Mark Oates
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April 11, 2013, 12:32:45 AM |
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Funny. These types of price swings feel much more like the Bitcoin I'm used to. Why is everybody freaking out? I'm more relieved at this recent development because it means we're back on some degree of sanity. A bubble needs a correction! People who lost tons of money are the same types of people who lost tons of money last time.
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evolve
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April 11, 2013, 12:35:13 AM |
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People who lost tons of money are the same types of people who lost tons of money last time.
Yeah, the permabulls who refused to cash out and lock in profits.
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Crazy
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April 11, 2013, 12:37:30 AM |
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Amazing how a few bitcoin millionaires who felt the need to hold probably became bitcoin thousandaires in a few hours.
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Elon Krusky
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Elwar (OP)
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Viva Ut Vivas
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April 11, 2013, 12:39:01 AM |
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Funny. These types of price swings feel much more like the Bitcoin I'm used to. Why is everybody freaking out? I'm more relieved at this recent development because it means we're back on some degree of sanity. A bubble needs a correction! People who lost tons of money are the same types of people who lost tons of money last time. I cannot imagine who would be worried about "losing tons of money". The price is where it was two days ago. Did someone put in an order for a new yacht yesterday who is now pissed?
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First seastead company actually selling sea homes: Ocean Builders https://ocean.builders Of course we accept bitcoin.
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shamntalk
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BTC
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April 11, 2013, 12:46:23 AM |
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Until those "suckers" turn into wise people that learn how to play "our game" Seriously these post's make me laugh. Is this your first high risk investment? if so it explains everything. Whether it's his first, or it's millionth high risk trade is irrelevant. What's relevant is that BTC - while a solid alternative payment mechanism - simply has too many 'confidence' issues to sustain the current 'market cap'. 1) low merchant adoption. Anyone who works in transactional systems will tell you major retailers lag too much behind tech to turn around and start accepting btc at the rate required to sustain the valuation. Remember NFC, paying for stuff with your phone, etc? That stuff has been out for a decade. Did you use your phone to buy that meal you ate this PM? No, and there's a very good reason for that. 2) exchanges are weak technologically. MTGox in particular has made no effort in communicating through out of band channels such as twitter. They aren't trying to panic people either - they just don't 'get' the web scale game. They will, however, but in time. Again, not fast enough to sustain the current valuation. 3) too much of the new money is people looking to make a quick buck, who by their own admission do not understand the tech. Kaiser, the poster boy for bitcoin hype (and don't give me wrong I usually like him), posted today on twitter '#keepmining. As if coins were produced at a rate variable on how many people mine. They just don't get it. Sprinkle media frenzy on top and you'll understand why people have little confidence in the valuation (but at the same time, like me, could very much still be in love with the platform itself). I also don't doubt that you have far more experience trading than people like me have. What you lost though is perspective. When you look at today's 'dip', you think nothing of it. A down exchange mildly irritates you. Why? Because you are a seasoned vet who knows how to hold, and accept losses are part of the 'game'. What you don't realize is that 99% of the newbs in that Mtgox queue have been terrified today. They won't be back, and they won't bring their mates anymore. There could be 4 or 5 of these new batches. But over time, high valuation won't be sustainable anymore.
