How will market react when MtGox reopens trade?

[Nikolaj06]

I wonder how much of a difference the change of servers will make...
Does anyone still hold bitcoins?

Well considering they are offering 0% fee for 48 hours, they must be pretty confident..

[adamstgBit]

i would expect to see UP DOWN UP DOWN UP DOWN UP DOWN UP DOWN for a while once it reopens.

clearly their will be lot of money to be made for those who have the balls to try and stablize the price, by buying when they think its low and selling when they think its high.

[ManBearPig]

Well we have an interesting situation here. The minority of BTC on other exchanges has the opportunity to set a price.

But Mt Gox can duly stick two fingers up to that as either the bears clutch at straws or the bulls set this price at a reasonable level (ie, holds $120).

All I know is, with free trades for 48 hours I will be in (and out) of the market (and in). And out.

You have to look at previous highs as support lines, in this case, anything pre-2013 is around the $30 mark.

If we close tomorrow below that then Bitcoin has some growing up to do before we get it out of the cupboard again.

I dunno, might be fun.

[rpietila]

You mean flash crash and then immediately back to +$200? Or you are saying that those who sold at 160btc will be queing up to buy like crazy at $123.40 (Gox last price)?

Why would anyone queue to buy at $123.40 when they can buy at $88 right now on another exchange?

No they CANNOT.   Explain to me how I can buy 10,000 USD of bitcoin RIGHT NOW on any other exchange?  You would have to have an account open with them AND have USD sitting in that account.

If you know me, you can. You will have to send me 100% of the amount in BTC as a guarantee. I can buy in any exchange as I have money in all of them. For a fee, of course. The ones doing this will make a killing tomorrow as they did today, irrespective of what happens to the price.

I don't believe it will go sub-$20. I am not the only arbitrageur out there. Everybody wants bitcoins. If you don't believe me, sell yours to me.

[wojtek]

when they will resume trading site soon will lag due to cumulated traffic and go offline.

what about the price? seems you forgot btc price is mostly base on speculation that more and more people will want them. when price for growing like crazy indeed many wanted to go in, but not anymore. media will soon publish stories about people who lost money on it. no new people will come, and old people won't want to hold their coins or buy more when they will be losing value every day. big crash in inevitable.

more trouble will be coming in following days. people who were holding btc is one thing, but think also about people who hold BFL preorder.

[Rampion]

when they will resume trading site soon will lag due to cumulated traffic and go offline.

what about the price? seems you forgot btc price is mostly base on speculation that more and more people will want them. when price for growing like crazy indeed many wanted to go in, but not anymore. media will soon publish stories about people who lost money on it. no new people will come, and old people won't want to hold their coins or buy more when they will be losing value every day. big crash in inevitable.

Quite a good description of the long bear market we had in 2011.

[Wuji]

How will market react when MtGox reopens trade?

http://slickzine.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Tsar-bomb%E2%80%A6-Worlds-largest-Neuclear-Bomb-ever-tested..gif

[seleme]

It can go to 5$, I'm not moving my BTC to fiat.

I want to generate more bitcoins for future by trading, don't care about my initial investment and value of my coins at this time.

It's a money I've said goodbye at moment I invested it and all I want from it is more bitcoins - my time at right price will come

[notthepuma]

what do you think?

http://www.shouldibuybitcoins.com/

[Wuji]

what do you think?

http://www.shouldibuybitcoins.com/

Yesterday this site it said Yes you should buy.  There are different types of investors and if you like long term pain without no short term gain I'd recommend listening to this site's advice.

[Rampion]

It can go to 5$, I'm not moving my BTC to fiat.

I want to generate more bitcoins for future by trading, don't care about my initial investment and value of my coins at this time.

It's a money I've said goodbye at moment I invested it and all I want from it is more bitcoins - my time at right price will come

You are a smart man, and you are the future of bitcoin, not the speculators.

And btw: I'm quite sure that the weakest point of BTC is its vulnerability to speculation. Sure, FBIA cannot effectively attack the p2p network or wipe out the technology, but the FED can pump and dump and pump and dump and pump and dump... effectively ruining the lives of a lot of people. And there goes your store of value.

[jinni]

Personally I don't care much whether the price goes up or down. I simply try to transfer as much of my paycheck as possible into BTC and hold, hold, hold.

I'm not enough of a trader to predict short-term prices. All I know is that the narrative of BTC is so logical that it is the only rational choice. Of course, with all the FUD that's being spread around it might take years for most people to penetrate the media hype and grasp that. In the meantime I know that every BTC I buy will be worth more in the future, no matter what I pay for it.

If I had heard about BTC in 2011 and bought at the peak, even now after the recent crash I would have still have a 100% gain.

As for where the price will go after Gox opens again, I assume that with my luck it will probably hit $300 before my fiat deposit is accepted (I don't buy at Gox). But if I'm lucky, the guys at Mt. Lag are continuing their incompetence streak and the lag will depress the market long enough for me to get my next transfer through and buy more BTC.

