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Author Topic: Precious metals are not useful in a collapse scenario!  (Read 13359 times)
iamnotback (OP)
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October 30, 2016, 08:07:22 AM
 #1

I think they are they are happy if you overpay $2 over spot for the oversupply of silver in the world. There is all the silver you want in 1000oz bars. How much do you need? I'll tell you were you can buy it.

Don't buy 18,000 oz of silver like I did. You'll end up bankrupt like I am.

If your goal is to actually make money, you would be buying before there's a physical shortage in 1000oz bars, not after (be first, be smart, or cheat).  I also hear even the big players are buying 1 oz silver eagles and NOT huge bars.

The problem is that physical silver coin is not ever going to be used as currency ever again, no matter what happens. Period.

1. We are in a digital age and no one is going backwards, no matter what happens. Period.

2. When global collapses ensues such that you think you might be able to use metal coinage, what actually happens is as follows.

  • As Fernando “FerFAL” Aguirre points out, only the currency that can be exchanged external to the crisis area has value. People are not bartering silver dimes, rather if you had German DMarks in Bosnia or USA dollars in Argentina, then these were accepted and liquid. Gold coins were much more difficult to liquidate because there is a funnel of few dealers that can't actually exchange them for the externally liquid currencies of USA dollars.
  • As Dmitry Orlov points out, everyone's priority is on food, security, and transportation. Direct trade of these is more valued than some metal which can't be traded for these needs, because these metals are not liquid.
  • Armstrong has also explained that gold and silver only have a value for as long as the collapse is not total and there is still an external market. During Dark Ages such as in Japan or fall of Rome, the gold and silver become entirely illiquid (is buried in the ground) and only food, guns, fuel, and alcohol+cigarettes become money.

See the link below to the description of the war in Bosnia:

You apparently lack appreciation of the significance of both marginal prices in economics, and also the non-linear effects of chaos.

1. With marginal prices in Economics 101, the price you pay is set by the most expensive producer. It is not a useful model to think of a 3/4 reduction in food production causing causing a 400% increase in prices, because when you take away 3/4 of the lowest cost producers, the new supply is highest cost producers. So as was the case in Bosnia, where the cost of food was driven by the highest cost producers, a tin can of Spam was $30 to $40, i.e. roughly a 1000% increase. You need to visualize this as disruption of economies-of-scale not only in farming, but also in terms of distribution economies-of-scale, security of farming and distribution economies-of-scale.

2. When the population has become dependent on high economies-of-scale in farming, distribution, credit, government, corporations, etc., and that is taken away by mother nature and or widespread war/pestilence (-4.5 F average temperature reduction in cold climates, with great aggregate effects such as flooding, droughts, etc), then the F.U.B.A.R. human effects are quite non-linear as described in that link bigtimespaghetti provided on surviving the war in Bosnia (which I had read long ago when it was first published). This can further exacerbate application of solutions and thus drive prices another 1000% higher.

Adaptation was essential as explained below, but the following adaptation can't be done if you are surrounded by humans who are suddenly thrust into a situation for which they are not prepared because they will hunt you instead of adapting:





Makes sense because the purpose of a currency is standardized, interchangeable units of measure, and bullion bars do not fit the bill.  They're only useful for industrial applications, which is why many places in Europe charge VAT on bars and not coins.  Also easier to avoid counterfeits with coins than bullion bars.

Actually doesn't make sense at all. You want to be buying bullion that can be liquidated if the collapse doesn't go extreme. Otherwise you don't want to be buying precious metals at all.

This is why crypto-currency is going to kick ass.

I would have maybe some 1 oz gold coins for a desperation situation, knowing full well that anyone that takes them in payment is only going to give me 1/10 their "official value" (or original value) in an apocalyptic collapse scenario.

Must better I have dollar bills and even better some crypto-currency, especially some that I am able to use anonymously if needed.

I am not betting on the apocalyptic collapse scenario, because if we go there then what I really need is to be self-sufficient. No amount of monetary currency savings can help me. I would need guns, fellow community, and ability to survive off the land.

Please stop talking nonsense about silver coins as an investment. It is stupidest thing I have ever once thought was true until I woke up from being a dumb ass tinfoil hat.

As for the future, both Hillary and Trump have talked about massive, expensive, public works projects, plus Trump has even talked about defaulting on the debt.  Tons of govt spending that won't be paid for is pretty bullish on anything that's not connected to USD debt markets.  We also reached peak oil in 2004, so extraction of anything from the earth is inherently more expensive after that date.  The markets have just not caught up to the fact yet since markets are manipulated and distorted.

So buy gold bullion.

We also reached peak oil in 2004, so extraction of anything from the earth is inherently more expensive after that date.  The markets have just not caught up to the fact yet since markets are manipulated and distorted.

Peak oil is propaganda lie that Rothschilds has been funding same as the Man-made global warming lie.