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proudhon
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April 11, 2013, 12:48:12 AM |
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Until those "suckers" turn into wise people that learn how to play "our game" Seriously these post's make me laugh. Is this your first high risk investment? if so it explains everything. Whether it's his first, or it's millionth high risk trade is irrelevant. What's relevant is that BTC - while a solid alternative payment mechanism - simply has too many 'confidence' issues to sustain the current 'market cap'. 1) low merchant adoption. Anyone who works in transactional systems will tell you major retailers lag too much behind tech to turn around and start accepting btc at the rate required to sustain the valuation. Remember NFC, paying for stuff with your phone, etc? That stuff has been out for a decade. Did you use your phone to buy that meal you ate this PM? No, and there's a very good reason for that. 2) exchanges are weak technologically. MTGox in particular has made no effort in communicating through out of band channels such as twitter. They aren't trying to panic people either - they just don't 'get' the web scale game. They will, however, but in time. Again, not fast enough to sustain the current valuation. 3) too much of the new money is people looking to make a quick buck, who by their own admission do not understand the tech. Kaiser, the poster boy for bitcoin hype (and don't give me wrong I usually like him), posted today on twitter '#keepmining. As if coins were produced at a rate variable on how many people mine. They just don't get it.Sprinkle media frenzy on top and you'll understand why people have little confidence in the valuation (but at the same time, like me, could very much still be in love with the platform itself). I also don't doubt that you have far more experience trading than people like me have. What you lost though is perspective. When you look at today's 'dip', you think nothing of it. A down exchange mildly irritates you. Why? Because you are a seasoned vet who knows how to hold, and accept losses are part of the 'game'. What you don't realize is that 99% of the newbs in that Mtgox queue have been terrified today. They won't be back, and they won't bring their mates anymore. There could be 4 or 5 of these new batches. But over time, high valuation won't be sustainable anymore. +1
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Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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Zangelbert Bingledack
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April 11, 2013, 01:44:15 AM |
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Boo hoo. Worst case on all of the above is that we just go back to regular old vanilla EXPONENTIAL GROWTH with market cap doubling every five weeks.
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proudhon
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April 11, 2013, 01:49:09 AM |
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Boo hoo. Worst case on all of the above is that we just go back to regular old vanilla EXPONENTIAL GROWTH with market cap doubling every five weeks.
There are much worse and far more likely scenarios than that.
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Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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prespendwindfall
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April 11, 2013, 01:50:05 AM |
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I personally don't care that Bitcoin is a bubble that is going to burst. I am late to the game and I know that. I am taking my chances. But I have no problem with losing my small investment and making the early adopters win out or even the smarter traders than me get my money. The higher the bubble goes, the more serious the pop, the more notoriety Bitcoin gets. Plus this Bitcoin is awesome and will just keep going anyway. Even if it dies eventually, there are so many others standing by.
I like the cause and by putting money in, win or lose, I am supporting a cause and the people involved.
I would have never expected this to go from one penny to $266 bucks and that it would attract the kind of attention it did. This is some crazy shit and I am glad to just say I was involved before ANYONE else I know.
As far as this 'flash crash' or whatever, I didn't lose much money on it, even though I bought in at the height of the bubble. I wouldn't be surprised if the true believers and the speculators just come back stronger. I like the idea of a bubble bursting and the unpredictability and inevitable nature of this. The fact that hackers did a Denial of Service Attack (?), just makes this a better story that CNN, Fox and CNBC can say: "Told ya so, it's a bubble, a scam and dangerous". But a true believer and a speculator are crazy risk takers. We're not gonna let a bunch of hackers ruin our party and make us walk away from a kick ass bubble who knows how awesome it could have gotten. I would rather lose my money, then know the hackers turned me into a pussy and letting them make me cry and walk away. Get back in boys and push this thing until the wheels come off. That's what I'm gonna do. I don't care if I lose. I am here for a cause, not just to make a few extra one dollar bills.
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bitcon
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April 11, 2013, 01:56:49 AM |
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the "crash" is over people. if you didnt have your useless fiat money ready on exchanges, then you've lost out. back to 200's by tomorrow.
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proudhon
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April 11, 2013, 02:00:36 AM |
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the "crash" is over people. if you didnt have your useless fiat money ready on exchanges, then you've lost out. back to 200's by tomorrow.
I doubt that. There's some 12k BTCs to 200 right now. By tomorrow that will have increased quite a bit. By next week, there'll be enough resistance built up to 200 that it'll look impossible to get through.
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Bitcoin Fact: the price of bitcoin will not be greater than $70k for more than 25 consecutive days at any point in the rest of recorded human history.
