I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale. The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.
There is a demand from the hoarders. The value bitcoin once had is more or less gone. It has turned into roller coaster for greedy speculators. When they realize that their imaginary, digital numbers isn't worth anything than for trading I predict it will crash.
This. Early adopters fleecing late adopters, creating volatility and undermining the bitcoin economy.
It's disgusting. I was attracted by the technology behind bitcoin, but it obviously had to get exploited.
For a full on crash to happen, EVERY speculator would want to dump all at the same time. There'd have to be a specific reason for this. Like major exchanges getting hacked, or a difficulty spike prevents blocks from being made... as it stands now, a flash crash down to 25 or even 50% would be bought back up by additional speculators easily. You couldn't even call a 50% dip a crash right now, hoarders won't be phased by it and will continue hoarding. The only thing that can create enough of a panic to crash the price is news of a fundamental or potential flaw in bitcoin.
The 0.8.1 required upgrade coming in May could possibly have a bug that would cause this. That's where I'd put my money on the first sign of a crash happening.
It's enough with a few people starting to sell. When the rest see that the price is dipping they will get uneasy, considering all the money they put into the system. Then will not much be needed for a panic to break loose.