It is not true. You'd only need the flow of oil out of the ground of a medium size river, to supply the entire world's support of oil. The USA has risen to the #1 global producer over the past decade due to the discovery of fracking.

Besides we are moving away from carbon-based fuels and generation via nuclear energy, solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal. New technological breakthroughs in these areas plus battery technology will obsolete carbon fuels. Also we are moving towards living in high-density cities with mass transportation instead of one human per vehicle. Our vehicles can also improve efficiency by 100 - 200%. The technological innovation whirlwind is underway.

There is no strong case for silver. It is more volatile than gold, less liquid, and there is no supply crunch problem. The precious metal promoters are fooling you with lies and propaganda.

In the end though, you will always have tyranny without metals circulated as currency in native form.  A "gold backed" currency is useless, they have to be circulated.  Bitcoin does not solve any of those issues because Bitcoin is inherently a technoracy, which is what I told Theymos in the following thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1654457.msg16663846#msg16663846

There is no solution to the inviolable (insoluble) tyranny of the power-law distribution1 and the Iron Law of Political Economics power vacuum.

Sorry just accept the fate of the human race.

That unfortunate fact won't make gold and silver viable again, just because Bitcoin isn't a panacea. There will never be a panacea. Give up.

1 A. Dragulescu and V. Yakovenko. Exponential and power-law probability distributions of wealth and income in the United Kingdom and the United States.
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October 30, 2016, 09:42:59 AM
 #2

You cannot predict the future, so you cannot definitively say that silver coins will never be used as a currency again. It's highly likely they won't, but not impossible. I think plenty of people who collect gold, silver, platinum and other rare metals see beyond the physical item. There are industrial uses for these materials, as you say, which could mean they get melted down for their useful properties in electronics or plating. Like every other market in the world, the price changes on these metals due to supply and demand - that is where investors make money.

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October 30, 2016, 09:43:05 AM
 #3

A large part of the globe does not have any electricity nor will they.
Yet, they still use a currency of some type.

If the digital system is neutered in a disaster something will HAVE to be used.
It will HAVE to be something you can hold in your hand and put in your pocket.

And because this scenario is plausible it means FIAT cash paper money and / or metals will always be needed.
..like they always were before.

You don't throw the baby out with the bath water Wink
In other words just because there is "not as much" as a need for Metals or FIAT ...
does not mean we throw them out and abandon them all together.

Life is about stability + security.. AKA: Back up plans.

FUD first & ask questions later™
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October 30, 2016, 10:06:17 AM
 #4

For me its a simple case of follow the big money.

Governments, central banks and very powerful individuals are all ploughing their money into gold and there is a reason for this.

They are trying to eliminate the 3rd party risk assosciated with Fiat (same applies bitcoin).  With gold no other supporting system is required, you hold it and you own it.  If there was a significant crash in fiat would the general public be looking to exchange one set of virtual digits on a screen for another or would there be a flight to hard assets?

I also think bitcoiners are going to be in for a major shock when central banks are ready to move over to cashless and bitcoin is then seen as a threat.  It will be eliminated through excessive regulation, legal restrictions etc.
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October 30, 2016, 10:10:27 AM
 #5

It seems you don't understand a shit about precious metals.



See how small bitcoin is comparing to gold market? It is like a tiny sand particle on earth. I am not saying bitcoin doesn't have a future but  nothing can destroy precious metals. It is the ultimate safest choice.

Period.

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October 30, 2016, 10:32:15 AM
 #6

It seems you don't understand a shit about precious metals.



See how small bitcoin is comparing to gold market? It is like a tiny sand particle on earth. I am not saying bitcoin doesn't have a future but  nothing can destroy precious metals. It is the ultimate safest choice.

Period.

You are right but only partly right. As we all know the Market Cap depends on the price of Bitcoin and on the price of precious metals. If the price of Bitcoin will go up in the future faster than the prices of precious metals the situation might change a lot.

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markj113
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October 30, 2016, 10:37:37 AM
 #7

You are right but only partly right. As we all know the Market Cap depends on the price of Bitcoin and on the price of precious metals. If the price of Bitcoin will go up in the future faster than the prices of precious metals the situation might change a lot.

Lol

Total gold market cap = $7,617,683,440,065
Total bitcoin market cap =  $11,342,306,883

bitcoin market cap = 0.1489% of gold's

I think we would have to see quite a swing in prices to see "the situation change a lot"   Cheesy Cheesy
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October 30, 2016, 10:51:47 AM
 #8

Here is a very important reason, and a near possibility, why one should keep cash and junk silver coins on hand. Crypto and banking will be useless in a potentially real, more serious scenario like this.

A Massive 'Coronal Hole' on the Sun is Blasting Earth w/ Solar Storms That Could CRIPPLE Pow






Solar winds triggered a giant geomagnetic storm this week, raising fears that they could cripple power supplies.

