OK, THIS IS FUCKING INSANE

[V4Vendettas]

I sold all but 1 bitcoin @ £81 and having mined everyone of those coins I can't help but feel a little sad.  

Now hoping for a mini crash to get back on the train.
Its more fun on the train.

[Timbert33]

I've already made my call $250/BTC by April 30, 2013.

Might be conservative.

Dude I'm a fucking atheist but nobody makes money this fast and this easy without going to some sort of hell....

Bitcoin is totally different of anything.. It's so new, unusual, revolutionary.. BTC is just about to give birth.. it will have a bigger impact on society than the internet itself !

Lol, wtf does that even mean? Bitcoin couldn't even exist without the internet... so clearly the internet has had / will have a greater impact.

[Timbert33]

If you switch your charts to a logarithmic scale, things look much less dramatic,

http://s21.postimg.org/3kaf7grvb/btc_log.jpg
free image hosting

So? Of course it makes things look much less dramatic. That's the whole point of the logarithmic system and a log scale... Don't understand people's obsession with the log scale graph in this forum. It changes nothing...

[Melbustus]

If you switch your charts to a logarithmic scale, things look much less dramatic,


free image hosting

So? Of course it makes things look much less dramatic. That's the whole point of the logarithmic system and a log scale... Don't understand people's obsession with the log scale graph in this forum. It changes nothing...

Let's see it in log base-64 !

[Timbert33]

If you switch your charts to a logarithmic scale, things look much less dramatic,

http://s21.postimg.org/3kaf7grvb/btc_log.jpg
free image hosting

So? Of course it makes things look much less dramatic. That's the whole point of the logarithmic system and a log scale... Don't understand people's obsession with the log scale graph in this forum. It changes nothing...

Let's see it in log base-64 !

Yeah, that's the only meaningful logarithmic graphing scale... Everyone knows that.

[piramida]

So? Of course it makes things look much less dramatic. That's the whole point of the logarithmic system and a log scale... Don't understand people's obsession with the log scale graph in this forum. It changes nothing...

It does change much - it shows the relative speed of growth, not absolute values which are pretty meaningless, given that bitcoin was trading for 1 cent not long ago.

[DarkBet]

I've already made my call $250/BTC by April 30, 2013.

Might be conservative.

Dude I'm a fucking atheist but nobody makes money this fast and this easy without going to some sort of hell....

hehe,

Well, same was said a while ago when the internet took of

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

If you switch your charts to a logarithmic scale, things look much less dramatic,

So? Of course it makes things look much less dramatic. That's the whole point of the logarithmic system and a log scale... Don't understand people's obsession with the log scale graph in this forum. It changes nothing...

If you don't understand you probably haven't considered the difference between relative and absolute growth. Relative growth is what matters from an investment perspective. Regular charts distort the changes by magnifying the recent relative changes and shrinking older relative changes. They therefore systematically distort investment decisions.

Moreover, Bitcoin is experiencing exponential growth in almost every measurable indicator, including of course price. Log charts are simply far more suited to analysis of exponential growth phenomena; otherwse you have to try to eyeball a exponential curve as if it were superimposed the price movements to check whether it is moving in line with the exponent, which is rather difficult and error-prone. It's way easier to look at a log chart and see whether the price is moving in a straight line or not (the BTC price was, but in the past three weeks it has started lilting upward).

[Timbert33]

If you switch your charts to a logarithmic scale, things look much less dramatic,

So? Of course it makes things look much less dramatic. That's the whole point of the logarithmic system and a log scale... Don't understand people's obsession with the log scale graph in this forum. It changes nothing...

If you don't understand you probably haven't considered the difference between relative and absolute growth. Relative growth is what matters from an investment perspective. Regular charts distort the changes by magnifying the recent relative changes and shrinking older relative changes. They therefore systematically distort investment decisions.

Moreover, Bitcoin is experiencing exponential growth in almost every measurable indicator, including of course price. Log charts are simply far more suited to analysis of exponential growth phenomena; otherwse you have to try to eyeball a exponential curve as if it were superimposed the price movements to check whether it is moving in line with the exponent, which is rather difficult and error-prone. It's way easier to look at a log chart and see whether the price is moving in a straight line or not (the BTC price was, but in the past three weeks it has started lilting upward).

