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Author Topic: So when's the crash?  (Read 10493 times)
chufchuf
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May 02, 2013, 03:33:05 PM
 #61

Bitcoin is clearly a better place to have your money than Liberty Reserve and at any given times there are probably billions sitting in LR. All that's needed is time to pass, so clearly Bitcoin is way undervalued.
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hgmichna
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May 02, 2013, 04:01:45 PM
 #62

Bitcoin is clearly a better place to have your money than Liberty Reserve and at any given times there are probably billions sitting in LR. All that's needed is time to pass, so clearly Bitcoin is way undervalued.

If nothing goes wrong with bitcoin, you may well be right in the long run.

But for the speculator the question is a different one: Where is the price going in the short term?

For the next months the answer is generally: down. The price will fluctuate up and down, but overall it will go down, perhaps to $20, perhaps lower.

By the way, the price just went down to $90.
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May 02, 2013, 08:11:09 PM
 #63

Bitcoin is clearly a better place to have your money than Liberty Reserve and at any given times there are probably billions sitting in LR. All that's needed is time to pass, so clearly Bitcoin is way undervalued.

If nothing goes wrong with bitcoin, you may well be right in the long run.

But for the speculator the question is a different one: Where is the price going in the short term?

For the next months the answer is generally: down. The price will fluctuate up and down, but overall it will go down, perhaps to $20, perhaps lower.

By the way, the price just went down to $90.

Someone's trying to take Proudhons place.

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May 02, 2013, 08:17:51 PM
 #64

Fair value for BTC is going to settle at $100. That is that.
phelix
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May 02, 2013, 08:22:28 PM
 #65

As I wrote:

Unfortunately, price bubbles are by their nature unpredictable. You can safely make a general prediction that the bubble will burst, but it is difficult to predict exactly when and at which price it will happen.
Yup. Ironic how easy it always looks by hindsight.

Quote
But I stick to my earlier prediction that "we will see the bitcoin price essentially shrink over the next couple of months." I also predict that the price will go below $40.

Of course, that latter prediction can turn out to be wrong if something unforeseen happens, but I still consider it very likely that the price will go below $40 at some time later this year or next.
Below $40 for a longer time feels quite unlikely. There are so many dollars lurking to get back in.

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The big question in a price bubble is always when to sell or how long to ride the wave. The longer you hold on, the higher the profit, but the bigger the risk that the bubble bursts before you got out. During a bursting bubble you can usually not trade, because the exchanges stop working, so you can lose a lot.

Being conservative, I tend to sell early, more or less when I recognize that I'm in a bubble. But I'm working on it. Predicting bubbles may be one of the finer arts of speculation. It remains very imprecise though, because a few biggish sales can prick a bubble, and these cannot be predicted.
I tend to not be able to sell in the bubble but then panic sell at the low point afterwards  Roll Eyes

For the next months the answer is generally: down. The price will fluctuate up and down, but overall it will go down, perhaps to $20, perhaps lower.
Why are you so sure of it going down? Media attention peaked but now a lot of whales know about Bitcoin. The whales take their time or just wait for an opportunity to enter.

There was a slow dwindle in 2011 but that does not mean we will have another one in 2013.

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nobbynobbynoob
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May 02, 2013, 08:26:04 PM
 #66

Someone's trying to take Proudhons place.

Not fit to lick the great P's boots. Grin

Seriously, though, all we're seeing right now thus far seems to be a little holiday selloff. Switch off your bitcoinity ticker and move along, folks. Perhaps shovel whatever BTC you have straight into cold storage before you scratch the itch of temptation to gamble with them (gambling includes daytrading). Smiley

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anu
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May 02, 2013, 08:28:46 PM
 #67


If all my predictions were always perfectly correct, I would no longer be here. Smiley

But I stick to my earlier prediction that "we will see the bitcoin price essentially shrink over the next couple of months." I also predict that the price will go below $40.

Of course, that latter prediction can turn out to be wrong if something unforeseen happens,

Thats the thing - the likelyhood that something unforseen happens is quite big these days. Slovenia? Malta? Luxemburg? Or the Argentinians discover that Bitcoin solves their problem?



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herzmeister
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May 02, 2013, 09:43:14 PM
 #68

Luxembourg? lolwut? they're surely not part of the Bitcoin Zone?   Huh


http://www.fet.at/~mayly/trebuchet/?id=8

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hgmichna
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May 03, 2013, 12:58:14 PM
 #69

Why are you so sure of it going down? Media attention peaked but now a lot of whales know about Bitcoin. The whales take their time or just wait for an opportunity to enter.

Because there is still nothing behind bitcoin, except a few trading outfits. I don't see any fundamentals yet. Ask wordpress.com, namecheap.com and others how many bitcoins they have received. I guess very few. People are not using bitcoins yet. They are almost exclusively bought by people who want to get rich quick.