The charged particles are coming from a coronal hole on the sun that is currently facing Earth.

If Earth's magnetic field was hit by charged particles the effects could also include radar and satellite interference, causing problems phone and internet networks and navigation services.

Power grid operators in the US were put on alert yesterday following concerning space weather forecasts. But the impact could be felt all over the world.

Warnings were issued by the operator of the biggest power grid in the US, PJM Interconnection LLC, as well as by Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which manages high-voltage power lines across North America, reports Bloomberg.

These were the result of US Space Weather Prediction Center raising a 'serious' G3 level storm alert, though the alert was later downgraded to a less severe G2 storm.


Read more at https://www.lewrockwell.com/2016/10/no_author/solar-storm-alert/.


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October 30, 2016, 10:59:19 AM
 #9

Also, above^^^.

The Dangers of Buying Gold



Most of the firms sponsoring the ads promote gold coins at grossly inflated prices. One company openly acknowledges marking up their gold bullion coins thirty percent but sometimes has markups of seventy percent. Another firm has been known to markup its coins one hundred percent.

...

Should the callers be astute enough to ask about the American Eagle gold coins, the world’s best-selling gold coins, or the South African Krugerrands, the world’s best known gold coins, both of which carry very low premiums over the value of their gold content, the telemarketers unload their big guns and start talking about “gold confiscation.”

In 1933, in the midst of the Great Depression, by executive order President Roosevelt made it illegal for Americans to own gold bullion or gold bullion coins. The order stood until December 31, 1974. Telemarketers call Roosevelt’s act a “confiscation,” but in reality it was a “call-in” of U.S. gold coins.


Read more at http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/article/dangers-of-buying-gold/?utm_source=LRC&utm_medium=textad&utm_campaign=advertisedgold.


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Cure your cancer at home. Ivermectin, fenbendazole, methylene blue, and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) are chief among parasite drugs. Find out that all disease is based in parasites or pollution, and what you can easily do about it - https://www.huldaclark.com/.
iamnotback (OP)
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October 30, 2016, 01:36:29 PM
 #10

The IQ here is amazing.  Roll Eyes

Time to spank some braggart tinfoil pointed hat wearing dolts...

For me its a simple case of follow the big money.

Governments, central banks and very powerful individuals are all ploughing their money into gold and there is a reason for this.

And they aren't buying silver dimes. They are buying Comex bars, bullion, ETFs, and otherwise investing based on liquidity.

Any BS from gold propagandists to the contrary is not factual.

It seems you don't understand a shit about precious metals.

See how small bitcoin is comparing to gold market? It is like a tiny sand particle on earth.

The issue is whether it will be liquid during a collapse, which has nothing to do with the relative supply that is stored in some few numbers of vaults mostly controlled by super wealthy and governments.

Comparing the liquidity of gold to Bitcoin now for an individual with a wireless computer connection in most locations of the world to liquidity of physical precious metal coin in those locations, makes gold look pathetic.

You son, don't understand precious metals. Get off my lawn with your pathetic attempts to insult yourself.

Total gold market cap = $7,617,683,440,065
Total bitcoin market cap =  $11,342,306,883

bitcoin market cap = 0.1489% of gold's

I think we would have to see quite a swing in prices to see "the situation change a lot"   Cheesy Cheesy

Saplings grow very rapidly to oak trees, but oak trees don't grow to the moon. Are you investing for maximum or minimum gain. Duh.  Roll Eyes






Sunspot magnetic field driven activity is headed for minimization from 2020s through 2040s:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/nature/sun-drop-in-energy-output-is-stronger-than-expected/

Here is the RT video with English CC subtitles (click the CC button):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5M9cklpcJNs

Basically the cooling with accelerate in 2020s, and then get worse in 2030s, then start to warm in 2040s.
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October 30, 2016, 02:31:15 PM
Last edit: October 30, 2016, 02:52:36 PM by markj113
 #11

@ iamnotback,

I made enough off gold to pay off my mortgage in full by age 39 and buy myself a nice porsche 911.

How much have you made off Bitcoin as you consider yourself such an investment guru.

Bitcoin has in no way proven itself in crash scenario take Venezuela as a good example.  Bitcoin volume hit $117k a week, pocket change.

Also stating gold is not liquid is bollocks, you can pretty much sell as much gold as you want anywhere in the world.  A few months back I walked into a bullion dealer and sold about $75k worth on the spot with no drama whatsoever.



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October 30, 2016, 02:57:20 PM
 #12

So you think you know precious metals better than Russia and China?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-28/russias-most-potent-weapon-rapidly-hoarding-gold-global-currency-war-upon-us

Russia and China saw these days coming long before anyone and started hoarding gold. When the shit hits the fan, gold will make a huge jump.

