So when is it going to blow?

[Le Happy Merchant]

The assumption that was made about the new miner calculation which wasn't brought up, but is probably the most important, is that the miners will choose to sell all of their bitcoins. Most miners I know keep the vast majority of their mined coins within the Bitcoin economy and only sell enough to break even with electricity costs.

That is what I was trying to say earlier, though I must not have been clear enough.

[Crazy]

Well if that's true and there is $1.68million of new money coming in per week, nothing to worry about then. If I could be more thoroughly convinced of that I'd be bullish, too.

[mp420]

No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).

1. You assumed ~65% profitability for miners.

Actually, mining profitability is of no consequence. The costs that are poured into mining are new money too. So, actually, at $192/BTC,  $619200 of net new money must be inserted in the BTC economy. Whether that is a small or a large sum depends on what you compare it with.

edit: and by "new money" I mean "new value".

[Crazy]

Well they're assuming they are hoarding their profit in BTC, and liquidating what's necessary to pay the bills. So in that sense I think profit margin would matter. I do believe miners aren't selling off right now, not more than they need to cover costs. I don't believe they're investing USD and hoarding BTC.

[Arzack]

Maybe we can't predict the burst because all it takes is a coincidence: few large bears/hoarders decide it's time to cash-out in the same minute.

[mp420]

Well they're assuming they are hoarding their profit in BTC, and liquidating what's necessary to pay the bills. So in that sense I think profit margin would matter. I do believe miners aren't selling off right now, not more than they need to cover costs. I don't believe they're investing USD and hoarding BTC.

By hoarding they're forgoing the opportunity to sell, which is equivalent to spending the current market value.

[oakpacific]

Things will get worse before they get worse. Don't panic sell, if the price has peaked, you will get plenty of time to sell, just don't get too greedy and look to sell at the top.

[just1nmc]

If the price crashes any time this month, I really don't see it staying low for long (assuming no fundamental changes to bitcoin).

The amount of media coverage lately is crazy, a crash would only bring more. A lot of new people are either waiting to get money in, or they feel it's too late for them to buy. If the price drops a significant amount, it could be seen as a second chance.

We also know that bitcoin is capable of recovering from a bubble now, which probably wasn't as certain during the last one.

[VeeMiner]

it's not going to blow

[ruski]

Maybe we can't predict the burst because all it takes is a coincidence: few large bears/hoarders decide it's time to cash-out in the same minute.

It looks like there are large nets set up to catch selloffs (and buyups.) The highest volume days seem to result in screw all price movement, while the lower volume days are the ones that cause moves. Tis a strange economy.

[lebing]

Maybe we can't predict the burst because all it takes is a coincidence: few large bears/hoarders decide it's time to cash-out in the same minute.

It looks like there are large nets set up to catch selloffs (and buyups.) The highest volume days seem to result in screw all price movement, while the lower volume days are the ones that cause moves. Tis a strange economy.

Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.

[oakpacific]

When the unicorns come.

[Frost]

If the price crashes any time this month, I really don't see it staying low for long (assuming no fundamental changes to bitcoin).

The amount of media coverage lately is crazy, a crash would only bring more. A lot of new people are either waiting to get money in, or they feel it's too late for them to buy. If the price drops a significant amount, it could be seen as a second chance.

We also know that bitcoin is capable of recovering from a bubble now, which probably wasn't as certain during the last one.

I hope it will blow pretty soon because I am then ready to buy some bitcoins to play this big game too. I am too late and if the things go down hill, then I start to take care about some bitcoins to drive them up hill. You are right.  

[marra]

img18.imageshack.us/img18/5691/difftoprice.jpg

[ruski]

Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.

Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?

[lebing]

Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.

Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?

Theres nothing mythical about it. There are plenty of people around here who readily admit that they sold their coins at 13 (and other prices) anticipating a drop.

[Crazy]

Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?

Hehe, I remember that vividly. "MINERS DETERMINE THE PRICE JUST STOP SELLING" was the tune alright.

[ruski]

Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.

Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?

Theres nothing mythical about it. There are plenty of people around here who readily admit that they sold their coins at 13 (and other prices) anticipating a drop.

That's a far cry from "trying to cause a panic" and "the bulls were just too strong." That sounds like some garbage the Norks would say about America.

[lebing]

Thats because these are the days that the bears committed seppuku by trying to cause a panic, but the bulls were just too strong. Then once they were out of the way, the bulls kept on and the bears had to catch up. The cycle has repeated over and over again just making the rate of increase stronger.

Blaming the mythical bear conspiracy for keeping the price down, now... I bet you'll be blaming them and imploring everyone to STOP SELLING! IF WE JUST STOP SELLING! on the way down, too... where have I seen this before?

Theres nothing mythical about it. There are plenty of people around here who readily admit that they sold their coins at 13 (and other prices) anticipating a drop.

That's a far cry from "trying to cause a panic" and "the bulls were just too strong." That sounds like some garbage the Norks would say about America.

Anticipating a drop and trying to create a drop are nearly the same thing, just depends on your level of aggression and willingness to do market orders vs. limit orders. Maybe you are new around here and dont remember what it was like after the price fell from 16, but there were very itchy sell fingers who were burned.

[ruski]

Maybe you are new around here