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Author Topic: CRASH?! (not) For all the 'nay sayers'  (Read 4512 times)
Jobe7
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April 07, 2013, 12:28:22 AM
 #1

Understandably there's quite a few bitcoiners here and there who (and those who don't have any bitcoin) who keep preaching that bitcoin is a 'bubble' and that it's going to 'pop', and stuff like "hahahaha, silly bitcoiners, won't you feel silly when it pops." etc, etc

So, my question to you (if you are of this mindset) is - At what value will you finally say "ohhh, I better stay quiet now cause bitcoin really IS the future." or "oops, I best apologise cause I was wrong all along."

When it reaches $200? $1,000? $100,000? or more? Will there still be people screaming "bubble bubble" when it reaches $1 mil?
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yolo2222
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April 07, 2013, 11:18:27 AM
 #2

Understandably there's quite a few bitcoiners here and there who (and those who don't have any bitcoin) who keep preaching that bitcoin is a 'bubble' and that it's going to 'pop', and stuff like "hahahaha, silly bitcoiners, won't you feel silly when it pops." etc, etc

So, my question to you (if you are of this mindset) is - At what value will you finally say "ohhh, I better stay quiet now cause bitcoin really IS the future." or "oops, I best apologise cause I was wrong all along."

When it reaches $200? $1,000? $100,000? or more? Will there still be people screaming "bubble bubble" when it reaches $1 mil?

at 100k, id say its not a bubble Wink

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April 07, 2013, 12:22:35 PM
 #3

There is proven history (Tulip mania) that i can reach at least $ 500 000 per bitcoin (10 years of annual wage for bob the builder) There is no reason that that figure can not be surpassed tenfold or more.
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April 07, 2013, 01:07:23 PM
 #4

The value doesn't matter.

What matters to bitcoin a bubble or not is NOT the price. What matters is how much they are used by the wider public.
Today, the price is relatively high, and this is based on the -expectation- that bitcoins will be the common internet money of the future. Then, the current price is low. If mass usage never happens, or bitcoins dissapears and is forgotten about in the next decade, the current price is high (a bubble).

I think we will see large scale use but not a monopoly on internet payments by the bitcoin platform, supporting a price of $1000 to several $1000 within a decade. Ofcourse, we will take time and fluctuations to arrive at the 'final' price. We will overshoot it a couple of times, and dive below it.
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April 07, 2013, 01:35:59 PM
 #5

With these prices, what good is Bitcoin? What can you use it for in such times of volatility?
BitcoinAshley
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April 07, 2013, 02:43:34 PM
 #6

The assumption of a bubble is generally based on Paul Krugman's neo-keynesian fantasy world where people don't spend deflationary currencies. But people do - when their need for something in the immediate present surpasses the potential future value of the currency they will spend, and this is why we see record numbers of merchants signing up with bitpay. They're not signing up based on speculation, they're signing up because regular customers are emailing them and requesting that they accept bitcoins.

We don't need to pop the bitcoin bubble, we need to pop the fantasy bubble in these peoples' heads that convince them that bitcoin is a fad based on neo-keynesian "spend spend spend" bullshit. Bitcoin (or at least cryptocurrencies in general) are here to stay. And yes, it can be both a deflationary store of value and a currency. Perhaps it doesn't encourage unsustainable levels of consumption like the USD - the dollar is like a hot potato. I get rid of USD as quick as I can, either into deflationary alternatives or goods/services that I can't yet buy with deflationary decentralized currencies.
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April 07, 2013, 03:16:23 PM
 #7

The assumption of a bubble is generally based on Paul Krugman's neo-keynesian fantasy world where people don't spend deflationary currencies. But people do - when their need for something in the immediate present surpasses the potential future value of the currency they will spend, and this is why we see record numbers of merchants signing up with bitpay. They're not signing up based on speculation, they're signing up because regular customers are emailing them and requesting that they accept bitcoins.

We don't need to pop the bitcoin bubble, we need to pop the fantasy bubble in these peoples' heads that convince them that bitcoin is a fad based on neo-keynesian "spend spend spend" bullshit. Bitcoin (or at least cryptocurrencies in general) are here to stay. And yes, it can be both a deflationary store of value and a currency. Perhaps it doesn't encourage unsustainable levels of consumption like the USD - the dollar is like a hot potato. I get rid of USD as quick as I can, either into deflationary alternatives or goods/services that I can't yet buy with deflationary decentralized currencies.


To play devil's advocate, how many of these are genuine requests because people want to spend bitcoin? How many are those with a vested interest trying to sustain the price growth with no real interest in actually spending their bitcoins?

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April 07, 2013, 03:25:17 PM
 #8

The assumption of a bubble is generally based on Paul Krugman's neo-keynesian fantasy world where people don't spend deflationary currencies. But people do - when their need for something in the immediate present surpasses the potential future value of the currency they will spend, and this is why we see record numbers of merchants signing up with bitpay. They're not signing up based on speculation, they're signing up because regular customers are emailing them and requesting that they accept bitcoins.

We don't need to pop the bitcoin bubble, we need to pop the fantasy bubble in these peoples' heads that convince them that bitcoin is a fad based on neo-keynesian "spend spend spend" bullshit. Bitcoin (or at least cryptocurrencies in general) are here to stay. And yes, it can be both a deflationary store of value and a currency. Perhaps it doesn't encourage unsustainable levels of consumption like the USD - the dollar is like a hot potato. I get rid of USD as quick as I can, either into deflationary alternatives or goods/services that I can't yet buy with deflationary decentralized currencies.


