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Author Topic: So when's the crash?  (Read 10495 times)
piramida
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April 07, 2013, 12:25:23 PM
 #41

Yep, confirmed by proudhon, the next big rally leg just started.

Crash is delayed to some time after that.

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Jobe7
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April 07, 2013, 12:31:07 PM
 #42

I invite the OP and others to put your 'AMAGAD CRASHHHHHhh value' here - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169212.0;topicseen

So that when it does reach the xxx amount you put down people can stop whining about a 'crash'

(And one day (soon) realise that the 'crash' is actually on the other side, buh bye fiat).
piramida
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April 07, 2013, 12:53:36 PM
 #43

Why would there be such a value? For what I've seen, bitbears will always believe that we're in a bubble, they did it at 14, at 114, and would do the same at 1014.

In fact, the higher the price grows, the better are the odds of a correction, so louder bears.

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simplydt
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April 07, 2013, 01:33:33 PM
 #44

The crash will come as soon as someone with 50,000 bit coins decides that its time to cash out and then buy it all back when the market starts recovering Tongue Pretty scary.
zarl
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April 07, 2013, 02:07:14 PM
 #45

The crash will come as soon as someone with 50,000 bit coins decides that its time to cash out and then buy it all back when the market starts recovering Tongue Pretty scary.

Thats the 1 scary thing about BTC i fear.
But also pertty much the only negative thing I can think of
Zaih
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April 07, 2013, 02:12:18 PM
 #46

Let's just hope never Cheesy But I wouldn't be surprised if we went down a little this month. It's seeming a little too good to be true, despite all the great supporting facts that this is just a correction :>
Bitcoinpro
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April 07, 2013, 02:14:05 PM
 #47

carsh what carsh  Huh

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Gordonium
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April 07, 2013, 02:20:44 PM
 #48

Many people seem to be really scared that the price will crash when early adopters star to dumb their Bitcoins. But what they don't understand is that soon there won't be any need to cash out. When price is 10k$/BTC you can just buy your mansion or yacht with Bitcoins directly.

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simplydt
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April 07, 2013, 02:34:33 PM
 #49

The crash will come as soon as someone with 50,000 bit coins decides that its time to cash out and then buy it all back when the market starts recovering Tongue Pretty scary.

Thats the 1 scary thing about BTC i fear.
But also pertty much the only negative thing I can think of

I agree, its the only negative I've found so far. Love everything else about it. I'm hoping with more volume it stabilizes and big sell offs are a thing of the past for it, but then again, we'd need to know who the single biggest holder of bitcoins is, as that person is to be feared! Anyone know who holds the biggest amount of bitcoins? The leading bitcoin farmer on BTC Guild?
simplydt
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April 07, 2013, 02:36:17 PM
 #50

Many people seem to be really scared that the price will crash when early adopters star to dumb their Bitcoins. But what they don't understand is that soon there won't be any need to cash out. When price is 10k$/BTC you can just buy your mansion or yacht with Bitcoins directly.

I'm not scared about the early adopters, i'm scared about hacker groups or just wealthy individuals that are currently playing the market. I have no doubts that the bicoin will appreciate in value in the long term, but if you are in it for the short term (3-6 months), then chances are you are gonna lose money. If you've been holding for a while, it's an easy hold right now.
mp420
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April 08, 2013, 12:27:29 PM
 #51

I'm starting to think we'll reach the top this week. Or the next.
wopwop
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April 08, 2013, 12:28:47 PM
 #52

I'm starting to think we'll reach the top this week. Or the next.
or never
alexh
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April 08, 2013, 12:30:30 PM
 #53

I'd like to know if there is really someone who would possibly able to know when the market crashes.

Grouver (BtcBalance)
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April 08, 2013, 12:36:57 PM
 #54

I'm starting to think we'll reach the top this week. Or the next.
Thats what they said a couple of weeks ago.

hgmichna
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April 08, 2013, 05:48:14 PM
 #55

I'd like to know if there is really someone who would possibly able to know when the market crashes.

I have pondered this until my brain almost exploded. My best result is that a rough guess is possible, but it is fundamentally impossible to predict with any precision when or at what price a bubble bursts. This is similar to volcano eruptions. Sometimes you get some advance warnings, but a precise prediction is still impossible.

