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Author Topic: those who are buying know something I don't  (Read 6411 times)
Razick
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April 08, 2013, 12:51:44 PM
 #41

Not necessarily. Look into the user base growth and it partially explains this. The rest is all the greater fool theory and the bubble mentality.



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BlackBison
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April 08, 2013, 12:52:52 PM
 #42

Why should anyone consider log-scale the proper scale?

Because its the proper scale for these things. Ask your math teacher tomorrow in school.

Ok, still looks like a bubble in log-scale.

If I were you i'd prefer the log scale. That way you look 'less wrong' about your absurd top calls since $20  Grin

superside
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April 08, 2013, 12:56:07 PM
 #43

Just because there is a giant rise in coin value doesn't mean it's a bubble. Bitcoins may be appreciating in value to where they are supposed to be. So instead of a pop, we may start to see stable value in the future...let's hope it continues to rise drastically until then Smiley
giarc
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April 08, 2013, 12:59:27 PM
 #44

It takes lots of confidence to buy in this market. Speculation: those who are buying in the past few weeks know something most of us here do not know yet. Possibly a big deal / series of deals being prepared behind the curtains. Bitcoincard, coinlabs, etc. - what are they up to?

Surely this logic could justify any purchase of any asset no matter how over valued providing the price is rising.

Choices

1) I know something other people don't, therefore I will buy as it will go up due to said information.
2) I know nothing but the price is rising, therefore other market participants are acting on choice one. I should "invest" like they are due to them making the correct decision. I will buy also.

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Crypt_Current
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April 08, 2013, 01:37:01 PM
 #45

Proudhon is not calling single digits anywhere in this thread, therefore:

time to short.

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April 08, 2013, 02:26:20 PM
 #46

sometimes I wonder if just because a bunch of nerds are not available to sell their fantasy coins at any price means that their coins are worth infinite, then I look at USD/euro/yen macro scene, and I realize that is just because a division by zero.
johnyj
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April 08, 2013, 02:48:14 PM
 #47

This is bad IMO. If normal people can not buy enough coin and any small amount of buy just push the price up due to liquidity problem, they will lose the interest of this thing. Only small speculators are interested in such kind of fast move, big investors have huge risk buying in such kind of illiquid market

And this might just proved that how much cheap money there are out there

Neverest
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April 08, 2013, 02:51:46 PM
 #48

Ok, still looks like a bubble in log-scale.

Yes.

+1 Greed is killing BTC at the moment. There must be many people with hundreds, thousands or more BTC bought/mined for nearly nothing. They are hoarding them, the actual trade volume is very low. If none of these early adopters cash out now, then the price will never stabilize.

If it is not stable (and it will need to be stable for a long time before trust is restored), then it won't be used as currency, which was the entire idea. Instead it is treated as an collectible item, an investment, actually empowering fiat money.
Nobody is checking BTC acceptance rates and trade volumes, everybody is looking at the USD value.

I am not saying it might not rise more, nobody knows. But as a merchant with tangible goods that cost real money, you'd be crazy to accept BTC when it is so volatile and as a consumer you'd be crazy to spend it as the fear of buyer remorse is larger than the fear of having worthless bits and bytes, because, hey, it can only go up, right!

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San1ty
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April 08, 2013, 02:57:28 PM
 #49

Ok, still looks like a bubble in log-scale.

Yes.

+1 Greed is killing BTC at the moment. There must be many people with hundreds, thousands or more BTC bought/mined for nearly nothing. They are hoarding them, the actual trade volume is very low. If none of these early adopters cash out now, then the price will never stabilize.

If it is not stable (and it will need to be stable for a long time before trust is restored), then it won't be used as currency, which was the entire idea. Instead it is treated as an collectible item, an investment, actually empowering fiat money.
Nobody is checking BTC acceptance rates and trade volumes, everybody is looking at the USD value.

I am not saying it might not rise more, nobody knows. But as a merchant with tangible goods that cost real money, you'd be crazy to accept BTC when it is so volatile and as a consumer you'd be crazy to spend it as the fear of buyer remorse is larger than the fear of having worthless bits and bytes, because, hey, it can only go up, right!

^
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April 08, 2013, 03:04:20 PM
 #50

Those "never sell" theories are total BS. Everyone has a selling point. For some it simply is much higher up than where we are now. We're in the process of price discovery and we will overshoot for sure, but the point is that it won't just go up forever. The expectations of many holders are just way beyond the current price.