The "whales" are just more speculators. Currently the speculators are going out, not coming in. The bad ones, to be precise, because the good ones have been out for a while already. In other words, the crazy speculators are now giving up, after losing their shirts, and sell their bitcoins to the even crazier ones, eager to lose their shirts as well. This will not stop before at least a couple of months have passed.

It seems to take time for everyone to understand what a good speculator knew all along—that after a bursting bubble the price will not consistently rise again before it hits rock bottom, which can take anything between 5 months and 2 years in the bitcoin market.

The interesting question is: Where is rock bottom? My guess is $20, but I would not be surprised if I saw a single digit price.

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.
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May 03, 2013, 01:01:53 PM
 #70

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble.
That makes a whole lot of sense. I will have to think about the ramifications.

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.
The real problem is, we can never be sure that Bitcoin will have another bubble at all. I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts?
anu
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May 03, 2013, 05:07:35 PM
 #71

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble.
That makes a whole lot of sense. I will have to think about the ramifications.

On the other hand, we can never be sure whether the run-up to the next bubble begins before this one has hit its own bottom. I suspect this is what happened after the 2011 bubble. That could mean a bottom around $30 this time. But these are wild guesses.
The real problem is, we can never be sure that Bitcoin will have another bubble at all. I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts?

Network effects! Remember Windows 3.1? Linux wiped the floor with it because it was technically lightyears ahead? Big players like Paypal are considering Bitcoin. Not LiteCoin, PPCoin, IxCoin, Namecoin or any of the other cheap knockoffs. Even if they have some parameter a tiny little bit more optimized.


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Nekrobios
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May 03, 2013, 05:09:49 PM
 #72

Things like PayPal are currently nothing but maybes. So far, there is only Silk Road and SatoshiDice.

Remember MySpace?
hgmichna
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May 03, 2013, 05:29:48 PM
 #73

Big players like Paypal are considering Bitcoin.

LOL. You think that the PayPal and Western Union guys want to help bitcoin to bankrupt themselves? That's the stupidest idea I have heard this week.
anu
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May 03, 2013, 06:05:03 PM
 #74

Big players like Paypal are considering Bitcoin.

LOL. You think that the PayPal and Western Union guys want to help bitcoin to bankrupt themselves? That's the stupidest idea I have heard this week.

Not my stupid idea, its David Marcus' stupid idea. You my find this amusing:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/paypal-sees-20-billion-in-mobile-transactions-WlokACTBRterdjHAJGNB6w.html


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hgmichna
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May 04, 2013, 07:59:32 AM
 #75

Big players like Paypal are considering Bitcoin.

LOL. You think that the PayPal and Western Union guys want to help bitcoin to bankrupt themselves? That's the stupidest idea I have heard this week.

Not my stupid idea, its David Marcus' stupid idea. You my find this amusing:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/paypal-sees-20-billion-in-mobile-transactions-WlokACTBRterdjHAJGNB6w.html

He has fooled you, and that was his intention. He is stonewalling and spreading bits of false information to confuse the audience and buy himself time.

Do you really believe that PayPal will support bitcoin? Switch on your brain and think again.
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May 04, 2013, 08:11:34 AM
 #76

He has fooled you

I think he has better things to do than fooling me or you. As you may have noted, he was mentioning specifics. He could have stopped at a general statement about Bitcoin.

Do you really believe that PayPal will support bitcoin? Switch on your brain and think again.

For funding PP accounts? Why not? Just because here, a lot of ppl are anti-PP, it does not follow that PP or a lot of other financial institutions are anti-Bitcoin.


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hgmichna
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May 04, 2013, 08:46:06 AM
 #77

I have opened a new discussion about PayPal, because we are straying from the original topic here.
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May 04, 2013, 09:52:47 AM
 #78

Fair value for BTC is going to settle at $100. That is that.

I made that prediction in 2010.  Everyone thought I was Insanely bullish.

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jasonslow
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May 06, 2013, 03:20:25 AM
 #79

We don't know what happen in the future. But bitcoins will increase its price as it gets additional popularity.
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May 06, 2013, 06:46:23 AM
 #80

The real problem is, we can never be sure that Bitcoin will have another bubble at all.

When enough new, inexperienced speculators come into the market, we will see another bubble.

I don't know whether it can survive the bear market with its position as Digital Cash #1 with things like altcoin competition (Litecoin is coming to MtGox, and Ripple might be a true future competitor) and problems like the block size limit. Thoughts?

That may be impossible to predict. Usually the first comer garners a natural monopoly. That is why there is only one big eBay, only one big PayPal, only one big Facebook, only one big Google. Of course these don't stay natural monopolies forever, but usually they can cling to their position for many years.

That said, if a new digital currency comes along that has at least one clear and important advantage over bitcoin, then things may change.
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