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BitcoinAshley
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April 11, 2013, 02:23:07 AM |
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how a few bitcoin millionaires who felt the need to hold probably became bitcoin thousandaires in a few hours. ... Wait, so are you retarded at math, or just retarded? Price crashed 50% If I have $500 million worth of bitcoins, now I have $250 million bitcoins. But chances are I invested $10,000 a couple years ago, so I never actually "lost" money - and it'll be a long while before I'm anywhere close to being a "thousandaire". The bitcoin millionaires with less than 2 mil became temporary thousandaires but still did not lose money unless they started investing VERY recently as in, bought their bitcoins in the last week. And all this talk about "newbies getting burned" - Sure, there are plenty of people who bought their first coins at $250+ a day ago only to see it back down to $160-ish this evening. Then in a week or shorter they'll see their $250 again. But how many people was that? Y'all make it seem like it's a huge percentage of newcomers that "got burned" at gox but it was only the people who (1) bought in the past 2-3 days, and (2) didn't buy any before that or had a very high DCA to begin with. That number of "newbies who got burned" is looking a bit smaller now... The people who lost money were mainly existing weak-handed panic sellers who don't understand the fundamentals. Sucks for them, but that's what you get yourself into with a high-risk investment. The fundamentals haven't changed. But keep making your stereotypes about "evil speculators and hoarders" and pretending you know what other people do with their bitcoins - based on what, your personal perception? Y'all FUDders are starting to sound like the Occupy Wall St type - go take a shower and forget about bitcoins for a while until you're ready to accept the volatility of a high-risk investment without whining like a crybaby when someone "gets burned" for "tons of money". I bought coins at 200+ but my DCA is still below $30 and I'm sitting on record profits; a 50% correction doesn't mean shit to me. I didn't sell anything and I still didn't "get burned." What's the difference between "lots of money" and "lots of money" With the current level of merchant adoption and media attention, I'm not seeing single digit predictions as being anything other than butthurt bear propaganda. Keep dreaming. It sucks that people lost money but that's what happens in a market with such low liquidity and such high demand.
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Piper67
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April 11, 2013, 02:28:26 AM |
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the "crash" is over people. if you didnt have your useless fiat money ready on exchanges, then you've lost out. back to 200's by tomorrow.
I doubt that. There's some 12k BTCs to 200 right now. By tomorrow that will have increased quite a bit. By next week, there'll be enough resistance built up to 200 that it'll look impossible to get through. Oh noes! You mean we've already seen the all time high, Proudhon? Say it ain't so... Say it ain't so.
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Crypt_Current
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April 11, 2013, 02:56:21 AM |
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3) too much of the new money is people looking to make a quick buck, who by their own admission do not understand the tech. Kaiser, the poster boy for bitcoin hype (and don't give me wrong I usually like him), posted today on twitter '#keepmining. As if coins were produced at a rate variable on how many people mine. They just don't get it.
This could be an incorrect interpretation. As a small-size miner, I know the difficulty has sharply risen in the last few months, yet I devote a certain set amount of time to maintaining the hardware that I have, and it is difficult to whittle that time down because the living situation I find myself in makes it uniquely difficult to maintain crypto-mining infrastructure. I have at times thought about using that time to do other things, but I have consistently chosen to stay the course, because I sincerely believe in the concept of cryptocurrency harder than I've believed in anything. I think that may be the sort of understanding that Kaiser is pointing toward here.
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Manticore
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April 11, 2013, 03:12:21 AM |
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I understand the seductive ethos behind the 'let's initially treat this like a commodity and pump to stratosphere so everyone after us can adopt as currency after we all become fabulously wealthy' mentality. It puts the cart before the horse. Valuation cannot be completely divorced from fundamentals for very long. Wanting to grow this 10x higher from the previous high valuation (2B+ to $20B+, as many have said) is not asking for success, but collapse. I guess this current rise has at least served to get more money flowing on the development side, which is good.
Everyone should be focused on reasonable and steady growth in price, adoption, implementation, and development of bitcoin and related services rather than being fixated on market price. The way Bitcoin is designed, however, means that until its worth $0 it will probably do this over and over and over.....