Liquidity? What are you taking about? We are talking about gold here, the most ancient currency of all times. Don't mix gold with bunch of anonymous internet software.

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October 30, 2016, 05:25:46 PM
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Also stating gold is not liquid is bollocks

You have a significant reading comprehension deficiency. This is 3rd time I've told you that the scenario entertained is "in a collapse". We aren't talking about being able to drive over to your coin dealer (who btw in a collapse scenario has already been killed and all his inventory stolen). Your Porsche 911 has been destroyed in this scenario. I suppose you didn't even read the linked scenario:


Btw, there are no coin dealers in Mindanao nor in rural areas of most of the world.

Try to sell some precious metal where I am, and you'll be missing an arm or finger or eyeball not too long after that.

Liquidity? What are you taking about? We are talking about gold here, the most ancient currency of all times. Don't mix gold with bunch of anonymous internet software.

GAFC.
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October 30, 2016, 05:36:14 PM
 #14

There have been numerous crashes all of the world since day 1.  

Bitcoin never existed in these times and people survived by trading hard assests and skills.

Same applies today.

If the world went to shit I personally would be alot happier with a few half and full sovereigns over a few bitcoin any day of the week.

There is also a reason why UK fighter pilots are issued with gold sovereigns as part of their survival kit and not a paper wallet.
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October 30, 2016, 05:43:03 PM
 #15

You cannot predict the future, so you cannot definitively say that silver coins will never be used as a currency again. It's highly likely they won't, but not impossible. I think plenty of people who collect gold, silver, platinum and other rare metals see beyond the physical item. There are industrial uses for these materials, as you say, which could mean they get melted down for their useful properties in electronics or plating. Like every other market in the world, the price changes on these metals due to supply and demand - that is where investors make money.

This is definitely true because no one knows the future and moreover as someone as done the comparison between the market capitalisation of both currencies I Dont think crypto is getting there anytime soon... In my own opinion, if crypto will even move closer to precious metal then it will have to enjoy the legitimacy it currently enjoys which I dont see happening anytime soon and even if that should happen, then it defeats most of the objective crypto represents in the first place...
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October 30, 2016, 05:59:39 PM
 #16

Gold is a bubble which may at any moment burst. I'm not buying gold right now and do not advise others. The price will fall.
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October 30, 2016, 06:04:28 PM
 #17

Gold is a bubble which may at any moment burst. I'm not buying gold right now and do not advise others. The price will fall.

I disagree, I think there is still a lot of upside with many predicting $5k gold by 2020.

If trump wins expect a $100 price increase overnight.
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October 30, 2016, 06:08:08 PM
 #18

Gold is a bubble which may at any moment burst. I'm not buying gold right now and do not advise others. The price will fall.

I disagree, I think there is still a lot of upside with many predicting $5 gold by 2020.

If trump wins expect a $100 price increase overnight.

You are half true. Gold can rise $100 overnight only if Hillary gets elected, not Trump. Hillary wants to have war with Russia, not Trump. She is giving weapons to the rebels in Syria, not Trump. Yet you say if Trump gets elected we should expect a 100$ rise in gold??Nope.

edit: Actually i guess you are right. If Trump gets elected we may see a 100$ rise. On the other hand if Hillary gets elected... 500+

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markj113
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October 30, 2016, 06:09:41 PM
 #19

Gold is a bubble which may at any moment burst. I'm not buying gold right now and do not advise others. The price will fall.

I disagree, I think there is still a lot of upside with many predicting $5 gold by 2020.

If trump wins expect a $100 price increase overnight.

You are half true. Gold can rise $100 overnight only if Hillary gets elected, not Trump. Hillary wants to have war with Russia, not Trump. She is giving weapons to the rebels in Syria, not Trump. Yet you say if Trump gets elected we should expect a 100$ rise in gold??Nope.

The establishment wants a Hilary win, I think a trump win will make the markets nervous and thats always good for gold prices.
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October 30, 2016, 06:15:02 PM
 #20

Gold is a bubble which may at any moment burst. I'm not buying gold right now and do not advise others. The price will fall.

I disagree, I think there is still a lot of upside with many predicting $5 gold by 2020.

If trump wins expect a $100 price increase overnight.

You are half true. Gold can rise $100 overnight only if Hillary gets elected, not Trump. Hillary wants to have war with Russia, not Trump. She is giving weapons to the rebels in Syria, not Trump. Yet you say if Trump gets elected we should expect a 100$ rise in gold??Nope.

The establishment wants a Hilary win, I think a trump win will make the markets nervous and thats always good for gold prices.

Who gives a shit about the establisment? There are facts. She wants to start WW3. If she gets elected both Trump and Hillary voters will go for a rush on gold. Trump followers will be the first ones who hoard gold because they are smart, when the stupid killary voters realize what they've done they will join them too and double the effect.

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