Game theory - Any reason for Huobi/OKcoin to not manipulate the price high?

[magicmexican]

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[quake313]

This is not a "beartroll FUD, OMG U NEeD CHEAP MY CHEAP COINS" post, its a simple argument:

A) Imagine that you are running an exchange that is so big, that every other exchange is simply following what you do. The price is pretty much attached to your action.

 I think this is a reasonable claim. If you monitor the current price action, the western exchanges never lead, it was not like this in the past, there were actually serious actors, and were leading the price with china following them, and vice versa. But not anymore, now the scene is dominated by OKcoin/Huobi.

B) If A) is true, what should happen naturally is this :

A big miner, or most likely a group of miners will approach you with the deal.

What is the end game for the miners? As any investor, they want max ROI % on the investment. What is the best way to do it? To make the BTC price high and sustained.

If someone has the potential ability to control the price (OKcoin/Huobi), miners absolutely MUST try to bribe them into the manipulation(if they are know what they are doing as the investors). Its a very simple game theory move.


Now, any reason to OKcoin/Huobi to deny the deal?

Doesn't Huobi have its own mining farm?

[Ted E. Bare]

Because that's highly illegal?

[quake313]

It wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese get together to create a mining cartel to control the price of Bitcoin (or try to), like the diamond industry does.

[Bostonias]

Doesn't Huobi have its own mining farm?

Huobi does not have. BTCC has.

[Przemax]

Ive noticed some strange patterns of increasing the price on a least expected moments. Those moments where the football championships. Especially during the important matches. And even now as I wrote this. Its the time when people would rather be  drunk than trade.

The time period during the day of the rise in the price is usualy very early China, middle of the night Europe and ending the day shifts in America. It looks exactly like someone would want the least people to intervene in the market manipulation.

To make things more spicy every big rise in  a price was after some huge exchange had some serious problems with solvency. In 2016 it was a Bitfinex that had 2 major issues with their  exchanges and the rise in 2015 was followed by Bitstamp problems. Not to mention willybots rises earlier.

Maybe its not  only a manipulation, but its hugely unfair to the other market users to know to what extend the price is fake. Is it 200 or 300 usd or such.

As for me the price seems too high now for at least 100 usd. So im extremely cautious at trading  having only 10-20% of what I trade. The market is very visibly manipulated sadly. That doesnt mean the price should be at 900 usd per btc but I would at least feel more comfortable with it.

And yes. Most of the markets are fake. Thats a natural market state of afairs. And thats the rational people that make fool of themselfs in those fake markets. If you are a rational person you would have  a hard time earning the money on a bubbles.

[eddie13]

Ive noticed some strange patterns of increasing the price on a least expected moments. Those moments where the football championships. Especially during the important matches. And even now as I wrote this. Its the time when people would rather be  drunk than trade.

The time period during the day of the rise in the price is usualy very early China, middle of the night Europe and ending the day shifts in America. It looks exactly like someone would want the least people to intervene in the market manipulation.

To make things more spicy every big rise in  a price was after some huge exchange had some serious problems with solvency. In 2016 it was a Bitfinex that had 2 major issues with their  exchanges and the rise in 2015 was followed by Bitstamp problems. Not to mention willybots rises earlier.

Maybe its not  only a manipulation, but its hugely unfair to the other market users to know to what extend the price is fake. Is it 200 or 300 usd or such.

As for me the price seems too high now for at least 100 usd. So im extremely cautious at trading  having only 10-20% of what I trade. The market is very visibly manipulated sadly. That doesnt mean the price should be at 900 usd per btc but I would at least feel more comfortable with it.

And yes. Most of the markets are fake. Thats a natural market state of afairs. And thats the rational people that make fool of themselfs in those fake markets. If you are a rational person you would have  a hard time earning the money on a bubbles.

Watching very closely today the western exchanges did not do a very good job of following china..
And huobi just took my upwards margin away but I still have downwards margin, fishy..

I really don't care if they are manipulating as long as they are manipulating towards UP.. More power to em..

