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Author Topic: What effect did the Trump's (unexpected) victory on BTC?  (Read 954 times)
BTC_ISTANBUL
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November 19, 2016, 08:10:54 PM
 #1

The new economical attitude of the new president and  interest rate will affect the number of people who will invest in BTC this year.

Well, for a long time the gold was accepted as the safe heaven during chaotic times.However, the gold is losing its place to BTC.This is mainly the easiness of transfer and keeping.Everything seems positive for BTC in near future however have we missed the big picture?What if there is a problem between USA and China?Well, new American origined pools will appear suddenly, so 'the force awakens'.Will the american pools will satisfy Trump or will he order a new digital currency controlled by USA goverment directly.If he does decide to the so, can USA centered new currency take the place of decentralized BTC?
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November 19, 2016, 10:54:16 PM
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Will the american pools will satisfy Trump or will he order a new digital currency controlled by USA goverment directly.If he does decide to the so, can USA centered new currency take the place of decentralized BTC?

I don't think you're right that you can just force a new digital currency through - Bitcoin has arguably succeeded because it is decentralised and separate from government interference. Trump might introduce new regulations around digital currencies but I doubt that will happen for a couple years and will be more targeted towards generating tax revenue. The only reason mining moved over to China is because they actively supported it as a revenue stream and utilised cheap power sources like hydro electric dams. Bitcoin might be high right now, but gold has held it's value for a much longer time historically.

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November 19, 2016, 10:58:29 PM
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I think that won't change anything. Nothing was stated about it and I doubt that mandate will see a major change.
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November 19, 2016, 11:15:01 PM
 #4

Its far to early to tell as the elected President has yet to take office and it is pure speculation driving the market at the current time.
Could even be argued the current movement is based off a total separate issue,its really unclear.

I thought bitcoin was going to dip around this time of the year and was way out to lunch on that but I totally whiffed on factoring the election into the price speculation. Cheesy

What we should look to for hints on bitcoin is any future plans for online gambling in general. If the proper steps are layed out than we can expect a positive push for bitcoin as online poker comes back to America.
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November 20, 2016, 01:21:28 AM
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With the current price, I think it will good for bitcoins. That's just my opinion, it's hard to speculate early when he is new in the office and he got a lot of things to do, for sure bitcoin will not be the priority or any relation to it.

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November 20, 2016, 04:21:59 AM
 #6

Dollar index has been rising since the Trump victory and is at an eleven month high, meaning that as Bitcoin price has not fallen either that the exchangeable value for goods also has risen.  The dollar rose on anticipation of rate rises due to a right wing president which is speculation.
  Ultimately USA dealing with its debt if Trump does propose to do anything new, will likely see currency weakness which I think means higher bitcoin price as a relative stronghold

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BTC_ISTANBUL
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November 20, 2016, 04:35:32 AM
 #7

I am an old miner, I used to own the very first versions of Avalon and Bitmain and even catched the last era of BTC mining on GPU's.I have quitted mining last year because of card problems experienced with Bitmain.I believe many personal miners have also done the same.There are less miners in number but with more hash power.Strong hands on BTC for the moment and I believe chinese manufacturers wants BTC to go higher to attract more individuals to purchase their products.


On the other hand, stressing the Trump effect on BTC rise does not mean Trump is in charge and is the reason.It is always expectations.I read newspapers and magazines to understand American's expectations as a foreigner.What I understand is USA will not be an open market for Chinese and other far east countries.How?There will be a great economical value on Yuan/USD parity.

USA will try to under value USD where chinese will try to the same for Yuan.EURO is now almost equal to a dollar.

If you live in a country where devaluation can take place or goverment can overtake deposits at bank BTC and other currencies are the solution.

I also keep an eye on the English.I have met some elderly British gentlemen owning BTC and they were chatting about ETHER.It was interesting...I must focus on Brexit or Bremain.
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November 20, 2016, 04:35:44 AM
 #8

The new economical attitude of the new president and  interest rate will affect the number of people who will invest in BTC this year.

Well, for a long time the gold was accepted as the safe heaven during chaotic times.However, the gold is losing its place to BTC.This is mainly the easiness of transfer and keeping.Everything seems positive for BTC in near future however have we missed the big picture?What if there is a problem between USA and China?Well, new American origined pools will appear suddenly, so 'the force awakens'.Will the american pools will satisfy Trump or will he order a new digital currency controlled by USA goverment directly.If he does decide to the so, can USA centered new currency take the place of decentralized BTC?

