Guy loses 240-600 BTC trying to short

[oblomov]

https://twitter.com/whalecalls/status/815598251319640064

Okcoin $BTCUSD Quarterly futures has liquidated a short position of 47857 contract at 1,065.58 - 2017-01-02 00:38:56

I tried to warm my friends on IRC about the dangers of shorting, but they wouldn't listen.. they think they can time the market, when this is impossible, you can only look forward to trying to predict the fundamentals, and the fundamentals are clearly telling us to buy and hold long term. People that bought every dip instead of trying to be the smartass that tries to short has made massive gains this year.

On the bright side, somebody made 240-600 BTC from taking the other side of this trade.

[BitFinnese]

I think it is best to short if you are from the future and you have the printout or the copy of Bitcoin trading history because you know the transition point and effectively short on it and buy back at the start of the uptrend after the decline in price, else it would be very risky just what happened to the person sampled by OP.  Shorting is almost the same as gambling because you don't have any strong reference that the price will go down just your instinct.

[adzino]

I think it is best to short if you are from the future and you have the printout or the copy of Bitcoin trading history because you know the transition point and effectively short on it and buy back at the start of the uptrend after the decline in price, else it would be very risky just what happened to the person sampled by OP.  Shorting is almost the same as gambling because you don't have any strong reference that the price will go down just your instinct.

If he is from the future and he changes the past won't he end up changing the future? He might end up getting stuck in a so called fictionally ontological paradox aka casual loop!

[deisik]

I think it is best to short if you are from the future and you have the printout or the copy of Bitcoin trading history because you know the transition point and effectively short on it and buy back at the start of the uptrend after the decline in price, else it would be very risky just what happened to the person sampled by OP.  Shorting is almost the same as gambling because you don't have any strong reference that the price will go down just your instinct.

This evidently won't work

At least, not in the way you think. When you start using your printout, you will inadvertently change the future. You may claim that if you trade some small bitcoins (without being too greedy), the future price will not change much, but this is only an assumption since however small impacts may have however big consequences (see the Butterfly Effect). Regarding that poor guy, he may not be that poor as we might think of him. Before the Bitfinex hack (two days before, to be precise), someone had been heavily shorting Bitcoin too, so we may have just witnessed a failed attempt at hacking some major exchange (or it simply hasn't yet come to light)

[BitFinnese]

I think it is best to short if you are from the future and you have the printout or the copy of Bitcoin trading history because you know the transition point and effectively short on it and buy back at the start of the uptrend after the decline in price, else it would be very risky just what happened to the person sampled by OP.  Shorting is almost the same as gambling because you don't have any strong reference that the price will go down just your instinct.

This evidently won't work

At least, not in the way you think. When you start using your printout, you will inadvertently change the future. You may claim that if you trade some small bitcoins (without being too greedy), the future price will not change much, but this is only an assumption since however small impacts may have however big consequences (see the Butterfly Effect). Regarding that poor guy, he may not be that poor as we might think of him. Before the Bitfinex hack (two days before, to be precise), someone had been heavily shorting Bitcoin too, so we may just have witnessed a failed attempt at hacking some major exchange (or it simply hasn't yet come to light)

I do agree but well this is just an example of how hard it is if we are trying to do short trades.  The outcome is always uncertain.  More likely a gamble in our part,  and I think it is better to do Binary option trading than shorting.  What do you think? 

[darkangel11]

He didn't lose the money, he just sold and got nothing from it. He lost what he could've gained, money he never had in hand.
You could say you lost as well, because a week ago you could've sold everything you had, put money in bitcoin and profit.

I think it is best to short if you are from the future and you have the printout or the copy of Bitcoin trading history because you know the transition point and effectively short on it and buy back at the start of the uptrend after the decline in price, else it would be very risky just what happened to the person sampled by OP.  Shorting is almost the same as gambling because you don't have any strong reference that the price will go down just your instinct.

On the contrary I'd go long on bitcoin at any point in history.

[Xester]

Shorting is a kind of game not suitable for bitcoin but it could be very useful in other altcoins. Bitcoins characteristics being the prototype cryptocurrency is unlike any other alternative coins in the market. Bitcoin should be hold and dont sell in a very short span of time if you want to profit from the price inflation that happens all the time. It is also true that many have gain large profit from holding their bitcoins and I have the same view as I am saving some amounts in case a skyrocket price happens.

