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Author Topic: So when is it going to blow?  (Read 4548 times)
afbitcoins
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April 09, 2013, 01:28:17 PM
 #41

Correction coming fairly soon I think. We're close to a line of resistance on a same trend that goes back to the 2011 bubble.
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BitcoinTate
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April 09, 2013, 01:31:20 PM
 #42


From another thread but this is how I feel about this thread!!

Now that's the kind of sentiment that prevails right before the bubble bursts. Every time.

Guess what? People been saying this since like, $15.  Deal with it.
Sure, people are saying and other people aren't listening. Euphoria has turned them deaf, blind and stupid. And very soon they will pay the "stupidity tax", especially those who went all in.

Sounds like you have paid the 'stupidity tax' not me. If Bitcoin dropped 96% today I'd be at breakeven and Litecoin has to drop 99.5% Grin


The only "stupidy tax" being paid will be those that didn't go all in and have since sold. I saw the potential and went all in at $27. So far the best decision of my life! And why do people not get that you can not compare Bitcoin to anything that has ever existed. The most similar thing you could compare it to would be the adoption rate for the Internet, Google or Facebook.

History will be written like this: First there was the Internet which gave people the freedom to share knowledge, then Google organized the internet so others could quickly find it, then Facebook connected people on an daily basis within their entire social network and finally Bitcoin freed people financially from the rule of corrupt banksters!

I can see the future 60 minutes/ Dateline interview title. "Alarming suicide rate amongst early adopters of Bitcoin that sold too early." I am seeing a lot of negative "you are all stupid" for not selling posts. Obviously people are bitter that they sold too early. Do yourself a favor and buy back in while you still can. ..... ok I am done venting now Smiley

- aka The "DigiMan"
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April 09, 2013, 01:42:50 PM
 #43

bitter. lol. I am already no lose. If it goes to the moon I still have some, if it crashes to zero I am already thousands of dollars up.

Understanding risk is key to financial health. Right now you seem to think "ALL IN !!!1111one" is viable strategy. Good luck.

Bitter. lol.

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April 09, 2013, 01:43:50 PM
 #44

bitter. lol. I am already no lose. If it goes to the moon I still have some, if it crashes to zero I am already thousands of dollars up.

Understanding risk is key to financial health. Right now you seem to think "ALL IN !!!1111one" is viable strategy. Good luck.

Bitter. lol.

+1

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
Luno
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April 09, 2013, 01:45:50 PM
 #45

Patriot missiles were deployed around Tokyo today, so an international coordinated military operation will blow Gox if the bubble doesn't burst by itself!


 
 
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sgbett
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April 09, 2013, 01:56:35 PM
 #46

Approaching my next sell order at $240, part of me wants to pull it because it might go higher.

THEN I PUNCH MYSELF IN THE FACE FOR BEING STUPID

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April 09, 2013, 11:36:53 PM
 #47

No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).
140 000 $ is what mtgox has made today with that 0.6% fee. (23m$ volume)

so it's even less possible,,, it would need 242k$ + 140k$ ... /sarcasm/
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April 09, 2013, 11:52:11 PM
 #48

No it's not sustainable. I believe we would need to see a minimum of around $242000 USD/day of new money to maintain $192 USD/BTC (assuming ~65% profit for miners and 3600 BTC minted/day).

Out of curiosity, can you share how you got to this number? Not trolling or criticising, to the contrary I'm genuinely interested in knowing more about this.
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April 09, 2013, 11:56:44 PM
 #49

3600 BTC are currently minted every day. Hardware and electrical costs need to be paid, so a portion of that 3600 will be introduced into the market and sold at whatever they can get so they can pay their bills. If we assumed 50% of those 3600 were to be sold off, right now selling 1800 at the highest bids would bring the value to around $225/BTC. To keep it at $230.80/coin, $415,440 in new money/value would need to enter the market.

140 000 $ is what mtgox has made today with that 0.6% fee. (23m$ volume)

so it's even less possible,,, it would need 242k$ + 140k$ ... /sarcasm/
Edit: Sorry misread your post. Not sure why you're being sarcastic I believe that's a valid concern.
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April 10, 2013, 04:33:49 AM
 #50

3600 BTC are currently minted every day. Hardware and electrical costs need to be paid, so a portion of that 3600 will be introduced into the market and sold at whatever they can get so they can pay their bills. If we assumed 50% of those 3600 were to be sold off, right now selling 1800 at the highest bids would bring the value to around $225/BTC. To keep it at $230.80/coin, $415,440 in new money/value would need to enter the market.

