My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;)

[tokeweed]

Another dead cat bounce.  Expect BTC/USD to fall again soon folks.  And imho, if you missed going short for whatever reasons, where the price of Bitcoin is now is a good window for a little shorting.  Check the daily chart if you can, there has been three lower highs already including the one now.

That is a very very bad idea. According to a lot of analysts the bottom was in. In general you never want to short after a huge crash had just happened in the previous weeks. The overall trend is clearly UP. (Just my opinion).

I'll keep that in mind, thanks for the advice.  Although I still 'feel' the  dumps aren't over yet.  Only time will tell, so we'll see.

Did nobody notice the huge bullish divergence on the 4h charts? Selling volume on the last drop to $890 was way lower than the drop before to $940. This should be telling you the sellers are drying up and the price will be going up soon. We may see another drop later but I expect the price to go up for a while now. My target is $1165 in 1-2 weeks from now, after which something will trigger another drop. Probably Roger Ver will pull another Mike Hearn and will announce he is giving up on Bitcoin and moving his entire stash to Monero or some other fancy alt of his taste.

Posting a chart so we can visualize your idea would be really nice if you don't mind.  My sole purpose for this thread was to get some good discussions going.  Please feel free to post all your charts and the thought process behind them.

[1714019061]

1714019061

[tokeweed]

Why I Think This Latest Upswing Isn't Sustainable.

The reason is simple.  There's simply no serious volume to support this recent upswing, and in fact, the volume is falling.  If a trend can happen on such small volume, isn't the opposite also very much possible?

Here are some charts to show that it's happening to multiple exchanges.

Bitfinex


Bitflyer (Japan)


Bitstamp


Kraken (XBT/EUR)

[italianMiner72]

Why I Think This Latest Upswing Isn't Sustainable.

The reason is simple.  There's simply no serious volume to support this recent upswing, and in fact, the volume is falling.  If a trend can happen on such small volume, isn't the opposite also very much possible?

Here are some charts to show that it's happening to multiple exchanges.

Kraken (XBT/EUR)

I'm really interested to this volume analisys...
usually, what happened when price rise, but without the support of volume??
(i think to know, but better get a confirm!)

[york780]

Why I Think This Latest Upswing Isn't Sustainable.

The reason is simple.  There's simply no serious volume to support this recent upswing, and in fact, the volume is falling.  If a trend can happen on such small volume, isn't the opposite also very much possible?

Here are some charts to show that it's happening to multiple exchanges.

Kraken (XBT/EUR)

I'm really interested to this volume analisys...
usually, what happened when price rise, but without the support of volume??
(i think to know, but better get a confirm!)

Topping.

[tokeweed]

I'm really interested to this volume analisys...
usually, what happened when price rise, but without the support of volume??
(i think to know, but better get a confirm!)

Topping.

Yup.  It could drop anytime now and the funny part is nobody could really predict them accurately no matter how hard they draw all those lines in their charts.  Some could increase the probability to make them right tho.  And that makes them profit more than others.

[Money Maker Shaker]

Please help me understand the logic behind this. I should say that I am new to this and just trying to learn, so I'd appreciate some help.

I took the liberty of adding these red and greed arrows on your chart.


The part that I don't understand is the part where you say volume has dropped. I can see that on the chart but I don't get why it is considered a drop.

you see whenever there is a sharp movement (up or down) in price, the volume is always higher because of a lot of action. [The red arrows pointing out a couple of example candles]

and whenever things are moving slower, the volume is also smaller. [The greed arrows pointing out a couple of example areas).

So my thoughts are:
In case of your red line on the right, you are comparing the volume of 3 major sharp moves with a series of slower movement upwards.
And one of them (the biggest one) was only a 3 minute drop and rise from ~1200 to $1350 and immediately down to ~1100 and back to ~1200!

This is why I don't get why you (and I see others) call these situations drop in volume. So what am I missing?

[tokeweed]

Please help me understand the logic behind this. I should say that I am new to this and just trying to learn, so I'd appreciate some help.

I took the liberty of adding these red and greed arrows on your chart.


The part that I don't understand is the part where you say volume has dropped. I can see that on the chart but I don't get why it is considered a drop.

Sorry, I should have made that clear.  But check the middle of March until May in the charts Imposted.  I even drew a descending trend line.

you see whenever there is a sharp movement (up or down) in price, the volume is always higher because of a lot of action. [The red arrows pointing out a couple of example candles]

and whenever things are moving slower, the volume is also smaller. [The greed arrows pointing out a couple of example areas).

Check my reply above.

So my thoughts are:
In case of your red line on the right, you are comparing the volume of 3 major sharp moves with a series of slower movement upwards.
And one of them (the biggest one) was only a 3 minute drop and rise from ~1200 to $1350 and immediately down to ~1100 and back to ~1200!

This is why I don't get why you (and I see others) call these situations drop in volume. So what am I missing?

Again expained above.  Sorry for the misunderstanding.  And I tend to have a simple view and understanding of the markets.  Complicating it makes me hesitate from pulling the trigger.

[tokeweed]

BTC/USD:  What Next?



This doesn't look good.  Bitcoin is now a tad over 100 USD below it's 10 day low.  That usually is a beginning of a reversal.  But the good news is it did the same twice this year and then surged really strong after that, as shown in the chart above.