[European Central Bank]

Because that's highly illegal?

where? there are no laws in the west regarding crypto exchanges so there certainly won't be any in china.

[spazzdla]

Because that's highly illegal?

I don't think that is a good enough argument.  Laws don't work flawlessly.

[jonald_fyookball]

This is not a "beartroll FUD, OMG U NEeD CHEAP MY CHEAP COINS" post, its a simple argument:

A) Imagine that you are running an exchange that is so big, that every other exchange is simply following what you do. The price is pretty much attached to your action.

 I think this is a reasonable claim. If you monitor the current price action, the western exchanges never lead, it was not like this in the past, there were actually serious actors, and were leading the price with china following them, and vice versa. But not anymore, now the scene is dominated by OKcoin/Huobi.

B) If A) is true, what should happen naturally is this :

A big miner, or most likely a group of miners will approach you with the deal.

What is the end game for the miners? As any investor, they want max ROI % on the investment. What is the best way to do it? To make the BTC price high and sustained.

If someone has the potential ability to control the price (OKcoin/Huobi), miners absolutely MUST try to bribe them into the manipulation(if they are know what they are doing as the investors). Its a very simple game theory move.


Now, any reason to OKcoin/Huobi to deny the deal?

Long term price manipulation is basically impossible in any market.

Remember the good ol' Mt. Gox days?  That was a good example
of when there was one centralized place that published the price.

However, the situation is far more decentralized today.  If any
exchange tried to manipulate the price, they would have to
continue to pay for it because arbitragers would take advantage
of the situation.

If the price was too high, I would buy lower elsewhere, and
sell on the manipulating exchange, and if the price was too
low, I would buy coins on the manipulating exchange and
sell them elsewhere.

The only reason people couldn't do this with Mt. Gox is
because they couldn't get their money out! lol.

If there really was only a single exchange, it would be
easier to manipulate the price in the short term, but
would still be playing a risky game, either buying higher
or selling lower than market prices.


 

[HyphyBTC]

This started happening back when those exchanges switched to zero fees. In fact, some of the bots there will ONLY trade with themselves, meaning they cannot control the price 24/7. I also believe those exchanges are used to manipulate price. Why they do what they do and when they do it, I will not get into.

However, they are not the only ones with loads of coins, so it does not always work in their favor. Whales only move markets until a bigger whale comes along.

[Wind_FURY]

OP, deny the deal? How could they? They are there to make money, and now they are are the expense of the stupid. Also if what you say is true then this rise nothing but another bubble which I am open that it might be one. It is fun to see that Bitcoin is rising near ATH but there is always a feeling in me, asking if all this is really sustainable.

From your post, OP then the answer is no. An exit will always take place.

[Przemax]

This is not a "beartroll FUD, OMG U NEeD CHEAP MY CHEAP COINS" post, its a simple argument:

A) Imagine that you are running an exchange that is so big, that every other exchange is simply following what you do. The price is pretty much attached to your action.

 I think this is a reasonable claim. If you monitor the current price action, the western exchanges never lead, it was not like this in the past, there were actually serious actors, and were leading the price with china following them, and vice versa. But not anymore, now the scene is dominated by OKcoin/Huobi.

B) If A) is true, what should happen naturally is this :

A big miner, or most likely a group of miners will approach you with the deal.

What is the end game for the miners? As any investor, they want max ROI % on the investment. What is the best way to do it? To make the BTC price high and sustained.

If someone has the potential ability to control the price (OKcoin/Huobi), miners absolutely MUST try to bribe them into the manipulation(if they are know what they are doing as the investors). Its a very simple game theory move.


Now, any reason to OKcoin/Huobi to deny the deal?

Long term price manipulation is basically impossible in any market.

Remember the good ol' Mt. Gox days?  That was a good example
of when there was one centralized place that published the price.

However, the situation is far more decentralized today.  If any
exchange tried to manipulate the price, they would have to
continue to pay for it because arbitragers would take advantage
of the situation.

If the price was too high, I would buy lower elsewhere, and
sell on the manipulating exchange, and if the price was too
low, I would buy coins on the manipulating exchange and
sell them elsewhere.