140 000 $ is what mtgox has made today with that 0.6% fee. (23m$ volume)

so it's even less possible,,, it would need 242k$ + 140k$ ... /sarcasm/
Edit: Sorry misread your post. Not sure why you're being sarcastic I believe that's a valid concern.
Why sarcastic ? because miners are hoarding at the tune of ~90% and new money comming in is many million per days, not all of those 24 million $ in trade are pure inter exchange trade,,, at least 50% of it is new money, yes that's a number between 250 000$ and 12 000 000$
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April 10, 2013, 05:07:41 AM
 #51

Why sarcastic ? because miners are hoarding at the tune of ~90% and new money comming in is many million per days, not all of those 24 million $ in trade are pure inter exchange trade,,, at least 50% of it is new money, yes that's a number between 250 000$ and 12 000 000$
Yes if they are hoarding they are part of the new money. But they still have bills to pay, so they can only be "new money" for as long as they have some outside source of income to pay the bills generated by mining.

In terms of you suggesting 50% of 24 million in volume is new money, how do you know this to be true?
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April 10, 2013, 05:42:54 AM
 #52

Why sarcastic ? because miners are hoarding at the tune of ~90% and new money comming in is many million per days, not all of those 24 million $ in trade are pure inter exchange trade,,, at least 50% of it is new money, yes that's a number between 250 000$ and 12 000 000$
Yes if they are hoarding they are part of the new money. But they still have bills to pay, so they can only be "new money" for as long as they have some outside source of income to pay the bills generated by mining.

In terms of you suggesting 50% of 24 million in volume is new money, how do you know this to be true?

On that 50% calculations can be made taking into account the line of 10000+ people waiting AML verification, the size of the spread time the number of cycles,

Any trade made within a 2.30$ range is a loosing one.

I haven't really made any real calculation but I would bet my number of ~10m$ for 1000 news bitcoins are closer to reality than the 230 000 for 2350 bitcoins (65%) I was replying to.
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April 10, 2013, 06:03:21 AM
 #53

If we assumed 50% of those 3600 were to be sold off, right now selling 1800 at the highest bids would bring the value to around $225/BTC. To keep

Where did you get that number 50%? I suggest 2.71828 %, a very nice number, you are free to use it in your calculations.
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April 10, 2013, 07:05:56 AM
 #54

I'll repeat: Hoarded vs. sold does not matter from opportunity cost perspective, and any other perspective is misguided.

Frankly, I think the (BTC monetary) inflation rate is so low compared to all other factors that it does not really influence the price. It's only about 20% yearly.
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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April 23, 2013, 09:44:36 PM
 #55

Things will get worse before they get worse. Don't panic sell, if the price has peaked, you will get plenty of time to sell, just don't get too greedy and look to sell at the top.

And, did you have plenty of time at the top? Wink
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April 23, 2013, 09:58:13 PM
 #56

This current rally is based on very small volumes. The trend seems to be for low volume rallies and high volume crashes. I can't really make head nor tail of it.

We can't ignore the usual speculative rise, crash, rise, big crash format that tends to play out.
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April 23, 2013, 10:07:39 PM
 #57

I'm not sure why people keep saying the volume is so low. Is it not at similar levels to March?
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April 25, 2013, 01:12:20 AM
 #58

I'll repeat: Hoarded vs. sold does not matter from opportunity cost perspective, and any other perspective is misguided.

Frankly, I think the (BTC monetary) inflation rate is so low compared to all other factors that it does not really influence the price. It's only about 20% yearly.

It influences it greatly because of the fact that a large part of it (50%) must pass trough exchanges.

It might seem low because we are still close to the top of the bubble, so your perceptions are distorted.



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April 25, 2013, 03:37:32 PM
 #59

Here in Canada, Virtex does have low volume today.  For example, if you want to sell, the price is 157$, but if you want to sell 5BTC, it goes down to 149$, and there's pretty much nothing until 145$... http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/virtexCAD.html

So, it's not incentive to buy at high price.  If it start "crashing", then you're stuck watching the price fall or lose a lot selling.

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April 25, 2013, 03:48:57 PM
 #60

It will blow this week.
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