280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?)

[Atruk]

2)  generated the btc address & I msg'd to mrb privately.  As I understand it the system is very secure and we could post this btc address publicly and see when both of us send coins to it, there will be 20 total in it, and community can watch the winner scoop the pot.   I want smarter technical users that I trust to tell me it's OK first before doing this.
3)  casascius if all this goes as it should this is an awesome cryptographic solution to a common community issue:  we want to bet each other with as little outside trust as possible.  Also this makes appointing and arbiter before the bet necessary, another good practice in wagering.

I'm not an expert, but I've been following the development of these multisignature escrow systems like the big C offered you and this looks pretty tight, to my knowledge it would be ok to post the generated address. That's probably the only way to test what might be the most interesting bet here, that the escrow system works and no fourth party yoinks the coins.

I like how this is two wagers in one. The first between you two on the ASICs and the second on perhaps more interesting bet on the escrow solution.

[1714914010]

1714914010

[1714914010]

1714914010

[mrb]

Micon: I haven't had time to set up Mono to run Casascius, I will try to do this tomorrow.

It sounds here like you're suggesting that 6 plus 3 is 10...

Actually I meant to add "plus one reporting on the Mini Rig SC".

[Micon]

Micon: I haven't had time to set up Mono to run Casascius, I will try to do this tomorrow.

It sounds here like you're suggesting that 6 plus 3 is 10...

Actually I meant to add "plus one reporting on the Mini Rig SC".

no problem, we're both gentlemen, and we have a 10 coin bet as of now.  we'll both hit the hash soon.  I'm locked and loaded, just making sure you generate the same one before i fire 10 coins out into wherever.

it's pretty easy once you download and install / pretty str8 forward.  as long as your end generates the same BTC address we are good.   

[SgtSpike]

Micon, I'll bet 20 BTC 1:1 that BFL delivers a working ASIC product to multiple end customers (i.e., people who are able to post pictures or other proof of their ASICs running) by the end of 2013.

[casascius]

Micon, I'll bet 20 BTC 1:1 that BFL delivers a working ASIC product to multiple end customers (i.e., people who are able to post pictures or other proof of their ASICs running) by the end of 2013.

Generated another escrow invitation code pair and sent it privately to each of you just in case this offer comes to fruition.

Also just thought I'd make clear there is no security risk with respect to the escrow in sharing the bitcoin address, at least, nothing any different than sharing any other bitcoin address.

[CashGamer]

Micon, I'll bet 20 BTC 1:1 that BFL delivers a working ASIC product to multiple end customers (i.e., people who are able to post pictures or other proof of their ASICs running) by the end of 2013.

arent the terms of this vague?

like couldnt they ship a product that has an output thats only like 1% of their estimates and wouldnt this satisfy the bet as a win for you?

[Micon]

Micon, I'll bet 20 BTC 1:1 that BFL delivers a working ASIC product to multiple end customers (i.e., people who are able to post pictures or other proof of their ASICs running) by the end of 2013.

Let's just use the same thing I'm betting on with mrb:


Statement

Butterfly Labs ASIC is real and will achieve 350+ Mhash/Joule by June 30, 2013

Details

At least one ASIC-based Butterfly Labs product will demonstrate 350 Mhash/Joule or more, at stock frequency/voltage, at room temperature, for a sustained period of time of at least 60 minutes, with appropriate current-measuring equipment on the device's power input(s). Power consumption shall be measured by adding up current from all the device's DC inputs (12V jack, USB cable, etc.) It will not be measured "at the wall". The purpose of this bet is to avoid wildly varying efficiencies of power adapters and computer hosts. This bet applies to all ASIC-based products that Butterfly Labs will deliver to the general public. This includes the "SuperComputer" family (Jalapeno, Single SC, Mini Rig SC), as well as possibly any unannounced product that the company will be shipping by June 30, 2013.

