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Author Topic: So when is it going to blow?  (Read 4547 times)
aqrulesms
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April 09, 2013, 04:26:23 AM
 #1

Is the price really sustainable?

Eventually everyone will get scared and dump their load on the people who come in late  Cheesy
Price will go crashing down and the manipulators will have made their multimillion profits.

I sense a price peak soon.



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April 09, 2013, 04:32:00 AM
 #2

No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
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April 09, 2013, 04:34:02 AM
 #3

No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).

Bernanke prints 85 billion a month..

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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April 09, 2013, 04:35:12 AM
 #4

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply.
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April 09, 2013, 04:36:15 AM
 #5

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply.

That you could be very wrong lol Roll Eyes

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April 09, 2013, 04:37:15 AM
 #6

That does sound like a lot but worldwide it's not much.  A few people last night bought orders over 60 coins alone, and 200-250 is pretty common still.  Sometime during the early morning EST I think, I saw my recorded charts blip with a near 1,000 coin buy.  I think it is hard for us to realize just how much money there is in the world.

That's $12K and $40-50K respectively, more or less, at this rate.  A few of those scale buys and oh, $250K is taken care of.

Now, sure, I think there does need to be a lot more usability for BTC coming up but again I just look to gold.  Is the current price holding because people are dumping millions a day into gold?  I don't know.  I think we can still grow for a very long time though.

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
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April 09, 2013, 04:37:21 AM
 #7

That you could be very wrong lol Roll Eyes

Well if I am just please post why without conjecture. I'm telling you that this money must come in from somewhere, whether it's miners, speculators, new adopters, whatever. If I'm wrong I'm very open to be enlightened, this is just my understanding.

...Is the current price holding because people are dumping millions a day into gold?  I don't know. ...
Yes, it is, because miners have costs they need to pay for, and they're going to sell their gold to pay those bills. (Disregard this if you aren't referring to the price of gold).
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April 09, 2013, 04:39:20 AM
 #8

No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).

Two problems I see with this:
1. You assumed ~65% profitability for miners.
2. You gave the amount required to sustain this in USD/day, when the real amount would be denominated in multiple currencies.

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April 09, 2013, 04:40:26 AM
 #9

Well if I am just please post why without conjecture. I'm telling you that this money must come in from somewhere, whether it's miners, speculators, new adopters, whatever. If I'm wrong I'm very open to be enlightened, this is just my understanding.

...Is the current price holding because people are dumping millions a day into gold?  I don't know. ...
Yes, it is, because miners have costs they need to pay for, and they're going to sell their gold to pay those bills. (Disregard this if you aren't referring to the price of gold).

Yeah sorry, meant to say the literal metal (XAU).  It's sitting at a "low" of $1,500+ an oz.  Who's to say BTC couldn't reach that and level off?

Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name!  Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD.  Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins.  And lead us into quadruple digits
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April 09, 2013, 04:41:47 AM
 #10

Two problems I see with this:
1. You assumed ~65% profitability for miners.
2. You gave the amount required to sustain this in USD/day, when the real amount would be denominated in multiple currencies.
I assumed 65% because that's what I've been told is currently the profit margin, which leaves roughly 35% as cost. USD is an example, price it in whatever you want it doesn't change the underlying principle. Inflation is still real and needs to be addressed with new inflow or value will go down.
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April 09, 2013, 04:42:48 AM
 #11

No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).

Uh if you think $240K isn't possible well our tiny company does about 20% of that on a slow day (and >100% of that on our best days) honestly without really trying. Yes that is cold hard fiat being used to buy BTC (not day trading buy a direct conversion of fiat for BTC).

So via TC, LLC $50K fiat inflows .... entire balance of all other exchanges, brokers, service providers, plus all OTC traders <$190K?  I doubt it.
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April 09, 2013, 04:47:01 AM
 #12

I'm not sure what you mean. Your "tiny" company nets $48,000/day?
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April 09, 2013, 04:47:58 AM
 #13

The assumption that was made about the new miner calculation which wasn't brought up, but is probably the most important, is that the miners will choose to sell all of their bitcoins. Most miners I know keep the vast majority of their mined coins within the Bitcoin economy and only sell enough to break even with electricity costs.

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April 09, 2013, 04:48:35 AM
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The assumption that was made about the new miner calculation which wasn't brought up, but is probably the most important, is that the miners will choose to sell all of their bitcoins. Most miners I know keep the vast majority of their mined coins within the Bitcoin economy and only sell enough to break even with electricity costs.
If they keep it, they're investing their USD by covering their electrical expenditures out of pocket. It's still inflow (35% as I said above).
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April 09, 2013, 04:49:31 AM
 #15

No but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.  The point is that $240K in USD (or other fiat equivelent) being injected into BTC economy is nothing, a rounding error.  If the exchange rate falls it will have nothing to do with not enough new money coming in to keep up with new BTC printing.
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April 09, 2013, 04:49:39 AM
 #16

Bitcoin's rocket engines are blowing out huge balls of fire.

http://www.bitpools.com
Pool your bitcoins with others. Vote on solutions using the Bitcoin blockchain. Keep your bitcoins in your cold storage until you find a solution you like.
Links and Reviews of useful every day places to spend bitcoins: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=943143.0
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April 09, 2013, 04:51:37 AM
 #17

No but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.  The point is that $240K in USD (or other fiat equivelent) being injected into BTC economy is nothing, a rounding error.  If the exchange rate falls it will have nothing to do with not enough new money coming in to keep up with new BTC printing.
What? You brought it up why are you now suggesting it's meaningless? Why say you net $48,000 USD when you don't? And yes, that inflationary pressure is real and gets even more real the higher the price per BTC goes.
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April 09, 2013, 04:53:38 AM
 #18

No but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.  The point is that $240K in USD (or other fiat equivelent) being injected into BTC economy is nothing, a rounding error.  If the exchange rate falls it will have nothing to do with not enough new money coming in to keep up with new BTC printing.
What? You brought it up why are you now suggesting it's meaningless? Why say you net $48,000 USD when you don't? And yes, that inflationary pressure is real and gets even more real the higher the price per BTC goes.

He said he facilitates 48k in volume, not that they profit that amount.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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April 09, 2013, 04:54:43 AM
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I don't know what he does but how does he know it's new money?
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April 09, 2013, 05:07:27 AM
 #20

No but that has nothing to do with the price of tea in China.  The point is that $240K in USD (or other fiat equivelent) being injected into BTC economy is nothing, a rounding error.  If the exchange rate falls it will have nothing to do with not enough new money coming in to keep up with new BTC printing.
What? You brought it up why are you now suggesting it's meaningless? Why say you net $48,000 USD when you don't? And yes, that inflationary pressure is real and gets even more real the higher the price per BTC goes.

He said he facilitates 48k in volume, not that they profit that amount.
Depending on your business, 48k in volume is nothing.

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