The only reason people couldn't do this with Mt. Gox is
because they couldn't get their money out! lol.

If there really was only a single exchange, it would be
easier to manipulate the price in the short term, but
would still be playing a risky game, either buying higher
or selling lower than market prices.


 

No. I strongly disagree. If you are not chineese its very hard to gain an arbitrage on differences in chineese and foreigners exchanges if its not higher than 30 usd on a bitcoin. If that would be the other way around, if the bitcoins would be once higher and once cheape,r it would open the way to arbitrage. But its always higher. Ok you have sold your bitcoins there. What do you do with those Cny? Do you withdraw them? No you cant. You are not a chineese.

Have you ever tried to arbitrage in chineese exchanges? You had plenty of time now. Half of the year price was 30 usd or higher. Why wouldnt you arbitrage? Youve said you would. You had a chance.

Lets face the reality and stop being in denial. Chineese are far aware of their superiour position to dictate the price and noone can mess around their machinations if they have at least a bit of oil in their heads.

Btw there are too many man in their country and not enough woman. So the woman they have are extremely needy and picky. The drive to success and greed is beyond our ability to understand. Those people are terminaly sick with greed.

[jonald_fyookball]

This is not a "beartroll FUD, OMG U NEeD CHEAP MY CHEAP COINS" post, its a simple argument:

A) Imagine that you are running an exchange that is so big, that every other exchange is simply following what you do. The price is pretty much attached to your action.

 I think this is a reasonable claim. If you monitor the current price action, the western exchanges never lead, it was not like this in the past, there were actually serious actors, and were leading the price with china following them, and vice versa. But not anymore, now the scene is dominated by OKcoin/Huobi.

B) If A) is true, what should happen naturally is this :

A big miner, or most likely a group of miners will approach you with the deal.

What is the end game for the miners? As any investor, they want max ROI % on the investment. What is the best way to do it? To make the BTC price high and sustained.

If someone has the potential ability to control the price (OKcoin/Huobi), miners absolutely MUST try to bribe them into the manipulation(if they are know what they are doing as the investors). Its a very simple game theory move.


Now, any reason to OKcoin/Huobi to deny the deal?

Long term price manipulation is basically impossible in any market.

Remember the good ol' Mt. Gox days?  That was a good example
of when there was one centralized place that published the price.

However, the situation is far more decentralized today.  If any
exchange tried to manipulate the price, they would have to
continue to pay for it because arbitragers would take advantage
of the situation.

If the price was too high, I would buy lower elsewhere, and
sell on the manipulating exchange, and if the price was too
low, I would buy coins on the manipulating exchange and
sell them elsewhere.

The only reason people couldn't do this with Mt. Gox is
because they couldn't get their money out! lol.

If there really was only a single exchange, it would be
easier to manipulate the price in the short term, but
would still be playing a risky game, either buying higher
or selling lower than market prices.


 

No. I strongly disagree. If you are not chineese its very hard to gain an arbitrage on differences in chineese and foreigners exchanges if its not higher than 30 usd on a bitcoin. If that would be the other way around, if the bitcoins would be once higher and once cheape,r it would open the way to arbitrage. But its always higher. Ok you have sold your bitcoins there. What do you do with those Cny? Do you withdraw them? No you cant. You are not a chineese.

Have you ever tried to arbitrage in chineese exchanges? You had plenty of time now. Half of the year price was 30 usd or higher. Why wouldnt you arbitrage? Youve said you would. You had a chance.

Lets face the reality and stop being in denial. Chineese are far aware of their superiour position to dictate the price and noone can mess around their machinations if they have at least a bit of oil in their heads.

Btw there are too many man in their country and not enough woman. So the woman they have are extremely needy and picky. The drive to success and greed is beyond our ability to understand. Those people are terminaly sick with greed.

You are missing the point.  There will be SOMEONE who is able to arbitrage (Chinese or not) and that will cost
the exchange money when they try to manipulate the price.