The legitimacy of the ASIC-based Butterfly Labs product(s) will be established as follow: the equipment must be reported to have been received by 10+ good standing forum members, of which:
- 3 must have each personally measured the Mhash/Joule of the devices
- the other 7 may not have necessarily measured the Mhash/Joule, but must have provided reports of having received working devices that seem to validate the existence and plausibility of the devices belonging to the above 3

These 10 good standing forum members do not necessarily need to report on the same product (eg. 10 Single SC). It may be a mix of products (eg. 6 reporting on Jalapeno units, plus 3 reporting on Single SC units).

Examples

This statement is true if, for example, the Single SC achieves 60 Ghash/s at 171 Watt or less (60000/171 = 351 Mhash/Joule) as measured with a clamp meter on its 12V DC input and 5V (USB) input.

This statement is false if all Butterfly Labs products fail to achieve 350 Mhash/Joule, or if Butterfly Labs fails to deliver any product at all.

Positions

Micon disagrees with the statement.
SgtSpike agrees with the statement.

[tbcoin]

so convinced that this is a scam and put all those conditions?

[SgtSpike]

No Micon, I do not want to make the same bet you and MRB made.  That bet is also based on whether they meet specific MH/Joule requirements, which I do not want to bet on.  I want to bet on them delivering an ASIC device that works (creates valid hashes for the Bitcoin network) by the end of 2013, regardless of speed or power usage to at least two forum members that prove they are running (video or pictures or ??).

If you believe they aren't going to deliver (which is what you keep stating over and over again), you shouldn't have any problem with this.

[darkmule]

No Micon, I do not want to make the same bet you and MRB made.  That bet is also based on whether they meet specific MH/Joule requirements, which I do not want to bet on.  I want to bet on them delivering an ASIC device that works (creates valid hashes for the Bitcoin network) by the end of 2013, regardless of speed or power usage to at least two forum members that prove they are running (video or pictures or ??).

If you believe they aren't going to deliver (which is what you keep stating over and over again), you shouldn't have any problem with this.

Yes, but you're offering a bullshit bet where if they delivered something that operated at 1% of what they claim, to even two people, you still win.  You're basically rigging the bet in your favor.  It could consume the entire output of the Hoover Dam and take five years to generate a block and you'd still win.

[Micon]

No Micon, I do not want to make the same bet you and MRB made.  That bet is also based on whether they meet specific MH/Joule requirements, which I do not want to bet on.  I want to bet on them delivering an ASIC device that works (creates valid hashes for the Bitcoin network) by the end of 2013, regardless of speed or power usage to at least two forum members that prove they are running (video or pictures or ??).

If you believe they aren't going to deliver (which is what you keep stating over and over again), you shouldn't have any problem with this.

When making a wager, both sides must agree.  If you look at mrb's and my discussion, a standard practice is to suggest terms, then refine on both sides until both parties agree.

To have a 20 coin bet with me I would like:

-- statement of a certain Mhash/Joule that proves that this BFL ASIC is a significant step up from the current top miners - that is the point of ASIC - to hash the proof-of-work problem much faster and more energy efficient than current FPGAs, as I understand it the current top dog - they claim ~ 20x-30x as fast right?  current FPGA top metrics around 25 Mhash/Joule?    Let's find a number you and I are both comfortable with it - as your statement reads, BFL could ship you some thumbdrive that creates 1 valid hash using your CPU and you would win the bet.

Also there is no need for taunting - I won't say to you "why won't you bet me at same terms if you are so sure BFL will ship an ASIC based on specs they describe?" - I will simply go back and forth and list out the terms that would make me accept the wager.

What about a statement such as 10x shipments at 5x current top Mhash/Joule ratings?   And excuse the newb-ness to mining, but what is top Mhash/J ATM?   it is FPGA cards?  

[Micon]

If anyone would still like to wager on the legitimacy of BFL, I would really like to hit the hash on C's system and see how this works.

I'm not calling out mrb or anything - he is likely very busy - seems like this thread wouldn't be at the top of his to-do list each day - and it looks like SgtSpike wanted a bet that heavily favored him and lost interest. 

I am more excited to use the escrow system than anything.

[dooglus]

If anyone would still like to wager on the legitimacy of BFL, I would really like to hit the hash on C's system and see how this works.

