difficult to make money in a falling market in which you cannot easily sell short or buy put options. That is a distortion that makes the bitcoin market slanted upwards. It helps creating bubbles, but makes it difficult to deflate them.
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April 05, 2013, 10:25:15 AM
 #28

that could retire in the click of a button

retire into what?  Huh

https://localbitcoins.com/?ch=80k | BTC: 1LJvmd1iLi199eY7EVKtNQRW3LqZi8ZmmB
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April 05, 2013, 05:19:02 PM
 #29

As to buying in lower, I think you'll have to wait half a year or a little longer. You can try to benefit from volatility, but it is difficult to make money in a falling market in which you cannot easily sell short or buy put options. That is a distortion that makes the bitcoin market slanted upwards. It helps creating bubbles, but makes it difficult to deflate them.
Reminder that Bitfinex has a lending market which currently has very reasonable APRs for BTC shorts (and they integrate with Gox for minimal slippage too).

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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April 05, 2013, 06:30:08 PM
 #30

I would start to worry if the price stopped the rapid growth for now (corrections are normal)

Bitcoin is a very useful protocol (and proved to be working brilliantly so far). In my opinion the speed of growth matches the adoption rate of other significant technological products/advancements.

Some people look at this from a false perspective based on old, completely different experiences. They tend to lobby everywhere that it must be a bubble. As they are quite loud, I must say that they bring down the quality of most of the BTC forums.

In my opinion the price is not as significant as some people here try to describe. It's just expresses how big the BTC economy is relative to other currencies.

"The financial markets generally are unpredictable. So that one has to have different scenarios... The idea that you can actually predict what's going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.
George Soros

2 of my scenarios are:

1.) no fundamental flaw in the protocol = rapid growth, with many corrections.

2.) fundamental flaw found = a real crash to zero

Fear-mongering  is pointless.



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April 06, 2013, 11:09:08 AM
 #31

So question is, when does the massive cash out happen?

Tonight. If you're in America. Otherwise tomorrow.

I forgot to mention that the bitcoin market sometimes goes into a low-volume-wait mode. That can delay everything else by days. We are in that mode right now.

Let me make a more detailed prediction. The price will gently begin to sink. Over a couple of days the downward trend will accelerate until the first bull trap will appear with the price rising again. But it will not rise to the earlier high levels. After the over-eager bulls have jumped onto the bandwagon, the price will turn around once more and slide to even lower levels.

The price will essentially sink for about half a year with a few major intermediate ups and downs, then it will slowly begin to stabilize. I cannot say at which level it will do that, but a very rough guess would be $20. This depends on circumstances in the past that I do not know exactly and also on circumstances in the future, which nobody can know in advance.
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April 06, 2013, 11:17:33 AM
 #32

This rate of price increases isn't healthy anymore.

We have quite a few people sitting on over 50K++ Bitcoins that could retire in the click of a button.

All the positivity and bullishness reminds me of the last crash at $32.


So question is, when does the massive cash out happen? I'm no bear...but I'm not delusional either.

A major correction has to happen...right?



You, amongst others, have it totally backwards.

The 'crash', will come from fiat.

And it's just about to happen .....
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April 06, 2013, 11:49:10 AM
 #33

So question is, when does the massive cash out happen?

Tonight. If you're in America. Otherwise tomorrow.

I forgot to mention that the bitcoin market sometimes goes into a low-volume-wait mode. That can delay everything else by days. We are in that mode right now.

Let me make a more detailed prediction. The price will gently begin to sink. Over a couple of days the downward trend will accelerate until the first bull trap will appear with the price rising again. But it will not rise to the earlier high levels. After the over-eager bulls have jumped onto the bandwagon, the price will turn around once more and slide to even lower levels.

The price will essentially sink for about half a year with a few major intermediate ups and downs, then it will slowly begin to stabilize. I cannot say at which level it will do that, but a very rough guess would be $20. This depends on circumstances in the past that I do not know exactly and also on circumstances in the future, which nobody can know in advance.

There's no way we'll go below 50 again. There's way too many people waiting to buy cheap coins. If we ever get below 100 there will be a mad rush to start buying again.

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April 06, 2013, 11:53:32 AM
 #34

So question is, when does the massive cash out happen?

Tonight. If you're in America. Otherwise tomorrow.

I forgot to mention that the bitcoin market sometimes goes into a low-volume-wait mode. That can delay everything else by days. We are in that mode right now.

Let me make a more detailed prediction. The price will gently begin to sink. Over a couple of days the downward trend will accelerate until the first bull trap will appear with the price rising again. But it will not rise to the earlier high levels. After the over-eager bulls have jumped onto the bandwagon, the price will turn around once more and slide to even lower levels.

The price will essentially sink for about half a year with a few major intermediate ups and downs, then it will slowly begin to stabilize. I cannot say at which level it will do that, but a very rough guess would be $20. This depends on circumstances in the past that I do not know exactly and also on circumstances in the future, which nobody can know in advance.

There's no way we'll go below 50 again. There's way too many people waiting to buy cheap coins. If we ever get below 100 there will be a mad rush to start buying again.

If the crash happens at these levels 50 and below is a certainty. It would have to go up another 400% in order for that to be considered the floor.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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April 06, 2013, 10:48:36 PM
 #35

Quote
So question is, when does the massive cash out happen?

It depends. Are the current buyers mere momentum investors chasing a rising price? Or are they people who understand the merits of BTC and expect that it could ultimately be a similar asset class as gold with a similar valuation (in which case each BTC would have to have a much larger valuation than at present)? If the former, yeah we could have a big crash. If the latter, then buyers are averaging in and willing to wait for the ultimate valuation to be reached. So I'm not really on the side of either naive bulls, nor of the cynical "BTC is a fad" haters. I tend to think more people are not mere momentum chasers because everyone can see the chart with the speculative blow off in 2011 and subsequent crash. I don't think it's a valueless fad, or it never would have bottomed out. It would have been a zero already.

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April 06, 2013, 11:06:37 PM
 #36

Looks like its about to happen. 
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April 06, 2013, 11:59:14 PM
 #37

Looks like its about to happen. 
Look.

I don't necessarily disagree that this isn't sustainable. I don't necessarily disagree that the rally could end at any moment.

But look at the predictions you've made recently. Look at how many times recently that you've said "the end is now", and meant it, and been wrong.

For your own sake, you need to wash your eyes. Figure out why you keep making the same prediction, and why it keeps coming out wrong. Watching you be reduced to this one-note chant of "crash tomorrow" makes me sad. Sad

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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April 07, 2013, 04:16:23 AM
 #38

that could retire in the click of a button

retire into what?  Huh

private island(s)
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April 07, 2013, 08:41:25 AM
 #39

Looks like its about to happen.  

The current movements have little meaning, because there is hardly any volume behind them.

I would say that the market is in one of its bitcoin-typical low-volume-wait mode phases. They seem to happen when the "speculators" have no idea where the price should go. To me they are an indication that the market is not reality-driven. It is phantasy-driven. This may just be a different expression for bubble.

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

My personal guess is that the bubble will burst within days, but I have to admit that it is only a guess and that I cannot preclude that the price will go up to $200 first.
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April 07, 2013, 12:14:06 PM
 #40

Looks like its about to happen. 

Thank You proudhon, I knew when you made this post that we would easily smash through $150 this weekend. You ALWAYS come through for us, you are the best!!!
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