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Author Topic: those who are buying know something I don't  (Read 6408 times)
justusranvier
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April 08, 2013, 04:52:33 PM
 #61

Ok, still looks like a bubble in log-scale.

Yes.

+1 Greed is killing BTC at the moment. There must be many people with hundreds, thousands or more BTC bought/mined for nearly nothing. They are hoarding them, the actual trade volume is very low. If none of these early adopters cash out now, then the price will never stabilize.

If it is not stable (and it will need to be stable for a long time before trust is restored), then it won't be used as currency, which was the entire idea. Instead it is treated as an collectible item, an investment, actually empowering fiat money.
Nobody is checking BTC acceptance rates and trade volumes, everybody is looking at the USD value.

I am not saying it might not rise more, nobody knows. But as a merchant with tangible goods that cost real money, you'd be crazy to accept BTC when it is so volatile and as a consumer you'd be crazy to spend it as the fear of buyer remorse is larger than the fear of having worthless bits and bytes, because, hey, it can only go up, right!

^
QFT! No price stability === no adoption. BTC needs stability more then anything.
How does your theory account for the growth in BitPay's transaction volume that exceeds the rate at which the USD/BTC exchange rate is growing?
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Crazy
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April 08, 2013, 04:55:55 PM
 #62

How does your theory account for the growth in BitPay's transaction volume that exceeds the rate at which the USD/BTC exchange rate is growing?
Ironically, the more BitPay succeeds, the more I believe people don't really trust the BTC market. BitPay is designed for the merchant, they are never exposed to the BTC market because it's fundamentally unstable right now. Which means, trust fiat, just use BTC because some kids are using it and it might bring in some more sales.
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April 08, 2013, 05:07:32 PM
 #63

How does your theory account for the growth in BitPay's transaction volume that exceeds the rate at which the USD/BTC exchange rate is growing?
Ironically, the more BitPay succeeds, the more I believe people don't really trust the BTC market. BitPay is designed for the merchant, they are never exposed to the BTC market because it's fundamentally unstable right now. Which means, trust fiat, just use BTC because some kids are using it and it might bring in some more sales.
That's partially true, but you're missing another big component, which is that most merchants can not yet pay their suppliers directly in Bitcoin and they aren't independently wealthy multimillionaires capable of paying their suppliers out of their own savings while accumulating bitcoins. They have to sell at least some fraction of their received bitcoins just to keep the business going. This will change once bitcoin acceptance begins to reach into the next level of the supply chain.

For now the payment processors are doing us all a favor by making sure there are actually bitcoins available for sale on the exchanges.
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April 08, 2013, 05:10:39 PM
 #64

How does your theory account for the growth in BitPay's transaction volume that exceeds the rate at which the USD/BTC exchange rate is growing?
Ironically, the more BitPay succeeds, the more I believe people don't really trust the BTC market. BitPay is designed for the merchant, they are never exposed to the BTC market because it's fundamentally unstable right now. Which means, trust fiat, just use BTC because some kids are using it and it might bring in some more sales.

This will be necessary in order for Bitcoin to continue growing. If all goes well, eventually people will realise they don't need to cash out into fiat, they can just use Bitcoin. It always surprises me how many people seem to think that Bitcoin must be instantly adopted by everyone overnight before they will consider it a success. Obviously that would never happen, it takes a bit of time for new ideas to catch on and the transition is a process which involves intermediate stages. Be aware of the risks, and act accordingly. Bitcoin is still an experiment in beta, with a massive potential upside.
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April 08, 2013, 05:10:51 PM
 #65

It takes lots of confidence to buy in this market. Speculation: those who are buying in the past few weeks know something most of us here do not know yet. Possibly a big deal / series of deals being prepared behind the curtains. Bitcoincard, coinlabs, etc. - what are they up to?

Surely this logic could justify any purchase of any asset no matter how over valued providing the price is rising.

Choices

1) I know something other people don't, therefore I will buy as it will go up due to said information.
2) I know nothing but the price is rising, therefore other market participants are acting on choice one. I should "invest" like they are due to them making the correct decision. I will buy also.

3) I know nothing but the price is rising, I find it strange to say the least, and will not buy in this kind of crazy market. My bitcoin savings are securely waiting.

This last option is how I feel and act, but I started this thread to try to understand what (1) may be, if anything at all. I just can't believe that these kinds of trade volumes in the skyrocketing market can happen without insider's confidence. Perhaps I am underestimating the ease with which investirs can get free fiat to invest...?


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April 08, 2013, 05:20:30 PM
 #66

That's partially true, but you're missing another big component, which is that most merchants can not yet pay their suppliers directly in Bitcoin and they aren't independently wealthy multimillionaires capable of paying their suppliers out of their own savings while accumulating bitcoins. They have to sell at least some fraction of their received bitcoins just to keep the business going. This will change once bitcoin acceptance begins to reach into the next level of the supply chain.