I'm not calling out mrb or anything - he is likely very busy - seems like this thread wouldn't be at the top of his to-do list each day - and it looks like SgtSpike wanted a bet that heavily favored him and lost interest. 

I am more excited to use the escrow system than anything.

I would like to try out the escrow system too, but having watched the video you posted of Josh giving you a quarter to 'buy a clue' as soon as you approached him I don't have a lot of faith in BFL.

[SgtSpike]

No Micon, I do not want to make the same bet you and MRB made.  That bet is also based on whether they meet specific MH/Joule requirements, which I do not want to bet on.  I want to bet on them delivering an ASIC device that works (creates valid hashes for the Bitcoin network) by the end of 2013, regardless of speed or power usage to at least two forum members that prove they are running (video or pictures or ??).

If you believe they aren't going to deliver (which is what you keep stating over and over again), you shouldn't have any problem with this.

When making a wager, both sides must agree.  If you look at mrb's and my discussion, a standard practice is to suggest terms, then refine on both sides until both parties agree.

To have a 20 coin bet with me I would like:

-- statement of a certain Mhash/Joule that proves that this BFL ASIC is a significant step up from the current top miners - that is the point of ASIC - to hash the proof-of-work problem much faster and more energy efficient than current FPGAs, as I understand it the current top dog - they claim ~ 20x-30x as fast right?  current FPGA top metrics around 25 Mhash/Joule?    Let's find a number you and I are both comfortable with it - as your statement reads, BFL could ship you some thumbdrive that creates 1 valid hash using your CPU and you would win the bet.

Also there is no need for taunting - I won't say to you "why won't you bet me at same terms if you are so sure BFL will ship an ASIC based on specs they describe?" - I will simply go back and forth and list out the terms that would make me accept the wager.

What about a statement such as 10x shipments at 5x current top Mhash/Joule ratings?   And excuse the newb-ness to mining, but what is top Mhash/J ATM?   it is FPGA cards?

Fair enough - I shall taunt no more.

I'll bet that BFL will put out at least as efficient as Avalon's advertised specs.  So that's 400w @ 60GH/s.  Is that agreeable?  It is a vast improvement over even FPGA's, where 60 GH/s would consume almost 6,000w.

I'd rather not go as high as 10 end customers, simply because it might be difficult to find 10 individuals willing to post proof of ASIC delivery.  I'm not sure that there's even 10 different people who have posted pictures of FPGA's.

So then, my new bet proposal is this:

I'll bet 20 BTC that BFL will ship out an ASIC miner capable of at least 150MH/s per watt to at least 3 end customers by the end of 2013.

[casascius]

If anyone would still like to wager on the legitimacy of BFL, I would really like to hit the hash on C's system and see how this works.

I'm not calling out mrb or anything - he is likely very busy - seems like this thread wouldn't be at the top of his to-do list each day - and it looks like SgtSpike wanted a bet that heavily favored him and lost interest.  

I am more excited to use the escrow system than anything.

Just as a heads up for everyone's benefit (as we discussed in e-mail), you sent me a copy of your payment invitation, which I'm not supposed to have, as not having it is what prevents me as the escrow agent from being able to access your funds.  Although having it allowed me to confirm you did everything correctly (I was able to compute the private key for the address you generated), and although I'm sure you know I'm not going to run with 10 BTC, assuming we want to demonstrate this system in all its glory, it's best if I escrow funds that I can't touch.

So... since nobody has paid the address you generated, you can still use the same escrow invitation codes... just create a new payment invitation with them, which will result in the creation of a completely new address.

The payment invitation that was disclosed to me is the one that results in an address that starts with 1MmwAtYG, so this address should not be used.

[Micon]

No Micon, I do not want to make the same bet you and MRB made.  That bet is also based on whether they meet specific MH/Joule requirements, which I do not want to bet on.  I want to bet on them delivering an ASIC device that works (creates valid hashes for the Bitcoin network) by the end of 2013, regardless of speed or power usage to at least two forum members that prove they are running (video or pictures or ??).

If you believe they aren't going to deliver (which is what you keep stating over and over again), you shouldn't have any problem with this.

