IT STILL ISN'T BACK TO "NORMAL"!

[ruski]

I should add that this graph assumes the largest pools of disposable funds are in the hands of the public, and not the institutional investors.

That has changed slightly in recent years.

[Ares]

Do you people even read the graph? In the background it says the first sell-off is at institutional investors... Sounds about where we're at. And then the crash back to the mean is after the "public" background wording. LOL if you think bitcoin is known by the public.

Except we did get institutional investors and the public does know. Where do you think the demand flooded in from? Early adopters? "Public" isn't qualified in that graph. So even a 1% exposure could lead to the bubble playing out.

We hardly tapped into institutional investors, and through that alone we can assume we're not at the public stage.

Also, the crash happens after the public phase. Are you trying to say that this is the most the public will ever know about bitcoin? If i went out and asked 100 people about bitcoin, i'd be shocked if more than 1 knew anything about them. I've also spoken with credible economists who have never even heard of it.

[giarc]

Do you people even read the graph? In the background it says the first sell-off is at institutional investors... Sounds about where we're at. And then the crash back to the mean is after the "public" background wording. LOL if you think bitcoin is known by the public.

Except we did get institutional investors and the public does know. Where do you think the demand flooded in from? Early adopters? "Public" isn't qualified in that graph. So even a 1% exposure could lead to the bubble playing out.

We hardly tapped into institutional investors, and through that alone we can assume we're not at the public stage.

Also, the crash happens after the public phase. Are you trying to say that this is the most the public will ever know about bitcoin? If i went out and asked 100 people about bitcoin, i'd be shocked if more than 1 knew anything about them. I've also spoken with credible economists who have never even heard of it.

No that's not correct, a bubble doesn't mean the end of bitcoin it means the end of this crazy run up. The public will learn about it more in the future but it is pretty public now and has been in most major respectable newspapers. I'd have thought theres more non professional investors in bitcoin atm than professional investors based on what I have seen around the forums.

[Ares]

Do you people even read the graph? In the background it says the first sell-off is at institutional investors... Sounds about where we're at. And then the crash back to the mean is after the "public" background wording. LOL if you think bitcoin is known by the public.

Except we did get institutional investors and the public does know. Where do you think the demand flooded in from? Early adopters? "Public" isn't qualified in that graph. So even a 1% exposure could lead to the bubble playing out.

We hardly tapped into institutional investors, and through that alone we can assume we're not at the public stage.

Also, the crash happens after the public phase. Are you trying to say that this is the most the public will ever know about bitcoin? If i went out and asked 100 people about bitcoin, i'd be shocked if more than 1 knew anything about them. I've also spoken with credible economists who have never even heard of it.

No that's not correct, a bubble doesn't mean the end of bitcoin it means the end of this crazy run up. The public will learn about it more in the future but it is pretty public now and has been in most major respectable newspapers. I'd have thought theres more non professional investors in bitcoin atm than professional investors based on what I have seen around the forums.

If this were the case, then why does the "public" section end before the crash? I think we can agree that the general public is far from informed on bitcoin, and the strong presence of "non-professionals" on here is because all "internet nerds" are a tiny niche that know about bitcoin and are more likely to post on forums and so you get an unrealistic representation of the whole population on here.

[carborundum]

I'm sorry but I don't se ANY indications of a "bubble" popping here. If anything, I see a technical issue that caused a panic sell-off.
The fact that SO many accounts are coming into the market only means MORE and MORE money to be added to the system.
That means bulls and speculators, but more people will speculate uptrend.
just my 2cts.

+1

We're in pre-bubble mode. The bubble will have five digits.

This week - above $200
This month - New highs
This Year - BTC >$1000

[arepo]

I'm sorry but I don't se ANY indications of a "bubble" popping here.

-===-

can you say 'overbought' ?

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

This needs a little adjustment.

Every fundamental indicator that I know of suggests that Bitcoin adoption is an exponential growth phenomenon. Anyone who disagrees please do us both a favor and STOP READING HERE and instead supply an argument why adoption isn't exponential.

Now, exponentially growing fundamentals strongly suggest that the mean trendline in the graph that the price reverts to should be exponential, not linear (on a log chart: not flat but at a fixed slope).