But really, the market is very unpredictable.  So I ask you, is this the same pattern or is it the beginning of bearish times ahead?

[tokeweed]

BTC/USD:  Time to Get Some?



Notice the higher lows and the decrease in volatility.  Now if this pattern continues, we could see BTC jump up and down in a tighter range of 2400 USD to 2700 USD or so.  Overall market sentiment for BTC is still overall good.   Caveat Emptor, but it could be a nice time to start getting some again.

[magneto]

BTC/USD:  Time to Get Some?



Notice the higher lows and the decrease in volatility.  Now if this pattern continues, we could see BTC jump up and down in a tighter range of 2400 USD to 2700 USD or so.  Overall market sentiment for BTC is still overall good.   Caveat Emptor, but it could be a nice time to start getting some again.

A few green candles in a row, indicating that a new round of bullish market activity is about to start. This is probably a good opportunity to make a quick and safe 100-200 USD per coin depending on how long you're comfortable holding your position.

I think that 3000 is going to be a level that bitcoin is going to retest very soon. Probably before the UASF date. As you said, a lot less volatility, in fact every day i check the price of btc and it just doesn't seem to be moving much at all. Sideways movement is always the sign of bull markets, again.

I just found this thread and regret not having found it ages ago... Glad to see you're still actively posting analytics, though. Keep it up, bud!

[tokeweed]

Damn, the UASF.  I keep forgetting about that.  I think the traders will get iffy buying Bitcoins as August 1 comes closer and closer.  I don't think they'll be buying up anything above the very recent high of 2640 - 2650 USD, but expect too see massive bids at low prices just in case some people start dumping.

You guys think the blockchain will split?  I don't.

[Biro Bob]

You guys think the blockchain will split?  I don't.

I don't think so either.

[sukiho]

in my opinion the exchanges are not the only mover of the price, btc isnt only used to buy and sell fiat on exchanges. I dont know exactly how important they are htese days but I find it odd that nobody uses the info available at  https://blockchain.info/charts and other places when trying to predict price movements

[tokeweed]

Market jitters is setting in.  I think we're entering bear territory folks, if this continues then i wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin goes back down below 2000 USD.  Some folks are probably getting spooked with BIP 148 and a possible split in the chain.  Don't think it's happening but I still fear for the price.  

[Denker]

Market jitters is setting in.  I think we're entering bear territory folks, if this continues then i wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin goes back down below 2000 USD.  Some folks are probably getting spooked with BIP 148 and a possible split in the chain.  Don't think it's happening but I still fear for the price.  

Well if you got some money left just put a few orders around $2k and $1.9k and $1.8k for instance.
Looking at the weekly I wouldn't be surprised if we touch the MA 20 (~$1800 at the moment) before moving up again.
But I'm also just guessing here. I think we will have to wait and see what's going to happen in august.

[GanjaFarmer23]

Market jitters is setting in.  I think we're entering bear territory folks, if this continues then i wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin goes back down below 2000 USD.  Some folks are probably getting spooked with BIP 148 and a possible split in the chain.  Don't think it's happening but I still fear for the price.  

Market can just as easily consolidate with chop rather than a real bearmove, both things does the trick. Unless something really fucked happens around Aug 1, any drop will probably be bought up quickly. Everyone and their mother is looking at 1800$.

[naughty1]

Market jitters is setting in.  I think we're entering bear territory folks, if this continues then i wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin goes back down below 2000 USD.  Some folks are probably getting spooked with BIP 148 and a possible split in the chain.  Don't think it's happening but I still fear for the price.  

That's what I'm worried about, the value of bitcoin can seriously deteriorate in the future, I am very confused between selling and holding. I need a wise decision, because the value of bitcoin can be less than $ 2,000

[tokeweed]

Market jitters is setting in.  I think we're entering bear territory folks, if this continues then i wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin goes back down below 2000 USD.  Some folks are probably getting spooked with BIP 148 and a possible split in the chain.  Don't think it's happening but I still fear for the price.  

Well if you got some money left just put a few orders around $2k and $1.9k and $1.8k for instance.
Looking at the weekly I wouldn't be surprised if we touch the MA 20 (~$1800 at the moment) before moving up again.
But I'm also just guessing here. I think we will have to wait and see what's going to happen in august.

Actually if I didn't lose the last two attempts in shorting BTC, I would short it right now.  There's some probability that it's falling below 2000 USD with all the BIP 148 UASF and Segwit2x NYA sh*t going on.  Couple that with the current price action then we have a recipe for a market crash.

On Twitter there's LukeJr., who's implying if UASF fails, he'll do a split and let that be the altcoin with a new POW algorithm.  This is gonna be interesting.

[tokeweed]

It looks like this might be the first time Bitcoin's going below 2000 USD after staying there for almost two months.

I have a couple of questions for you.

1.  Is the bull run over?
2.  How low do you think will this go especially after August?

Edit:  With all the BS drama, I'd say it could go as low as 1500 USD or lower.

[tokeweed]

BTC/USD:  LOL



And this is why I have been so reluctant on shorting Bitcoin.  All it takes is a group of motivated traders to buy it up significantly moving the price up and hitting all those automotaic stop losses and margin calls making the price rise accelerate even faster.