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April 08, 2013, 03:19:29 PM
 #51

Dude, what are you talking about? over 2 million coins have been sold/bought in the past month alone at Mt gox. TWO MILLION COINS. Something is going on here. Over $180 million has been spent buying coins in the past month. Who has this much money and wants coins? Crazy times.

Smart and automated traders (and those that have enough to influence the price) will have sold. re-bought, re-sold etc etc. So I wonder how many BTC has really been traded and bi which percentage of the user-base.
But even if these were all different one-time trades, it still means that from the current supply of 11 million BTC over 80% has never left the wallet it was stored in. This means it is a collectible item, not a currency and with volatility, this will not change.

New crypto currencies are popping up fast, but we still need one (could be BTC) that will actually be used as a fairly stable currency. Until that moment these are investment bubbles. As said, that does not mean it won't go up. House prices did for a long time and these were backed by a basic need to live somewhere and cost of materials. But it was the greed of the professional gamblers (and the de-regulation of banking laws, does that ring a bell?) that made people lose their life savings and their houses.

But yes, crazy times indeed!

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Tronlet
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April 08, 2013, 03:32:51 PM
 #52

Dude, what are you talking about? over 2 million coins have been sold/bought in the past month alone at Mt gox. TWO MILLION COINS. Something is going on here. Over $180 million has been spent buying coins in the past month. Who has this much money and wants coins? Crazy times.

...Yeah, by traders.

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April 08, 2013, 03:36:19 PM
 #53




Surely this is a bubble and will pop soon enough. It will go away soon!

u need to adjust that for inflation,,,
[/quote]

Likewise Bitcoin should be adjusted for deflation.

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April 08, 2013, 04:18:04 PM
 #54

It takes lots of confidence to buy in this market. Speculation: those who are buying in the past few weeks know something most of us here do not know yet. Possibly a big deal / series of deals being prepared behind the curtains. Bitcoincard, coinlabs, etc. - what are they up to?

Or, those who are buying don't know something the rest of us know, like this is probably a bubble.

Or maybe it is people who want to actually use bitcoins, like buying something or sending money to a distant person or moving money across national boundaries without being constrained by capital controls.

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April 08, 2013, 04:20:07 PM
 #55

there are a lot of people being introduced to bitcoin at the moment who don't have much choice but to buy now - there's no signs of bitcoins dramatically dropping in value.


Here's a sign...



That is not a very good sign, it could mean we are going back to 20, or we could just level off around 200, or it could keep going up to 5000 and drop back down to 2000. Where does your sign say it will end up?

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April 08, 2013, 04:22:36 PM
 #56

What is so surprising? It is quite obvious the price will continue to rise, so even if it rises only $3, that is still $3 profit. When BTC hit $100 I remember seeing people on here saying they can't believe people are still buying, yet when the price hits $200 (probably not long now) then those 'crazy' people who bought at $100 have doubled their profits.
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April 08, 2013, 04:36:16 PM
 #57

Why should anyone consider log-scale the proper scale?

Because its the proper scale for these things. Ask your math teacher tomorrow in school.

Ok, still looks like a bubble in log-scale.

Did the move from 5 to 10 look like a bubble? Maybe while it was happening it looked like a bubble, but a few months later when the price remained close to 10 it no longer looked like a bubble, just a move from the old price to the new price. If the price levels out for a few months we will then know this is not a bubble, it is hard to tell while we are in the midst of the run up whether this price will be sustained.

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April 08, 2013, 04:40:21 PM
 #58

Why should anyone consider log-scale the proper scale?

Because its the proper scale for these things. Ask your math teacher tomorrow in school.

Ok, still looks like a bubble in log-scale.

Did the move from 5 to 10 look like a bubble? Maybe while it was happening it lookid like a bubble, but a few months later when the price remained close to 10 it no longer looked like a bubble, just a move from the old price to the new price. If the price levels out for a few months we will then know this is not a bubble, it is hard to tell while we are in the midst of the run up whether this price will be sustained.

Proudhon is a troll. I wouldn't waste my time responding to him.
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April 08, 2013, 04:46:20 PM
 #59


Likewise Bitcoin should be adjusted for deflation.
You can correct for monetary inflation, for example see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=147298.0

Corrected plot will show even sharper rise in actual value of coins.

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April 08, 2013, 04:51:51 PM
 #60

With all these bubble rumors, i think most newbuyers are just gambling something they can afford to loose, hoping to became rich/make some bucks some day.
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