[Przemax]

This is not a "beartroll FUD, OMG U NEeD CHEAP MY CHEAP COINS" post, its a simple argument:

A) Imagine that you are running an exchange that is so big, that every other exchange is simply following what you do. The price is pretty much attached to your action.

 I think this is a reasonable claim. If you monitor the current price action, the western exchanges never lead, it was not like this in the past, there were actually serious actors, and were leading the price with china following them, and vice versa. But not anymore, now the scene is dominated by OKcoin/Huobi.

B) If A) is true, what should happen naturally is this :

A big miner, or most likely a group of miners will approach you with the deal.

What is the end game for the miners? As any investor, they want max ROI % on the investment. What is the best way to do it? To make the BTC price high and sustained.

If someone has the potential ability to control the price (OKcoin/Huobi), miners absolutely MUST try to bribe them into the manipulation(if they are know what they are doing as the investors). Its a very simple game theory move.


Now, any reason to OKcoin/Huobi to deny the deal?

Long term price manipulation is basically impossible in any market.

Remember the good ol' Mt. Gox days?  That was a good example
of when there was one centralized place that published the price.

However, the situation is far more decentralized today.  If any
exchange tried to manipulate the price, they would have to
continue to pay for it because arbitragers would take advantage
of the situation.

If the price was too high, I would buy lower elsewhere, and
sell on the manipulating exchange, and if the price was too
low, I would buy coins on the manipulating exchange and
sell them elsewhere.

The only reason people couldn't do this with Mt. Gox is
because they couldn't get their money out! lol.

If there really was only a single exchange, it would be
easier to manipulate the price in the short term, but
would still be playing a risky game, either buying higher
or selling lower than market prices.


 

No. I strongly disagree. If you are not chineese its very hard to gain an arbitrage on differences in chineese and foreigners exchanges if its not higher than 30 usd on a bitcoin. If that would be the other way around, if the bitcoins would be once higher and once cheape,r it would open the way to arbitrage. But its always higher. Ok you have sold your bitcoins there. What do you do with those Cny? Do you withdraw them? No you cant. You are not a chineese.

Have you ever tried to arbitrage in chineese exchanges? You had plenty of time now. Half of the year price was 30 usd or higher. Why wouldnt you arbitrage? Youve said you would. You had a chance.

Lets face the reality and stop being in denial. Chineese are far aware of their superiour position to dictate the price and noone can mess around their machinations if they have at least a bit of oil in their heads.

Btw there are too many man in their country and not enough woman. So the woman they have are extremely needy and picky. The drive to success and greed is beyond our ability to understand. Those people are terminaly sick with greed.

You are missing the point.  There will be SOMEONE who is able to arbitrage (Chinese or not) and that will cost
the exchange money when they try to manipulate the price.

No. Im missing no point. Its you who are invested into your possition and propably lost on that completly fake rise. How can you arbitrage something when the price rise is fast and its process of arbitraging takes long time. You cant.

Chineese people have a bubble making machine. The only reason they use it so badly is paradoxicaly a greed. They get money easily and more safely longing on fast rise and shorting on fast slide before anyone else think about it.

[jonald_fyookball]

How can you arbitrage something when the price rise is fast and its process of arbitraging takes long time. You cant.
 

Sure you can can...You just sell your coins at the market when the price is artificially high. 

Listen, I'm not saying they can't make bubbles and play games with the price.
What i'm saying is LONG TERM they can't control the price.

Anyway i've made my point.  If you don’t believe me or don’t get it,
I don’t have time to try to convince you, sorry.

[d5000]

In my opinion, the scenario described here would be possible, but not easy.

Basically, the exchange that is conducting this kind of manipulation would need a really large amount of funds, and probably cooperation with other large Chinese exchanges, because otherwise a bearish market move on all other exchanges would let them go rapidly out of funds if sellers want to retire their CNY.

As the Chinese market is highly competitive and all exchanges apply a zero-trading-fees policy, I think their margins are not that thick that they could accumulate the necessary funds for that kind of manipulation - not even if miners gave them a large amount of their profits. What would happen is basically what happened to MtGox.