Why is this so? Because a single big seller can burst the bubble by selling a large amount and perhaps another large amount just when the price attempts to recover. If there is no big sale, the bubble can inflate higher and higher.

A second effect is that buyers simply run out of money. If you look at the bitcoin price curve of the last few months, you see that we have super-exponential growth, which is impossible to sustain for long. Even exponential growth quickly becomes unsustainable.

And when you look at historic price bubbles, one conspicuous observation is that the peak is always pointed. You never see a rounded head or a "permanently high plateau". It does not necessarily have to be pointed when you look at it through a microscope, but for any normal observer a price bubble always has a pointed peak.

This seems to indicate to me that the bubble also bursts on its own when the accelerating price increase cannot be sustained any longer.

I believe that there are a few simple psychological phenomena at work in these bubbles. You know how the run-up feels—you could observe that here all the time. After the burst you get the effect that many late buyers panic and sell at a loss, relatively quickly driving down the price.

By the way, let me try to explain the stupidity of a price bubble in a different way. From the dollar point of view, bitcoin trading is a zero sum game—no dollars are created or destroyed. They only change hands. This means that necessarily there will be winners and losers. But against all rational sense almost everybody believes to be a winner. That is like asking people whether they believe to be above average car drivers; some 80% answer that they believe exactly that.
mp420
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April 08, 2013, 06:07:57 PM
 #56

I'm starting to think we'll reach the top this week. Or the next.
Thats what they said a couple of weeks ago.

I admit I'm basing this on little more than gut feeling. But the Sunday hike did feel like a start of the last leg in the rally. It happened in anticipation of new money coming to exchanges on Tuesday. Bubbles tend to accelerate just before they burst, for obvious reasons (people are making the mistake of viewing past performance as a proof of the future).

We'll see in the next few days. Consolidation below $200 would be more bullish than a rally to $300, in my book.
hgmichna
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April 08, 2013, 07:39:55 PM
 #57

… We'll see in the next few days. Consolidation below $200 would be more bullish than a rally to $300, in my book.

You mean a "permanently high plateau" at around $190? Smiley
hgmichna
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April 29, 2013, 03:44:55 PM
 #58

Looks like its about to happen.  
[...]

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

My personal guess is that the bubble will burst within days, but I have to admit that it is only a guess and that I cannot preclude that the price will go up to $200 first.

In retrospect my "personal guess" was pretty good. The bubble did burst within three days. It actually did go up to $200 and beyond even within these few days, but fell back steeply, as expected.

It is good to check one's predictions later to hone the predictive skills, something every successful speculator probably does.
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May 02, 2013, 01:04:15 PM
 #59

Looks like its about to happen.  
[...]

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

My personal guess is that the bubble will burst within days, but I have to admit that it is only a guess and that I cannot preclude that the price will go up to $200 first.

In retrospect my "personal guess" was pretty good. The bubble did burst within three days. It actually did go up to $200 and beyond even within these few days, but fell back steeply, as expected.

It is good to check one's predictions later to hone the predictive skills, something every successful speculator probably does.

currently rates are too much fluctuating
what you suggest personally
as i don't have inner knowledge of btc
so i am not sure to hold btc or sell them?

Right now? Sell.

What we just saw and are still seeing is the second big bitcoin price bubble. It is now in the process of bursting, so we will see the bitcoin price essentially shrink over the next couple of months.
[...]
Cough. Price ~$40.  Tongue

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hgmichna
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May 02, 2013, 02:02:41 PM
 #60

As I wrote:

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.

If all my predictions were always perfectly correct, I would no longer be here. Smiley

But I stick to my earlier prediction that "we will see the bitcoin price essentially shrink over the next couple of months." I also predict that the price will go below $40.

Of course, that latter prediction can turn out to be wrong if something unforeseen happens, but I still consider it very likely that the price will go below $40 at some time later this year or next.

The big question in a price bubble is always when to sell or how long to ride the wave. The longer you hold on, the higher the profit, but the bigger the risk that the bubble bursts before you got out. During a bursting bubble you can usually not trade, because the exchanges stop working, so you can lose a lot.

Being conservative, I tend to sell early, more or less when I recognize that I'm in a bubble. But I'm working on it. Predicting bubbles may be one of the finer arts of speculation. It remains very imprecise though, because a few biggish sales can prick a bubble, and these cannot be predicted.
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