Price Chart: April 9th = $200, April 15th = $300

[deeplink]

I am bullish BTC, but this media driven speculation + hoarding is not helping BTCs long-term prospects IMO. I personally don't believe it can exist as a purely speculative asset. I would much rather see a gradual rise. There is too much risk in buying into a parabola.

If you care about BTC, you really don't want it to go to $300 by April 15th......

If you think the price rises too fast at any moment, you should sell your BTC and get back in after it has corrected. That is the idea of a market where price = opinion of thousand/millions of people. The speculators that are best at estimating the correct price will gain the most and the market gains because it resembles a more correct price.

In other words, put your money where your mouth is. If BTC goes to $300 by April 15th, I would sell, wait and buy back later. Or maybe not

[1715032503]

1715032503

[1715032503]

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[Manticore]

I am bullish BTC, but this media driven speculation + hoarding is not helping BTCs long-term prospects IMO. I personally don't believe it can exist as a purely speculative asset. I would much rather see a gradual rise. There is too much risk in buying into a parabola.

If you care about BTC, you really don't want it to go to $300 by April 15th......

If you think the price rises too fast at any moment, you should sell your BTC and get back in after it has corrected. That is the idea of a market where price = opinion of thousand/millions of people. The speculators that are best at estimating the correct price will gain the most and the market gains because it resembles a better price.

In other words, put your money where your mouth is. If BTC goes to $300 by April 15th, I would sell, wait and buy back later.

I think that would be a no-brainer.

[BitcoinTate]

Why do people draw straight lines on linear charts? I'd expect any real trends to be more relative (and thus, logarithmic).

Lol! +1 ....Good point my friend!.... I will do that on my prediction for the second half of April after we hit $300!

Of course the fundamental theorem of calculus or the area under a curve really only boils down to a bunch of straight lines and boxes.

[BitcoinTate]

Jesus... I thought more people would be ripping this apart. Guess all the bears are off sulking somewhere after selling off all there BTC. lol!

[therealodog]

lol wtf you literally just shat all over that chart

[zarl]

I said in various posts three or four weeks ago that this could easily go up to three digits (although I was cautious), so I don't think it was that far fetched.

The problem here is that you are assuming those account holders will be indiscriminately buying bitcoins at market price. Doubtful.

I'd like to know more about these accounts. Is 57000 the number of bonafide, funded accounts? Or does it include people that have simply signed up out of curiosity? I know several people that signed up at Mt. Gox but never funded their accounts.

Also Some like myself signed up, funding the account only with BTC (until i get verified, to fund with cash) no4500 in line

[BitcoinTate]

Next Tuesday I will be selling half of my BTC at $195 and buying back in at $165 the same day.

[Hyena]

That's really cool what you guys are planning. Sell and buy back after these periodic flash crashes. Too bad I have buried my coins in paper wallets several months ago in a safe place like treasure chests. Not going after them any time soon

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

I said in various posts three or four weeks ago that this could easily go up to three digits (although I was cautious), so I don't think it was that far fetched.

The problem here is that you are assuming those account holders will be indiscriminately buying bitcoins at market price. Doubtful.

I'd like to know more about these accounts. Is 57000 the number of bonafide, funded accounts? Or does it include people that have simply signed up out of curiosity? I know several people that signed up at Mt. Gox but never funded their accounts.

ok so lets say three out of ten dont ever put money into mt gox. but if you think there arent people signing up to put 10 k or 100k into there account than your crazy. thats why i think its fair to average all accounts to 1,000. 

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

I said in various posts three or four weeks ago that this could easily go up to three digits (although I was cautious), so I don't think it was that far fetched.

The problem here is that you are assuming those account holders will be indiscriminately buying bitcoins at market price. Doubtful.

I'd like to know more about these accounts. Is 57000 the number of bonafide, funded accounts? Or does it include people that have simply signed up out of curiosity? I know several people that signed up at Mt. Gox but never funded their accounts.

ok so lets say three out of ten dont ever put money into mt gox. but if you think there arent people signing up to put 10 k or 100k into there account than your crazy. thats why i think its fair to average all accounts to 1,000. 

additionaly why wouldnt they just look at mt gox and see any info that there is, signing up is a hastle and you would only wast your time if you were going to put money into it. its not what people do for fun....hahaha want to go golfing? no want to go to a movie? no want to go snowboarding? no I just want to sign up for a mt gox account thats way funner!!! yay. that was better than sex! now lest not put money in it as we see the price continue to increase. hahaha

[Manticore]

I said in various posts three or four weeks ago that this could easily go up to three digits (although I was cautious), so I don't think it was that far fetched.

The problem here is that you are assuming those account holders will be indiscriminately buying bitcoins at market price. Doubtful.