[Chinesegandalf]

Tell to your friends if they wanna sell, sell at 1200$. Now Bitcoin still wandering around looking for his new head( resistance) "my 2cent".
Long live the great BITCOIN !

[Huge Black Woman]

Ah laugh at these fools who tryin' ta short dick the whole market.  Y'all playin' wit fire over a swimmin' poo filled wit gasoline!  Don't thank the market is nowhere near as inflatimagated as some o' these people thinks.  You all can lose yo shirt, pants, an' RayBan sunglasses in this a here market.  No way I'm gon' short bitcoin right now.  Everrbody buyin' now.  There no limit ta how much y'all could lose.

[Shiroslullaby]

Is it too late to nominate Huge Black Woman as the best account of 2016?
Every post is hilarious. Hats off to you friend. Keep up the good work!

[ethereumhunter]

Bad period for short position. I suppose that he thought the price will fall because it's going up for a long time now but there are no actual signs for this so he made the wrong decision. This was more hazard them rational decision and that costs him but he learned something for the future.

maybe if the bitcoin price is really give true signal and then getting down, we can short but for now, while the price is increase, i think its not good for short. its hard to make decision about short or not if we don't know and don't see the chart and the sign, so its a worth lesson for us to learn and i hope we don't have this experience like that guy.

[X7]

That's quite a position to take in this strong rally, there will always be that guy who tries to call the top. It is just glorified gambling with a plethora of justifications from every individual who does it.

[Omega Weapon]

https://twitter.com/whalecalls/status/815598251319640064

Okcoin $BTCUSD Quarterly futures has liquidated a short position of 47857 contract at 1,065.58 - 2017-01-02 00:38:56

I tried to warm my friends on IRC about the dangers of shorting, but they wouldn't listen.. they think they can time the market, when this is impossible, you can only look forward to trying to predict the fundamentals, and the fundamentals are clearly telling us to buy and hold long term. People that bought every dip instead of trying to be the smartass that tries to short has made massive gains this year.

What a terrible trade, but people like this try to play it smart, to be more intelligent than anyone and end up fooling only themselves, if instead this person just bought bitcoin he will be enjoying easy profits.

[deisik]

He didn't lose the money, he just sold and got nothing from it. He lost what he could've gained, money he never had in hand.
You could say you lost as well, because a week ago you could've sold everything you had, put money in bitcoin and profit

Mate, are you serious?

If he didn't lose any money, who has profited then? Shorting means that he first had to borrow bitcoins (read pay interest on borrowed funds), then he sold the borrowed bitcoins hoping that the price will fall (it is called a short sell). When the price actually went up, he had to buy back all the bitcoins he had sold earlier, at a higher price. Doesn't it mean that to buy back the same number of bitcoins he had to pay more dollars? And that would constitute his loss (you can calculate the losses in bitcoins if you wish). If the price went down (as the dude expected), he would again buy back the bitcoins, now at a lower price with less dollars, and the difference would make up his profit (you can count the profits in bitcoins as well)

[Amph]

He didn't lose the money, he just sold and got nothing from it. He lost what he could've gained, money he never had in hand.
You could say you lost as well, because a week ago you could've sold everything you had, put money in bitcoin and profit

Mate, are you serious?

If he didn't lose any money, who has profited then? Shorting means that he first had to borrow bitcoins (read pay interest on borrowed funds), then he sold the borrowed bitcoins hoping that the price will fall (it is called short sell). When the price actually went up, he had to buy back all the bitcoins he had sold earlier, at a higher price. Doesn't it mean that to buy back the same number of bitcoins he had to pay more dollars? And that would constitute his loss (you can calculate the losses in bitcoins if you wish). If the price went down (as the dude expected), he would again buy back the bitcoins, now at a lower price with less dollars, and the difference would make up his profit (you can count the profits in bitcoins as well)

not really maybe he had those bitcoin, i mean those bitcoin were owned by him, and he was shorting(which is stupid, with a bull market) to make even more

so right now he simply can not re enter the market anymore without losing, but he can keep the funds and go away

[deisik]

He didn't lose the money, he just sold and got nothing from it. He lost what he could've gained, money he never had in hand.
You could say you lost as well, because a week ago you could've sold everything you had, put money in bitcoin and profit

Mate, are you serious?

