I usually use the "Bitcoin Calculator" on bitcoinwisdom.com, and start filling in numbers for prices and stuff. You can get accurate values for cost, and electricity usage, and running costs. The other questions you need to ask yourself:
1) Can I stand the heat generated? It's like a 1500W heater running full blast 24 hours per day. I have no idea where you live.
2) Can you stand the noise? Think hair-dryer running 24 hours per day.
3) Will the environment remain under 90F where it's running?
The biggest unknown, besides possible breakdown, is the difficulty change that will happen over the next year. Assuming a value of 0 (i.e. No difficulty change) would be foolhardy. I can assure you that difficulty will increase over the next year. I would not be surprised if it's 50% higher (or more) 12 months from now.
I would encourage you to read the S9 thread in the "Hardware" sub-forum. Yes, it's long, and there is some useless stuff in there. It is also a way better view than a smattering of YouTube videos (IMHO).
Oops, I overlooked your comment
1) I live in Belgium so extra heat isn't a problem
In the summer I will have to direct the heat out of a window.
2) Noise isn't a problem, I ran a Dell 2950 server (aka extreme-turbo-jet) in that same room and that wasn't a problem.
3) Yup, it is usually between 63*F (17*C) and 70*F (12*C). In the summer max 80*F (27*C)
I've read quite a large part of the S9 thread and it gave me mixed feelings about guys being in love with it and other hating it..