If Trump's victory is bad for international trade, it is bad for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's advantages come to the fore when you are dealing with cross currency transactions. Banks take a big bite in terms of mark up on the exchange rate.

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November 20, 2016, 04:39:33 AM
 #9

Dollar index has been rising since the Trump victory and is at an eleven month high, meaning that as Bitcoin price has not fallen either that the exchangeable value for goods also has risen.  The dollar rose on anticipation of rate rises due to a right wing president which is speculation.
  Ultimately USA dealing with its debt if Trump does propose to do anything new, will likely see currency weakness which I think means higher bitcoin price as a relative stronghold

USD, is gaining strength due to an interest rate in December.It is obvious that Yellen and friends will do that.However, Trump announced that he does not like the policy of Yellen.I believe there will be a different person to sit on the chair of Yellen by 2017.

The interest rates may not continue to increase is USA if Trump wants people to invest in industry rather then financial instruments.

USA debts? They print USD Smiley
BTC_ISTANBUL
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November 20, 2016, 04:44:03 AM
 #10

The new economical attitude of the new president and  interest rate will affect the number of people who will invest in BTC this year.

Well, for a long time the gold was accepted as the safe heaven during chaotic times.However, the gold is losing its place to BTC.This is mainly the easiness of transfer and keeping.Everything seems positive for BTC in near future however have we missed the big picture?What if there is a problem between USA and China?Well, new American origined pools will appear suddenly, so 'the force awakens'.Will the american pools will satisfy Trump or will he order a new digital currency controlled by USA goverment directly.If he does decide to the so, can USA centered new currency take the place of decentralized BTC?

If Trump's victory is bad for international trade, it is bad for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's advantages come to the fore when you are dealing with cross currency transactions. Banks take a big bite in terms of mark up on the exchange rate.

Just close your eyes.You are an arab in Iraq.You are squeezed amoung enemy armies and terrorists.You want to escape.They stop you and rob you.They even take the gold teeth of your mother.If you are lucky they free you without a penny.Hopefully you have got a paper wallet.When you reach a safe country you will have access to your BTC. I have watched an interview with an immigrant 2-3 months ago on TV, it was almost like that.
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November 20, 2016, 04:49:49 AM
 #11


The interest rates may not continue to increase is USA if Trump wants people to invest in industry rather then financial instruments.

USA debts? They print USD Smiley


Nope. More investment in industry will push up inflation. That will boost the interest rates.
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November 20, 2016, 04:56:37 AM
 #12

If someone wants to increase investment at a country the interest rates must be decreased.If not the investor will choose to invest for interest rate rather then industry since it is easiar and safer.

On the other hand if interest rates are low the individuals may prefer to purchase goods and services rather then putting them at deposits and bonds and that also pushes inflation up.

If industrial investments are high there will be growth in GDP and this may reason stable growth for the giant USA economy so the rest of the world.

The investors will rush to emerging markets so the new cycle begins....
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November 20, 2016, 09:03:36 AM
 #13

I'm with the side that thinks Trump win had little to do with btc move, it was just an effect of the dollar.

If anything, it will be a full term before Trump administration has any resource to divert to priorities such as bitcoin. It's volume in trade is impressive but not nearly big enough to warrant attention with more pressing issues at hand.

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November 20, 2016, 11:23:19 AM
 #14

I'm with the side that thinks Trump win had little to do with btc move, it was just an effect of the dollar.

If anything, it will be a full term before Trump administration has any resource to divert to priorities such as bitcoin. It's volume in trade is impressive but not nearly big enough to warrant attention with more pressing issues at hand.

I don't think Trump has had an affect on the BTC price either, I do believe he will though.


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November 20, 2016, 09:46:01 PM
 #15

USD, is gaining strength due to an interest rate in December.It is obvious that Yellen and friends will do that.However, Trump announced that he does not like the policy of Yellen.I believe there will be a different person to sit on the chair of Yellen by 2017.

The interest rates may not continue to increase is USA if Trump wants people to invest in industry rather then financial instruments.

USA debts? They print USD Smiley
I love the idea USA has no real debt as it can just print more, there is a cost even while printing more dollars every day to meet deficits and previous debt.  All holders of dollars will lose in devalued dollars if USA just prints for its debt.  That helps USA government as many holders are outside the country, its a form of tax on the world.
There is no free money though, efficency is a form of value creation in an economy and in its currency used but just printing ink on cotton notes does not represent an improvement in efficency or utility for the world.  The value of all dollars declines in this case but perhaps less then if government defaults.  Its hard to know what Trump will do exactly, if too severe he will accelerate this downward trajectory into a fall.  The market does not perceive this as likely

Yellen will stay the course of her term till 2018, the FED is not a government body.  Its not impossible she is dismissed but normally this should not happen even where each has a policy disagreement.
The whole reason Federal reserve can buy government debt is that it supposedly is a private bank.  Its nonsense but Trump risks damaging this castle in the sky if he should interfere too much.