[Minor Miner]

You mean flash crash and then immediately back to +$200? Or you are saying that those who sold at 160btc will be queing up to buy like crazy at $123.40 (Gox last price)?

Why would anyone queue to buy at $123.40 when they can buy at $88 right now on another exchange?

No they CANNOT.   Explain to me how I can buy 10,000 USD of bitcoin RIGHT NOW on any other exchange?  You would have to have an account open with them AND have USD sitting in that account.

If you know me, you can. You will have to send me 100% of the amount in BTC as a guarantee. I can buy in any exchange as I have money in all of them. For a fee, of course. The ones doing this will make a killing tomorrow as they did today, irrespective of what happens to the price.

I don't believe it will go sub-$20. I am not the only arbitrageur out there. Everybody wants bitcoins. If you don't believe me, sell yours to me.

You have the trade I say cannot be done backwards.   I am saying for people that believe in bitcoin and have CASH (fiat), you CANNOT get that cash into one of these exchanges in quantity to BUY bitcoin.   But, you CAN move BTC quickly and SELL it.   That makes the selling pressure high.   Great buying opportunity that we can just sit and watch....

[rpietila]

You realize that at current price, the new bitcoins generated per day, will be worth a mere $75,000.


There is no chance in hell that price would go to $10 for any time over 60 seconds if any exchange is able to take orders. It would mean $15,000 per day.

Seriously now.

[dr_nix]

If you know me, you can. You will have to send me 100% of the amount in BTC as a guarantee. I can buy in any exchange as I have money in all of them. For a fee, of course. The ones doing this will make a killing tomorrow as they did today, irrespective of what happens to the price.

I don't believe it will go sub-$20. I am not the only arbitrageur out there. Everybody wants bitcoins. If you don't believe me, sell yours to me.

So, why aren't you buying with all your fiat in all exchanges right now? Are you thinking it will be even lower or are you strictly arbitraging?

[Gordonium]

This is so exciting. Anything can happen when  MtGox reopens trade.

[alexh]

There are trades slowly going on on mtgox...?

[dontek]

is it possible to somehow transfer $ from gox account , to other exchange right now ?

Here's my question though, and it may be a dumb question, but going to ask anyways...

Those people who are panic selling right now and have their BitCoins in MTGOX, right now they can transfer those BTCs out of MTGOX. Why would they wait until MTGOX came back up to sell? Why wouldn't they just transfer their BTC's out now and go sell them on a different exchange if they are needing to "get out immediately"?

Are people just not aware they can do that? If you're in a panic, wouldn't you try and unload your BTCs now instead of waiting for MTGOX to come back up?

That's why I am wondering if when it comes back up, if there is going to be a shit load of buying going on or selling. If it were me and I was needing to recoup my "rent money" or whatever funds that I couldn't afford to lose, I'd be moving them to a different exchange ASAP and unloading them while I still could.

[The-Real-Link]

I could log onto my Gox account earlier and aside from the big red "trading halted" notification, it appears the account was fine.  I presume you could move coins out but I didn't try anything.

[dontek]

is it possible to somehow transfer $ from gox account , to other exchange right now ?

Here's my question though, and it may be a dumb question, but going to ask anyways...

Those people who are panic selling right now and have their BitCoins in MTGOX, right now they can transfer those BTCs out of MTGOX. Why would they wait until MTGOX came back up to sell? Why wouldn't they just transfer their BTC's out now and go sell them on a different exchange if they are needing to "get out immediately"?

Are people just not aware they can do that? If you're in a panic, wouldn't you try and unload your BTCs now instead of waiting for MTGOX to come back up?

That's why I am wondering if when it comes back up, if there is going to be a shit load of buying going on or selling. If it were me and I was needing to recoup my "rent money" or whatever funds that I couldn't afford to lose, I'd be moving them to a different exchange ASAP and unloading them while I still could.

withdrawal limits

True. However, I am guessing that the majority that are selling off right now and are panicking don't have over 100BTC to withdraw? Maybe I am wrong, but it seems as if over the past 2 weeks there was a major influx of people buying. With prices over the $75-$100/mark, they would have been investing $7500+. How many of the "Get Rich Quick" folks plunked down enough $ to cover 100BTC in that short of time? I dunno, maybe I am wrong and people REALLY WERE that stupid to invest their life savings into it. I was guessing that more people probably did a few hundred dollars. Money that was meant for their rent or car payment or monthly bills. Are people who have been in the game for years selling off in a panic? Why would they be doing so during a crash? Even if the price drops to $50BTC, they're still holding more than they did when they invested. I dunno, just sitting here bored since everything is pretty much frozen and was wondering why people aren't cashing out through other exchanges if they are needing whatever is left of their money asap.

I am sitting here wondering how low it will go. I am not going to let this scare me off like it obviously has 10's of thousands of other people who freaked over the last few days. I am going to sit here for the long haul. I'm looking more at months and years rather than days.