When making a wager, both sides must agree.  If you look at mrb's and my discussion, a standard practice is to suggest terms, then refine on both sides until both parties agree.

To have a 20 coin bet with me I would like:

-- statement of a certain Mhash/Joule that proves that this BFL ASIC is a significant step up from the current top miners - that is the point of ASIC - to hash the proof-of-work problem much faster and more energy efficient than current FPGAs, as I understand it the current top dog - they claim ~ 20x-30x as fast right?  current FPGA top metrics around 25 Mhash/Joule?    Let's find a number you and I are both comfortable with it - as your statement reads, BFL could ship you some thumbdrive that creates 1 valid hash using your CPU and you would win the bet.

Also there is no need for taunting - I won't say to you "why won't you bet me at same terms if you are so sure BFL will ship an ASIC based on specs they describe?" - I will simply go back and forth and list out the terms that would make me accept the wager.

What about a statement such as 10x shipments at 5x current top Mhash/Joule ratings?   And excuse the newb-ness to mining, but what is top Mhash/J ATM?   it is FPGA cards?

Fair enough - I shall taunt no more.

I'll bet that BFL will put out at least as efficient as Avalon's advertised specs.  So that's 400w @ 60GH/s.  Is that agreeable?  It is a vast improvement over even FPGA's, where 60 GH/s would consume almost 6,000w.

I'd rather not go as high as 10 end customers, simply because it might be difficult to find 10 individuals willing to post proof of ASIC delivery.  I'm not sure that there's even 10 different people who have posted pictures of FPGA's.

So then, my new bet proposal is this:

I'll bet 20 BTC that BFL will ship out an ASIC miner capable of at least 150MH/s per watt to at least 3 end customers by the end of 2013.

You have a bet if you make it by 7/1/2013 - they said they ship in Feb. and I don't want to wait all year for this bet to settle.  Those 40 coins could be worth $10k by then and I may need a WSOP main even buy in

  I feel 7/1 is more than fair given the current timeframe directly from BFL, it keeps everything nice and clean for me, and even allows you months and months of further delays past their posted timeframe.  If BFL is real, this seems like an easy win for you under these terms.

[mrb]

Ok, I installed Mono (and libmono-system-windows-forms4.0-cil which is needed to run casascius's app), Micon sent me the payment invitation code, and I used the Be a Payer tab to generate the same address as Micon: 1MmwAtYGs3ZGEtE8VKQFzcKufLXnFZSNyD ... so in theory I could pay that. But Micon, I would prefer not giving casascius the payment invitation, so please regenerate a new one.

Casascius: when clicking the Done button to generate the Bitcoin addr, the app throws an ugly warning which doesn't make sense to me:

The Payment Invitation Code appears to have been generated from the same Escrow Invitation Code you entered, and not its mate. You might be verifying a Payment Invitation you produced yourself, rather than one produced by your trading partner.

I did not produce the payment invitation myself, Micon did!

[Micon]

Ok, I installed Mono (and libmono-system-windows-forms4.0-cil which is needed to run casascius's app), Micon sent me the payment invitation code, and I used the Be a Payer tab to generate the same address as Micon: 1MmwAtYGs3ZGEtE8VKQFzcKufLXnFZSNyD ... so in theory I could pay that. But Micon, I would prefer not giving casascius the payment invitation, so please regenerate a new one.

Casascius: when clicking the Done button to generate the Bitcoin addr, the app throws an ugly warning which doesn't make sense to me:

The Payment Invitation Code appears to have been generated from the same Escrow Invitation Code you entered, and not its mate. You might be verifying a Payment Invitation you produced yourself, rather than one produced by your trading partner.

I did not produce the payment invitation myself, Micon did!

firing now, using C's same escrow invite code to generate a new something I will Pm to you shortly

[Micon]

1Btxe5E8E4jCWfDhQMr683sVYnLgNLbA9z

that is hash for this bet.  We both got it with our separate codes.

sending 10 coins to it now / hope this shit works.

[mrb]

I sent my 10 BTC as well!