For now the payment processors are doing us all a favor by making sure there are actually bitcoins available for sale on the exchanges.
That is true, but I don't believe that is the motivating factor behind adopting BitPay.


This will be necessary in order for Bitcoin to continue growing. If all goes well, eventually people will realise they don't need to cash out into fiat, they can just use Bitcoin. It always surprises me how many people seem to think that Bitcoin must be instantly adopted by everyone overnight before they will consider it a success. Obviously that would never happen, it takes a bit of time for new ideas to catch on and the transition is a process which involves intermediate stages. Be aware of the risks, and act accordingly. Bitcoin is still an experiment in beta, with a massive potential upside.
Well that's my point. BitPay's success will be inversely proportional to Bitcoin's maturity and hence, stability.
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April 08, 2013, 05:35:55 PM
 #67

Right, put it more succinctly than I did but that's pretty much what I meant. However, I do think the length and degree of success will indirectly speak toward the true trust and faith in the Bitcoin economy.
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April 08, 2013, 05:45:22 PM
 #68

Those "never sell" theories are total BS. Everyone has a selling point. For some it simply is much higher up than where we are now. We're in the process of price discovery and we will overshoot for sure, but the point is that it won't just go up forever. The expectations of many holders are just way beyond the current price.

I think a lot of us have planned to keep as much of our assets in bitcoins as possible until it's a world wide accepted, day-to-day, bricks-and-mortar kind of currency. Then we never have to "cash out" but can instead pay our (thailand beach home) rent with bitcoins.

I am an evangelical missionary heading to China. Donations are welcome here (dedicated wallet): 1H8iswayfTaRb6oe2WjMCRmchBJHYyfx9z
You can find more information about my plans here: http://btcmission.com
wormbog
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April 08, 2013, 05:47:33 PM
 #69

Just received this from a friend. It could come handy when the parabolic ascent ends in a vertical drop:

Timothy 6:10
But the root of all these evils is the love of money, and there are some who have desired it and have erred from the faith and have brought themselves many miseries.

Get too fond of money and the masses might stop giving so much to the Church. Can't have that now, can we?
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April 08, 2013, 05:49:30 PM
 #70

Please don't paint religion as a greedy scheme just because the modern-day manifestation of material decadence exists in a few (primarily one) religion. And this is way off topic.
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April 08, 2013, 06:47:05 PM
 #71

Sell? For fiat? Nope.

Buy stuff with Bitcoin? Sure. If that's what you mean by "selling".

Spending them is a form of selling, yes. I don't really intend to sell most of them for fiat ever either. I plan on spending more of them in the future. Maybe I'll buy a house with bitcoins directly. That's something to dream of. Smiley

Denarium - Leading Physical Bitcoin Manufacturer - Gold Parity Coin Batch #2 NOW FOR SALE!
evolve
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April 08, 2013, 11:56:39 PM
 #72

There is a button "log scale" on the upper right side. click it to get a proper scaling of the y-axis.

I think it is hilarious that the true believers here think that looking at BTC price on a log scale changes the base information; it doesn't, BTC is still in a bubble no matter which chart you are looking at.



This:



and this:




both say the exact same thing.

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April 09, 2013, 12:36:24 AM
 #73

That's adorable.
Adrian-x
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April 09, 2013, 12:42:07 AM
 #74

both say the exact same thing.

I concur, I read that the past is not a predictor of the future, but I think we should expect exponential growth.  My advice to the Bears is always save 10% of everything you sell in a deflationary environment.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
proudhon
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April 09, 2013, 12:49:29 AM
 #75

There is a button "log scale" on the upper right side. click it to get a proper scaling of the y-axis.

I think it is hilarious that the true believers here think that looking at BTC price on a log scale changes the base information; it doesn't, BTC is still in a bubble no matter which chart you are looking at.



This:



and this:




both say the exact same thing.



Exactly.  One is screaming and the other is saying the same thing in a normal voice.  E.g. "BUBBLE! vs. "Hey dude, this is a bubble, btw.".
creativex
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April 09, 2013, 01:00:25 AM
 #76

Exactly.  One is screaming and the other is saying the same thing in a normal voice.  E.g. "BUBBLE! vs. "Hey dude, this is a bubble, btw.".

...and so your advice is?

01BTC10
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April 09, 2013, 01:04:38 AM
 #77

Exactly.  One is screaming and the other is saying the same thing in a normal voice.  E.g. "BUBBLE! vs. "Hey dude, this is a bubble, btw.".

...and so your advice is?
Panic buy.
MikeH
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April 09, 2013, 02:10:57 AM
 #78

sell sell sell before the bubble hits $1000 and pops!!
ehoffman
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April 09, 2013, 02:13:32 AM
 #79

sell sell sell before the bubble hits $1000 and pops!!


I'm gonna sell all now!  Too close to 1000...  Just a few hours left Grin

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April 09, 2013, 02:15:39 AM
 #80



So, from this graph, if I extrapolate, I can see that by next week-end we'll hit 500 Smiley

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