I'd like to know more about these accounts. Is 57000 the number of bonafide, funded accounts? Or does it include people that have simply signed up out of curiosity? I know several people that signed up at Mt. Gox but never funded their accounts.

ok so lets say three out of ten dont ever put money into mt gox. but if you think there arent people signing up to put 10 k or 100k into there account than your crazy. thats why i think its fair to average all accounts to 1,000. 

additionaly why wouldnt they just look at mt gox and see any info that there is, signing up is a hastle and you would only wast your time if you were going to put money into it. its not what people do for fun....hahaha want to go golfing? no want to go to a movie? no want to go snowboarding? no I just want to sign up for a mt gox account thats way funner!!! yay. that was better than sex! now lest not put money in it as we see the price continue to increase. hahaha

Out of curiosity....it takes two seconds to sign up. That's exactly what I did when I first heard about bitcoin. If the average person reads a news story that mentions BTC/Gox, they probably go to the site to see what the fuss is about, spending the two seconds to enter their email. I didn't say it was America's new pastime.

[Manticore]

I said in various posts three or four weeks ago that this could easily go up to three digits (although I was cautious), so I don't think it was that far fetched.

The problem here is that you are assuming those account holders will be indiscriminately buying bitcoins at market price. Doubtful.

I'd like to know more about these accounts. Is 57000 the number of bonafide, funded accounts? Or does it include people that have simply signed up out of curiosity? I know several people that signed up at Mt. Gox but never funded their accounts.

ok so lets say three out of ten dont ever put money into mt gox. but if you think there arent people signing up to put 10 k or 100k into there account than your crazy. thats why i think its fair to average all accounts to 1,000.  

Speculators should be wishing for 1000's upon 1000's of tiny accounts. The masses of people gambling with fun money ($500 here, $1000 there) who don't care about losing it is what might drive this higher. The savvier the investor, the less chance they would buy into recent action.

Assuming a river of 60MM is flowing in to buy BTC hand over fist with complete disregard for the recent run-up is crazy. This would need to be a full blown massive panic/bubble for that to happen. If it does happen, it will be interesting to watch.

We are currently 10 fold higher than we were in January. At $300, we will be 20+ fold higher than we were in January. Have fundamentals changed by a factor of 20+ in the past 2 1/2 months? If 60MM did rush in to buy indiscriminately, I guarantee the bubble that would be inflated would come to a violent end fairly quickly. When everyone hoards and, at some point, there are no longer buyers....that's when things go south, especially in such a niche, non-ubiquitous market. There are masses of people that will probably never warm to the idea of BTC as digital gold, certainly not anytime soon.

Slow growth would serve BTC in the long-term and win over a lot more people, which would be needed to sustain any massive run-up. I do think there is a chance for a last leg, though. Still highly doubt we will see $200 & $300 on the previously mentioned dates.

[jackofspades]

and then from 300 to 1k by june 1 2013
the world has seen BTC's value and many are embracing it!

300 by 4/15

1000 by 6/1

sky is the limit im buying all i can.

[||bit]

Given the massive influx of people into BTC and the amount of media attention it has received in the last two weeks I predict BTC will hit $200 by April 9th and $300 by April 15th if the current trend continues.

If you look at the massive rise in Google searches for BTC along with the BTC client download increase and the 60,000 new accounts at Mt. Gox last month I believe the upward exponential trend will continue for at least two more weeks. There is a lot of capital right now waiting to flood into BTC.

Right now the wall at $300.00 is 44.88K BTC. So that's 44,880 BTC x $300 = $13,464,000.00

60,000 new accounts last month x $1,000 per new account = $60,000,000.00.

BTC is way under valued!


Small Red Horizontal Lines = Previous flash crash bottoms.

Black Trend Lines = 1 set for upper values, 1 set for flash crash bottom values.

Gray Trend Lines = Attempt at exponential trend line increase.

Green Dot = Price prediction point for $200 and $300.

Historically big price increases tend to occur on Mondays and Tuesdays after deposits clear from the weekend which is why I pick the 9th and 15th.

Please forgive the crudeness of the chart. Bears, what say you? Tell me why it wont happen?

I think this is quite doable. This uptrend started at a base around $10. So, it wouldn't be different than the run from $1.00 to about $35.00 in mid 2011. The larger dollar amount needed to make the purchases can easily be compensated by a greater base of interest and further energized with the more positive press/publicity today versus 2011. To confirm the greater interest, just show that there are 10 times as many wallet holders today as there were during the 2011 surge. However, I think this surge will have more holding power because of the apparently better press, signs of legitimacy and a seemingly broader growing interest.