Here's the thing, though. While there is value to using log charts in some cases to analyze growth, it's obviously not what is happening on this forum in general. What IS happening on this forum is that people are using log charts to reassure themselves that the current growth trend is not out of control and is completely fine and normal.

I bet in June 2011 people were on here posting this log chart:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2009-02-04&e=2011-06-06&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Instead of this chart:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2009-02-04&e=2011-06-06&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

to reassure themselves that it wasn't a bubble as well, which it quite apparently was. So, I just don't want people to use it to make themselves feel safe for no reason.

I've even heard people on here say that it wasn't a bubble in June 2011 because bitcoin has EVENTUALLY come back to those prices. That's clearly a ridiculous statement, ESPECIALLY since it might just be back above those prices because we're in ANOTHER BUBBLE. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, but either way June 2011 was a bubble, and I don't want people to just blindly put a lot of money into btc at this point when it's a reasonably high risk investment.

I'm still invested myself, but people on this forum definitely need reality checks. Bitcoin is very unlikely to turn hundreds of thousands of people into millionaires in 6 months, which everyone seems to think will happen.

[Kazu]

to reassure themselves that it wasn't a bubble as well, which it quite apparently was. So, I just don't want people to use it to make themselves feel safe for no reason.

And now its many times higher than that price. Maybe, just maybe, that wasn't a bubble in Bitcoin price, but the time between then and now was just a bubble in USD valuation. 

[Timbert33]

to reassure themselves that it wasn't a bubble as well, which it quite apparently was. So, I just don't want people to use it to make themselves feel safe for no reason.

And now its many times higher than that price. Maybe, just maybe, that wasn't a bubble in Bitcoin price, but the time between then and now was just a bubble in USD valuation.  

Not sure if troll. Bitcoin dropped to like 8% of it's value after that crash... Obviously USD valuation hadn't changed that significantly in that time period. Also the price of bitcoin dropped by a gigantic percentage compared to every currency as well as gold and silver at that time. Clearly a crash.

I'm still btc bull at this point, but that was a bubble, and this current rise may be another one (but might not be).

[Richy_T]

Let's see it in log base-64 !

It would look exactly the same but with different numbers down the side. That's kind-of the point.

[Richy_T]

Not a straight line so exceeding exponential growth. It'd be interesting to see what function would fit that. Geometric growth?

[Kazu]

exceeding exponential growth

Best thing ever.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Not a straight line so exceeding exponential growth. It'd be interesting to see what function would fit that. Geometric growth?

log scale is starting to look exponential, so I am thinking y = (a^b)^x

[Timbert33]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2009-02-04&e=2011-06-06&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Not a straight line so exceeding exponential growth. It'd be interesting to see what function would fit that. Geometric growth?

This is not a straight line either (1 year graph of btc/usd on a log scale):

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Nor is this (6 month graph of btc/usd on a log scale):

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=180&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Regardless, the point is that looking at something on a different graph doesn't make it a safer investment.

[Richy_T]

True. Though that last graph could be considered as two fairly reasonably constant growth rates followed by some craziness over the last couple of weeks. Certainly it seems that the recent accelerated growth may be unhealthy.

Then again, a government did just reach into peoples savings accounts and helped themselves so....

[muyuu]

We're going to need slope fields to plot that

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slope_field

Looking like a doubly exponential function, but not on a big exponent. Something like 1.6^1.2^x.

[notme]

We're going to need slope fields to plot that

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slope_field

Looking like a doubly exponential function, but not on a big exponent. Something like 1.6^1.2^x.

It is just an acceleration of the growth rate... Instead of one new user per 1000 existing we are getting three, for example (made up numbers).

This is an increase of a in

e^(a*t)

Technically your formulation is equivalent since i^j^k = i^(j*k).

[muyuu]

We're going to need slope fields to plot that

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slope_field

Looking like a doubly exponential function, but not on a big exponent. Something like 1.6^1.2^x.

It is just an acceleration of the growth rate... Instead of one new user per 1000 existing we are getting three, for example (made up numbers).

This is an increase of a in

e^(a*t)

Technically your formulation is equivalent since i^j^k = i^(j*k).

Yeah well, but if you make it 3 variables, then it either can be 1 and then you have a normal exponential. The point is that it does look correlated to a double exponential on 2 constants.