The log-scale chart Arepo posted just above shows that so far in 2013 the slope was fixed until the Cyprus-inspired media blitz started just a few weeks ago. Since then it has been curling upward, and I have been warning gradually more loudly that this indicates some froth being introduced to the mix with Bitcoin-clueless money piling in, as the fundamental growth has for the most part remained "merely" exponential.

So where are we now? The 2013 Exponential Trendline I mentioned above has the price at around $70 now, to reach $200 (this time solidly) by early June, $2,000 by autumn, and $10,000 by Christmas. Still silly, crazy fast growth.

We are now still floating about 2.5 times above that price, "cruising for a bruising" back down to that trendline in case of any bad news or just random jitters+goxlag.

Under this exponential interpretation of the OP chart, supposing this rebound is actually a "bull trap," if we skid down to "despair" at the end of April the desparation low should be around $30-50 (since the exponential trendline hits $100 at that time), with a mid-May return to the exponential trendline at about $130, this time soaring* higher with plenty of fundamental backing as the weak hands are really going to be shaken out.

*Slower than post-Cyprus but still crazy fast (EXPOMUTHAFUCKINENTIAL).

[wblabla4]

Everything is exactly like in the graph. According to BTC-e(gox has halted trading), we're at stage "FEAR" right now.

Updated graph with fresh values.

[jl2012]

I'm sorry but I don't se ANY indications of a "bubble" popping here.

-===-

can you say 'overbought' ?

You keep silent for a whole month and now come back with TA again?

[wblabla4]

Mark my words, mark them well. It's gonna be sub-40 at BTC-e in the next five hours.

[nicolazza]

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/843/schermata20130411alle18.png

[hubbabubbabaker]

With Gox down I feel there's a greater potential for it to grow again given that all the newbies probably haven't moved out to another exchange. Although as soon as it's up it may crash again.

[wblabla4]

We're at capitulation right now.

[rpietila]

I can pay 5-10% over for any cash in the exchanges except Gox. Sell your bitcoins now and turn the cash over to me, profit 5-10%!!

Or sell outright. I can pay bank wire any currency, gold, silver any form. PM.

[Mike Christ]

I'm no economist, but, wow, it is crazy how those graphs line up almost perfectly.

[Francesco]

We are well below the mean now, it appears. Drawing the lines, it should converge to ~120 -that is, double the price now on BitStamp.

[Wuji]

Why don't more people discuss that Cyprus was announced on March 17th when BTC was at $50.  This was when the insane push up happened.  People in Spain and Cyprus were moving money in BTC because they were freaking out.  There were quite a number of news stories that showed this.  Now that those people have sold and moved on they will not be coming back.  I expect $30-$50 BTC by tomorrow and probably some new crazy event in the next year driving up another huge bubble where I will sell off again.

Edit: The drive to $50 was getting out of hand and it was going sideways.  I suspected a downward correction at that time but was prepared to hold it.  The only thing that changed that was March 17th.  I sold at $230 on Tuesday night after the last run-up.  People keep using stock charts to predict a beta currency.  There are other factors than trend lines at work here and a lot of money is either cashed in or lost now.  Don't hold your breath waiting for $200 to come back or you might not make it there.

[Mae]

Why don't more people discuss that Cyprus was announced on March 17th when BTC was at $50.  This was when the insane push up happened.  People in Spain and Cyprus were moving money in BTC because they were freaking out.

Not true at all. I live in Spain and I have to tell you no one even knows here the BTC. The people didn't run into BTC as you suppose. From my point of view, the average spaniard would go into gold I don't think they are open minded enough to go into BTC. Any way, protecting your savings buying BTC looks like a really bad idea.. it's so experimental at this point.

By the way, Spain havent suffered any bail-in yet.

[masize]

One graph is worth a thousand words.

edit: fixed the graph showing 175$ "back to normal"

EDIT2: WE'RE AT FEAR RIGHT NOW

+1. Excellent graph!

[NikolaTesla]

Bitcoin will go into economic textbooks soon  

Yeah, as an epic failure, if some major community action is not done to make sure this never happens again.