Late entry: Going by this chart http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users, which only goes back to about April 2012, I see approximately 4,000 wallets versus the current 185,000 wallets. If this is proportionate to interested bitcoin users, then you meet your x30 wallet users to reach $300. In fact, you have at least x46 (I think it safe to assume fewer users wouldhave been online in mid 2011 - no data was found that far back). Does that mean it will at least surge to $460? Who knows. 

[Luckybit]

$5000 by December 25 2013. $10,000 by spring 2014. $20,000 by summer 2014. $100,000 by Dec 2014.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

I said in various posts three or four weeks ago that this could easily go up to three digits (although I was cautious), so I don't think it was that far fetched.

The problem here is that you are assuming those account holders will be indiscriminately buying bitcoins at market price. Doubtful.

I'd like to know more about these accounts. Is 57000 the number of bonafide, funded accounts? Or does it include people that have simply signed up out of curiosity? I know several people that signed up at Mt. Gox but never funded their accounts.

ok so lets say three out of ten dont ever put money into mt gox. but if you think there arent people signing up to put 10 k or 100k into there account than your crazy. thats why i think its fair to average all accounts to 1,000.  

Speculators should be wishing for 1000's upon 1000's of tiny accounts. The masses of people gambling with fun money ($500 here, $1000 there) who don't care about losing it is what might drive this higher. The savvier the investor, the less chance they would buy into recent action.

Assuming a river of 60MM is flowing in to buy BTC hand over fist with complete disregard for the recent run-up is crazy. This would need to be a full blown massive panic/bubble for that to happen. If it does happen, it will be interesting to watch.

We are currently 10 fold higher than we were in January. At $300, we will be 20+ fold higher than we were in January. Have fundamentals changed by a factor of 20+ in the past 2 1/2 months? If 60MM did rush in to buy indiscriminately, I guarantee the bubble that would be inflated would come to a violent end fairly quickly. When everyone hoards and, at some point, there are no longer buyers....that's when things go south, especially in such a niche, non-ubiquitous market. There are masses of people that will probably never warm to the idea of BTC as digital gold, certainly not anytime soon.

Slow growth would serve BTC in the long-term and win over a lot more people, which would be needed to sustain any massive run-up. I do think there is a chance for a last leg, though. Still highly doubt we will see $200 & $300 on the previously mentioned dates.

I agree with you on two counts, i dont think we will see the run up to 300 that fast and second if we did i dont think it would be all that good for bitcoin as the intended product. in fact im crossing my fingers it doesn't, i hope it grows at an average of 2% a day with some cooling here and there. 300 by December and then doubles the next year to 600.  if this thing just flatlines and sputters I dont know if that would be all that good for it ether.

[PachucoBro]

WOW that chart sux big time... total optimist, gonna be rich, buy, buy, buy... not only is that chart just a mess, but it actually has no REAL technical analysis. Drawing a straight line .. ahem multiple straight lines on ever run up is not predicting anything.

How's that for someone slamming your speculation? LOL

Ok so someone does not have to be a BEAR to think your expectations, numbers and chart suck. I know BitCoins will continue to move along over time. I don't see a return to $30 anytime soon, but there will be a rather large correction atleast withing a few weeks or month or two.

There are so many factors outside of looking at a chart that goes STRAIGHT UP... the actual technical analysis of that cahrt would say STAY AWAY there is a correction coming.

So what you are really doing is fundamental analysis about media and people's sentiments and what can be bought or traded with BTC.

Even then you are thinking only of all the good fundamentals and missing all the bad points. Like what can you really use BTCs for?
Paying for your Wordpress account?
Buying a cup of coffee at one of about 100 coffee shops here in the US?

Oh now you are going to give me links to all those new websites that sell computers and electronics and are like eBay... we shall see how long those people offer items for sale with BTC when the BTC/USD starts to correct and drop even as little as 1-5% per day. I guarantee people won't be selling tangible things for BTC knowing it will be worth less by the end of the day.

What about Hashrates from the supposed new ASIC miners. Now you are going to introduce 1,000s of BTC into the market that WILL BE SOLD because those miners need their money back for the $20k USD they spent to buy the rigs.

Many factors to consider and being that the price on MtGOX has been pretty quiet so far this weekend I worry that people who have profit will take some profit now and newcomers will wait to see what happens before buying at Market Price.

[chrsjrcj]

$5000 by December 25 2013. $10,000 by spring 2014. $20,000 by summer 2014. $100,000 by Dec 2014.

From your keyboard, to Satoshi's ears.  

[Arzack]

...I worry that people who have profit will take some profit now and newcomers will wait to see what happens before buying at Market Price.

And these newcomers will be more and more inclined to panic sell.

[alexh]

Im glad i got in before it took off that much. $300 on 15th? That would be insane...