The headline interest rate is different to the effective interest rate.  The market accounts for inflation, when inflation exceeds base rates you have effective negative rates in play.  Federal reserve may keep raising rates and still fail to pay more then the deprecation of the currency.
This situation is very positive for stable assets such as gold or bitcoin possibly if it can sustain its usage in a global economy not just USA

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November 21, 2016, 07:19:57 AM
 #16

Trumps victory had some temporary effect on election day however still what is his thoughts regarding regulation, restrictions in the use of bitcoin is unclear.

What if there is a problem between USA and China?Well, new American origined pools will appear suddenly, so 'the force awakens'.Will the american pools will satisfy Trump or will he order a new digital currency controlled by USA goverment directly.If he does decide to the so, can USA centered new currency take the place of decentralized BTC?
I don't think they have any interest to make competition on bitcoin pools or mining power and what USA or any government can create is bitcoin clone which will be centralized and used by banks, so better not to compare anything like that replacing decentralized bitcoin.

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November 21, 2016, 07:42:08 AM
 #17

The new economical attitude of the new president and  interest rate will affect the number of people who will invest in BTC this year.

Well, for a long time the gold was accepted as the safe heaven during chaotic times.However, the gold is losing its place to BTC.This is mainly the easiness of transfer and keeping.Everything seems positive for BTC in near future however have we missed the big picture?What if there is a problem between USA and China?Well, new American origined pools will appear suddenly, so 'the force awakens'.Will the american pools will satisfy Trump or will he order a new digital currency controlled by USA goverment directly.If he does decide to the so, can USA centered new currency take the place of decentralized BTC?

this has been discussed before https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1679109.0
and it is a wrong thought since
- there aren't only two countries in the world!!!
- there is no way a miner can know where a transaction has came from so it doesn't matter where the miner is located they mine everything no matter what is the political situation between their politicians.
- US mining pool? do you mean mining farm? one of the reasons why China is mining so much is that they have access to cheap electricity and cold weather.

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November 21, 2016, 08:22:22 AM
 #18

I doubt if the Trump victory had any immediate impact on bitcoin. The price was already rising two weeks before the election and during that time, Hillary was expected by many to win the election. Maybe after a year of being in the office can something come out that might affect bitcoin directly, like international policies, trade issues and working relationships especially with China and Russia.
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November 21, 2016, 09:01:39 AM
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I doubt if the Trump victory had any immediate impact on bitcoin. The price was already rising two weeks before the election and during that time, Hillary was expected by many to win the election. Maybe after a year of being in the office can something come out that might affect bitcoin directly, like international policies, trade issues and working relationships especially with China and Russia.

It did have a immediate impact, I think the price rose with 7% just after the election result were made public. It will cause more uncertainty and doubt over the US economy, until Trump has officially implemented his policy changes. He made no secret that he does not like China and their influence over the US economy.

Russian relations on the other side, will cancel the influence that his problems with China will have. So Bitcoin mining being dominated by China, might face some political challenges under the Trump presidency or Trump might stand up to this challenge and compete locally with China. < Tax rebates for US companies involved in Bitcoin mining > He said, he wants to create local jobs, did he not? 

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November 21, 2016, 10:40:40 AM
 #20

USD, is gaining strength due to an interest rate in December.It is obvious that Yellen and friends will do that.However, Trump announced that he does not like the policy of Yellen.I believe there will be a different person to sit on the chair of Yellen by 2017.

The interest rates may not continue to increase is USA if Trump wants people to invest in industry rather then financial instruments.

USA debts? They print USD Smiley
I love the idea USA has no real debt as it can just print more, there is a cost even while printing more dollars every day to meet deficits and previous debt.  All holders of dollars will lose in devalued dollars if USA just prints for its debt.  That helps USA government as many holders are outside the country, its a form of tax on the world

It is not quite like that. The US debt held by foreign investors is largely in the form of US Treasuries and amounts to something like $6 trillion. The Treasuries are basically the same dollars (I mean they are just as liquid), but with that they are somewhat protected from the tax you describe in your post (inflation tax) since they are government bonds issued by the US which bear interest payable to the bearers (through discounts or coupon payments, depending on the type of the Treasuries)...

So if the US decides to print more dollars, they will just have to pay more interest on their debt instruments

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