To play devil's advocate, how many of these are genuine requests because people want to spend bitcoin? How many are those with a vested interest trying to sustain the price growth with no real interest in actually spending their bitcoins?

That'd be falling into the very same fallacy Ashley was just talking about. If the bitcoin price rises and there are plentiful bitcoin stores, people will spend their bitcoin. I'd consider buying a nice new laptop from Bitcoinstore right now if international shipping were practical and I could get a good system for less than, say, 2 BTC.

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April 07, 2013, 04:35:24 PM
 #9

Until this year it was quite hard to perform actual transactions - buying BTC in the first place was hard, and not that many places accepted them. That is starting to change though. I've done about half a dozen small BTC transactions in the past couple of months.

The massive amount of recent press coverage aside, the total number of users can't be more than a few tens of thousands of people (see blockchain.info), which is very small indeed.

We'll know that it has hit the mainstream when you can buy groceries or pay your utility bill using BTC.
Snowfire
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April 07, 2013, 04:36:25 PM
 #10

The value doesn't matter.

What matters to bitcoin a bubble or not is NOT the price. What matters is how much they are used by the wider public.


I would actually agree with you that far. But then:

Today, the price is relatively high, and this is based on the -expectation- that bitcoins will be the common internet money of the future.

No, it is based on speculators' belief that the value of this commodity will go up. No assumption as to their beliefs about why (if they even have any) can be made. Most of them are most likely uninterested in any vision of future digital money; they just see a get-rich-quick opportunity, and that is that.

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jrlichtman
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April 07, 2013, 04:53:25 PM
 #11

There are some that say that all economic activity is a bubble of some sort.

The question is whether there is residual value left over after 'x' pops.
Jobe7
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April 07, 2013, 08:26:48 PM
 #12

Well, look, c'mon, bunch of 'nay sayers', and you're all to scared to give an amount that would make you go "ohh, I was wrong.."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G-K7-QOaA4

Like this dude here  Tongue
phlogistonq
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April 07, 2013, 10:48:28 PM
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I would actually agree with you that far. But then:

Today, the price is relatively high, and this is based on the -expectation- that bitcoins will be the common internet money of the future.

No, it is based on speculators' belief that the value of this commodity will go up. No assumption as to their beliefs about why (if they even have any) can be made. Most of them are most likely uninterested in any vision of future digital money; they just see a get-rich-quick opportunity, and that is that.

For many people that will be true initially. They buy their first bitcoins to make a quick profit. But I think that once they have bought a few, they will start watching the price, read about it, talk to others about it, begin to notice bitcoin in the news/magazines etc and gradually gain the insight of what is so great about the whole concept. And I hope that will convert a lot of them into true bitcoin enthousiasts.
BitcoinAshley
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April 07, 2013, 10:49:17 PM
 #14

To play devil's advocate, how many of these are genuine requests because people want to spend bitcoin? How many are those with a vested interest trying to sustain the price growth with no real interest in actually spending their bitcoins?
That'd be falling into the very same fallacy Ashley was just talking about. If the bitcoin price rises and there are plentiful bitcoin stores, people will spend their bitcoin. I'd consider buying a nice new laptop from Bitcoinstore right now if international shipping were practical and I could get a good system for less than, say, 2 BTC.


The devil makes a good point - either way we have to assume that people spend deflationary currencies (at least enough to sustain economic activity) or assume that they don't.
I can only speak for myself; I spend my bitcoins on stuff, and I know plenty of other people that do. I think the stores making bitcoin sales would tell you that the deflationary hoarding theory is bullshit based on their sales records, but who knows. I don't have figures, I just have a seive in my hand leaking water at an alarming rate, and it's labeled "theory that bitcoins are not spent because deflation because Krugman and the mass media said..."
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April 08, 2013, 12:38:46 AM
 #15

I'm sick of the silly posts linking the bitcoin's price to the success of bitcoin. They are two completely separate things.

You can think "Wow, bitcoin is the future" a day after a massive crash where it's worth $1.
It can reach $1,000,000 a coin and think "Wow, this is totally a bubble".
It can reach $1,000,000 a coin and think "Wow, bitcoin is undervalued".


Bubble or not is determined by whether you believe the value is derived from core principles (people wishing to use it as a currency - trading / receiving / using BTC) or if you believe the value is derived from people speculating (I'm going to buy now because the price will rise, then I can sell and make money).

These are two independent things. The value of bitcoin could be rising by an uptake in people using it as a currency, but at the same time even more people could be speculating causing a bubble. That doesn't mean bitcoin isn't getting stronger and showing it's a currency of the future.

Personally I think you're silly if you think that the vast majority of people at the moment aren't purchasing for speculative reasons.
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April 08, 2013, 12:41:02 AM
 #16

I can only speak for myself but in my opinion the Bitcoins impact on the market will be impressive when the price goes to $1000 or even $5000 for one BTC.
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April 08, 2013, 12:56:15 AM
 #17

Bitcoin itself is not a bubble, however, I do think the price is in for a correction.

Am I spamming? Report me!
BitcoinAshley
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April 08, 2013, 02:21:52 AM
 #18

Bitcoin itself is not a bubble, however, I do think the price is in for a correction.


You mean the one we had like a week ago?  Grin Grin Grin

Time for another rally. Looks like it's started....
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April 08, 2013, 02:23:34 AM
 #19

We have a 20%-40% flash crash about every once or week or so. NBD.
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April 08, 2013, 02:30:58 AM
 #20

Think we'll hit $200 in the next 24 hours?

Or will some idiot DDOS MtGox first?
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