Bitcoin Volatility [Fill in the Blanks]

[bb113]

To anyone thinking of complaining about the volatility, please fill in the blanks in this image and connect the two dots in whatever way you think would be "ideal for bitcoin". Then explain why you think such a scenario (e.g.,  straight line) is plausible.

[Merralea]

Awe, I thought we were going to play some sort of Mad Libs.

If I were drawing that line, it would actually look more fucked up than the real one-- though, that's more "ideal for me" than for bitcoin.

[kernelpanic]

Before the chart is completed I think we need a definition of what a "Success Scenario" is.

And also a definition of "ideal for bitcoin."

[bb113]

Before the chart is completed I think we need a definition of what a "Success Scenario" is.

And also a definition of "ideal for bitcoin."

That is for each person to define.

[masize]

Before the chart is completed I think we need a definition of what a "Success Scenario" is.

And also a definition of "ideal for bitcoin."

That is for each person to define.

Actually, the Widespread Use is variable as your looking it from an Optimistic point of view. What if Widepread ends as the Genesis?

[bb113]

Before the chart is completed I think we need a definition of what a "Success Scenario" is.

And also a definition of "ideal for bitcoin."

That is for each person to define.

Actually, the Widespread Use is variable as your looking it from an Optimistic point of view. What if Widepread ends as the Genesis?

You are saying the "value" during widespread use would be 0? This doesn't make sense to me. If you think even during widespread use the value (in whatever units you want) should be low, then just put 0.01 in that box. Perhaps I should add some more boxes for units.

[Mike Christ]

[bb113]

Your forgot to fill in the boxes  . Also, I have now added boxes for units (eg USD, pizza rolls, etc).

[Mike Christ]

Whoops!  Sorry, they're little boxes, so I didn't think about putting anything in them



New and improved!

[bb113]

Whoops!  Sorry, they're little boxes, so I didn't think about putting anything in them



New and improved!

The only problem I have with it is you seem to be assuming time travel, so the word "soon" is somewhat vague.

[Mike Christ]

The only problem I have with it is you seem to be assuming time travel, so the word "soon" is somewhat vague.

I was gonna write eventually but boy, that was a long word to write, so I settled on soon. 

[bb113]

The only problem I have with it is you seem to be assuming time travel, so the word "soon" is somewhat vague.

I was gonna write eventually but boy, that was a long word to write, so I settled on soon. 

Now with bigger boxes!!

[masize]

Before the chart is completed I think we need a definition of what a "Success Scenario" is.

And also a definition of "ideal for bitcoin."

That is for each person to define.

Actually, the Widespread Use is variable as your looking it from an Optimistic point of view. What if Widepread ends as the Genesis?

You are saying the "value" during widespread use would be 0? This doesn't make sense to me. If you think even during widespread use the value (in whatever units you want) should be low, then just put 0.01 in that box. Perhaps I should add some more boxes for units.

Maybe I misunderstood your chart. What if bitcoin eventually dies. Not that I want that, Im buying Bitcoins daily but the US Government didnt start the war yet.
With your chart you are saying the Widespread Use will end Up.

THIS IS JUST AN EXAMPLE.



What I mean with this is. You say thats wrong complaining ofthe volatility because you are saying that Bitcoin will ALWAYS FINISH with increasing Widespread Use.
But the problem with volatility is that you don't know when you are in the top until the time passed.

What if I have a store and Im selling thing with Bitcoin, just the moment when its at its best usd 160 example. And then starts to go down for weeks. I have to pay my suppliers that dont accept Bitcoin, sell my Bitcoins at low price. But then suddenly starts to grow up again, and I'm buying Bitcoins at the expensive price.
You are gambling when you sell with Bitcoins. Personally I think It going to go up and never stop, but I can be wrong. But I am aware that its risk accepting bitcoins and thats why people complain about volatility.

[bb113]

Yes, this is only for success scenarios. We are not considering eventual failure scenarios here. I did add some space on the top in the new version of the chart for anyone who predicts an overshoot

[sgbett]

oblig xkcd...




...im thinking it will be like primer.

[Mike Christ]

Of course, Bitcoin will inevitably fail when a newer technology takes its spot.  But it'll probably be another crypto-currency.

[justusranvier]

Of course, Bitcoin will inevitably fail when a newer technology takes its spot.  But it'll probably be another crypto-currency.

Right. Just like the Internet failed when we replaced with Internet2.

[masize]

Of course, Bitcoin will inevitably fail when a newer technology takes its spot.  But it'll probably be another crypto-currency.

Right. Just like the Internet failed when we replaced with Internet2.

Its pointless to compare two completely different things. But.
Internet is not only scalable but upgradable.

Bitcoin has it's rules set up from the beggining so it can´t be upgraded to future changes.

[justusranvier]

Bitcoin has it's rules set up from the beggining so it can´t be upgraded to future changes.

Not only is it false that Bitcoin can't be upgraded in the future, it already has been upgraded in the past. On multiple occasions.

[masize]

Bitcoin has it's rules set up from the beggining so it can´t be upgraded to future changes.

Not only is it false that Bitcoin can't be upgraded in the future, it already has been upgraded in the past. On multiple occasions.

Really? show me...