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essem
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April 11, 2013, 03:17:54 AM Last edit: April 11, 2013, 03:28:48 AM by essem |
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I personally don't care that Bitcoin is a bubble that is going to burst. I am late to the game and I know that. I am taking my chances. But I have no problem with losing my small investment and making the early adopters win out or even the smarter traders than me get my money. The higher the bubble goes, the more serious the pop, the more notoriety Bitcoin gets. Plus this Bitcoin is awesome and will just keep going anyway. Even if it dies eventually, there are so many others standing by.
I like the cause and by putting money in, win or lose, I am supporting a cause and the people involved.
I would have never expected this to go from one penny to $266 bucks and that it would attract the kind of attention it did. This is some crazy shit and I am glad to just say I was involved before ANYONE else I know.
As far as this 'flash crash' or whatever, I didn't lose much money on it, even though I bought in at the height of the bubble. I wouldn't be surprised if the true believers and the speculators just come back stronger. I like the idea of a bubble bursting and the unpredictability and inevitable nature of this. The fact that hackers did a Denial of Service Attack (?), just makes this a better story that CNN, Fox and CNBC can say: "Told ya so, it's a bubble, a scam and dangerous". But a true believer and a speculator are crazy risk takers. We're not gonna let a bunch of hackers ruin our party and make us walk away from a kick ass bubble who knows how awesome it could have gotten. I would rather lose my money, then know the hackers turned me into a pussy and letting them make me cry and walk away. Get back in boys and push this thing until the wheels come off. That's what I'm gonna do. I don't care if I lose. I am here for a cause, not just to make a few extra one dollar bills.
obvious troll post, I refuse to believe anyone is actually this stupid
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bitcoinBull
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rippleFanatic
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April 11, 2013, 03:21:24 AM |
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the "crash" is over people. if you didnt have your useless fiat money ready on exchanges, then you've lost out. back to 200's by tomorrow.
I doubt that. There's some 12k BTCs to 200 right now. By tomorrow that will have increased quite a bit. By next week, there'll be enough resistance built up to 200 that it'll look impossible to get through. I don't usually agree with proudhon, but I do about this. Mid-term trend is likely down. Don't get caught by a head-fake over $200. You'll have to be patient to catch the next rally from the lows, probably several months from now. I'm expecting a low around $50, though could go lower (but I'd bet my house that it won't be single digits). Look at the price history. It takes a while to recover from a mid-term correction, but it will recover.
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College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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firefop
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April 11, 2013, 03:43:10 AM |
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the "crash" is over people. if you didnt have your useless fiat money ready on exchanges, then you've lost out. back to 200's by tomorrow.
I doubt that. There's some 12k BTCs to 200 right now. By tomorrow that will have increased quite a bit. By next week, there'll be enough resistance built up to 200 that it'll look impossible to get through. I don't usually agree with proudhon, but I do about this. Mid-term trend is likely down. Don't get caught by a head-fake over $200. You'll have to be patient to catch the next rally from the lows, probably several months from now. I'm expecting a low around $50, though could go lower (but I'd bet my house that it won't be single digits). Look at the price history. It takes a while to recover from a mid-term correction, but it will recover. Have to disagree. mid-term is still up (the market kept it's parabolic shape even through this 'crash' - which means it was a reasonable correction) I'd say we'll be flirting with again before in 3 or 4 days at most.
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Wuji
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April 11, 2013, 03:44:21 AM |
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Most speculators are now either sold and gone (the winners), scared and have no clue what they are doing (the newbies), or left holding the bag and crying in their milk (the losers). I'm not sure where anyone believes all these new buyers are going to come from and push it back over $200 anytime soon. Hope is a good thing but, blind faith tends to lead to sad disappointing failure. Anyone who has experience today saw the fluctuation ($105-$266) and left for the hills. The writing was all over the wall this week with the run up from Monday till last night. Huge run up and massive volatility unseen before. I saw it last night and sold.
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Geddi
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It's the muffins that must be stopped.
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April 11, 2013, 09:09:45 AM |
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Dunno.. I have an uncontrollable urge to post this.
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