If he didn't lose any money, who has profited then? Shorting means that he first had to borrow bitcoins (read pay interest on borrowed funds), then he sold the borrowed bitcoins hoping that the price will fall (it is called short sell). When the price actually went up, he had to buy back all the bitcoins he had sold earlier, at a higher price. Doesn't it mean that to buy back the same number of bitcoins he had to pay more dollars? And that would constitute his loss (you can calculate the losses in bitcoins if you wish). If the price went down (as the dude expected), he would again buy back the bitcoins, now at a lower price with less dollars, and the difference would make up his profit (you can count the profits in bitcoins as well)

not really maybe he had those bitcoin, i mean those bitcoin were owned by him, and he was shorting(which is stupid, with a bull market) to make even more

so right now he simply can not re enter the market anymore without losing, but he can keep the funds and go away

Did you read the OP (and the twitter post linked in it)?

If he sold his own funds, it wouldn't be a short sell in the first place. It would be just a sell, as what thousands people are doing on a regular basis every day. If you read the opening post, you would get an idea that it was a futures market where you buy and sell contracts, not actual bitcoins. The only way he could sell a futures contract without going short is when he bought it before and sold it later thus closing his position either at a loss or profit. In this case, it would be profit, not loss, since the price is going up

[epitome]

Shorting is a kind of game not suitable for bitcoin but it could be very useful in other altcoins. Bitcoins characteristics being the prototype cryptocurrency is unlike any other alternative coins in the market. Bitcoin should be hold and dont sell in a very short span of time if you want to profit from the price inflation that happens all the time. It is also true that many have gain large profit from holding their bitcoins and I have the same view as I am saving some amounts in case a skyrocket price happens.

How can short selling be safe with other alt currencies.Future trading is a big risk in this unregulated market and the price can be manipulated without any specific reasons and with this sole factor i would suggest everyone to stop doing these sort of things.

[qiwoman2]

WOW that is a terrible loss but I think many have done it because they never ever would have believed that bitcoin could ever reach these kind of highs. I knew about bitcoin when it was a dollar and am forever kicking myself that I didn't buy a few hundred. if I had a few hundred bitcoin now my whole life would be sorted. 

[Barbut]

Shorting is a kind of game not suitable for bitcoin but it could be very useful in other altcoins. Bitcoins characteristics being the prototype cryptocurrency is unlike any other alternative coins in the market. Bitcoin should be hold and dont sell in a very short span of time if you want to profit from the price inflation that happens all the time. It is also true that many have gain large profit from holding their bitcoins and I have the same view as I am saving some amounts in case a skyrocket price happens.

How can short selling be safe with other alt currencies.Future trading is a big risk in this unregulated market and the price can be manipulated without any specific reasons and with this sole factor i would suggest everyone to stop doing these sort of things.

In the past many traders make a good profit with shorting. It`s not connected or more useful just with other altcoins. It`s more about feeling a moment when to sell when to hold, when to buy. This three things makes one man a good trader I think.
Just a year ago when I was here, price moving was ideal for shorting. This summer we had situation when bitcoin was above 700 $ and then drop back to 500 $, that is also ideal times for shorting. I think we can see this again, just how to notice this before it happens?

[pitham1]

Shorting is a kind of game not suitable for bitcoin but it could be very useful in other altcoins. Bitcoins characteristics being the prototype cryptocurrency is unlike any other alternative coins in the market. Bitcoin should be hold and dont sell in a very short span of time if you want to profit from the price inflation that happens all the time. It is also true that many have gain large profit from holding their bitcoins and I have the same view as I am saving some amounts in case a skyrocket price happens.

How can short selling be safe with other alt currencies.Future trading is a big risk in this unregulated market and the price can be manipulated without any specific reasons and with this sole factor i would suggest everyone to stop doing these sort of things.

In the past many traders make a good profit with shorting. It`s not connected or more useful just with other altcoins. It`s more about feeling a moment when to sell when to hold, when to buy. This three things makes one man a good trader I think.
Just a year ago when I was here, price moving was ideal for shorting. This summer we had situation when bitcoin was above 700 $ and then drop back to 500 $, that is also ideal times for shorting. I think we can see this again, just how to notice this before it happens?

It is always easier in hindsight to know the correct time to short. People might have expected a pullback from $700 to $500 levels and hence decided to short. Unfortunately, they got the direction wrong and incurred huge losses.