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Author Topic: CRASH?! (not) For all the 'nay sayers'  (Read 4514 times)
talnted
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April 09, 2013, 05:40:12 PM
 #41

I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale.  The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.

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April 09, 2013, 05:43:59 PM
 #42

I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale.  The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.
There is a demand from the hoarders. The value bitcoin once had is more or less gone. It has turned into roller coaster for greedy speculators. When they realize that their imaginary, digital numbers isn't worth anything than for trading I predict it will crash.

@DanielJonss. On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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April 09, 2013, 05:54:07 PM
 #43

I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale.  The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.
There is a demand from the hoarders. The value bitcoin once had is more or less gone. It has turned into roller coaster for greedy speculators. When they realize that their imaginary, digital numbers isn't worth anything than for trading I predict it will crash.

This. Early adopters fleecing late adopters, creating volatility and undermining the bitcoin economy.
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April 09, 2013, 06:06:56 PM
 #44

For a full on crash to happen, EVERY speculator would want to dump all at the same time. There'd have to be a specific reason for this. Like major exchanges getting hacked, or a difficulty spike prevents blocks from being made... as it stands now, a flash crash down to 25 or even 50% would be bought back up by additional speculators easily. You couldn't even call a 50% dip a crash right now, hoarders won't be phased by it and will continue hoarding. The only thing that can create enough of a panic to crash the price is news of a fundamental or potential flaw in bitcoin.

The 0.8.1 required upgrade coming in May could possibly have a bug that would cause this. That's where I'd put my money on the first sign of a crash happening.
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April 09, 2013, 06:15:56 PM
 #45

I do not believe a crash will happen anytime soon. From the market data it appears there is substantial demand and flash crashes are not causing panic selling on a large scale.  The small dips are leading to alot of bids, or people trying to get a discount to short term average.
There is a demand from the hoarders. The value bitcoin once had is more or less gone. It has turned into roller coaster for greedy speculators. When they realize that their imaginary, digital numbers isn't worth anything than for trading I predict it will crash.

This. Early adopters fleecing late adopters, creating volatility and undermining the bitcoin economy.
It's disgusting. I was attracted by the technology behind bitcoin, but it obviously had to get exploited.

For a full on crash to happen, EVERY speculator would want to dump all at the same time. There'd have to be a specific reason for this. Like major exchanges getting hacked, or a difficulty spike prevents blocks from being made... as it stands now, a flash crash down to 25 or even 50% would be bought back up by additional speculators easily. You couldn't even call a 50% dip a crash right now, hoarders won't be phased by it and will continue hoarding. The only thing that can create enough of a panic to crash the price is news of a fundamental or potential flaw in bitcoin.

The 0.8.1 required upgrade coming in May could possibly have a bug that would cause this. That's where I'd put my money on the first sign of a crash happening.
It's enough with a few people starting to sell. When the rest see that the price is dipping they will get uneasy, considering all the money they put into the system. Then will not much be needed for a panic to break loose.

@DanielJonss. On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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April 10, 2013, 01:50:11 AM
 #46

ITT: People who make grand assumptions about what other people do with their bitcoins.

Like "greedy speculators" and "newcomers" and "old timers" and "hoarders" and "spenders"

The 5000th thread just like this... gets old. Why don't you look around and see what people are actually doing with their bitcoins.....

There are people with 500000000 USDs just sitting around. Hoarding. Yet the USD is used for millions of purchases every single day. How could a currency with OMGHOARDERS actually let people OMGSPEND? OMG did I just make MaTachi's BRAIN explode? Lol. Can a quasi-commodity function simultaneously as an exchange of value and a store of value? That functionality isn't just limited to fiat.

Next thing you know we're going to start talking about the big 1%er bitcoiners fleecing the 99%er new adopters with their greedy speculations. Did the Occupy Wall St crowd just join BitCoinTalk when they heard about the latest rally?

Whatever. Carry on... BTW I just saw a bug in your dreads, might want to take care of that...



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April 10, 2013, 01:52:34 AM
 #47

There is proven history (Tulip mania) that i can reach at least $ 500 000 per bitcoin (10 years of annual wage for bob the builder) There is no reason that that figure can not be surpassed tenfold or more.
I've seen this tulip bubble equivalence around a lot... A big contributor to it was the fact that the government at the time allowed people to void any contracts they made for a fee, so people could freely make very risky transactions without much actual risk

My attempt at adding to the bitcoin-using marketplace: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=171843.0
Like online video games? Check it out! I'm selling at a big discount
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April 10, 2013, 10:15:52 AM
 #48

There's no price it has to hit to not be a bubble. But if Bitcoin stays at the same price more or less for, say, three months, I'll declare it "not a bubble".
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