[Filled] PROP BET: Bitcoin crashes harder when Mt Gox reopens

[IveBeenBit]

OK degenerates: I have BTC1.5 that says the price will crash harder when Gox reopens for trading. Can I get action?

Terms:
Mt Gox will reopen for trading in a few hours at 0200 UTC (10PM EST). They say their servers are bigger and better than ever.

I say the price will drop below $57/coin and stay there for at least 4 hours. The drop below $57 will happen within 24 hours of Gox reopening. If the price goes below the "strike price," and climbs back up, I can still win the bet if the price goes back down. If the price goes below $57 at hour 23, I can still win, but the price still needs to stay there for four hours.

Weird-ass orders where BTC0.02 get executed above $57 will not reset the game clock. We're betting on the market crashing or not; I don't want to quibble technicalities.

I'll send some PMs to see if I can find an escrow/referee and will update the thread when that happens.

In the meantime - would anyone give me action on this?

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[danieldaniel]

Hmm... Could I do $20 paypal USD for that?  I could convert it to BTC if you want, but it might take a few hours for me to pay you.

So, $20 in BTC.  Would that work for you?  If so, I'd like for there to be a GPG signed contract with those terms.  We'll post them in this thread.

[dooglus]

OK degenerates: I have BTC1.5 that says the price will crash harder when Gox reopens for trading. Can I get action?

Terms:
Mt Gox will reopen for trading in a few hours at 0200 UTC (10PM EST). They say their servers are bigger and better than ever.

I say the price will drop below $57/coin and stay there for at least 4 hours. The drop below $57 will happen within 24 hours of Gox reopening. If the price goes below the "strike price," and climbs back up, I can still win the bet if the price goes back down. If the price goes below $57 at hour 23, I can still win, but the price still needs to stay there for four hours.

Weird-ass orders where BTC0.02 get executed above $57 will not reset the game clock. We're betting on the market crashing or not; I don't want to quibble technicalities.

I'll send some PMs to see if I can find an escrow/referee and will update the thread when that happens.

I can escrow the bet for you, using casascius' escrow tool.  I'd need clearer terms than "weird-ass orders" though.  What if 0.03 gets traded above $57?  Is that weird-ass or not?  I'm going to need a definition for 'weird ass'.

I don't think Gox executes trades above the lowest ask price any more, so I would think you should be happy to just have "no trades over $57 for any 4 hour period which starts within 24 hours of 10PM EST today" as your win condition.  If a buyer pushes the price up to $57.01 for a split second (by buying up all the asks under that price) then the clock is reset.  Fair enough?

Edit: I never used to be able to remember how to spell casascius (and neither could whoever printed the first coin holograms), until I read recently that casas is an acronym for "call a spade a spade".  Now it's easy.

[blockbet.net]

I'll take that bet. Let me know how you want to handle it.

[blockbet.net]

I'd take that bet. How do you want to handle it?

[edit] Sorry for the double.

[edit2] I haven't heard anything, I guess the bet's off.

[IveBeenBit]

Hmm... Could I do $20 paypal USD for that?  I could convert it to BTC if you want, but it might take a few hours for me to pay you.

So, $20 in BTC.  Would that work for you?  If so, I'd like for there to be a GPG signed contract with those terms.  We'll post them in this thread.

Bet must be denominated in Bitcoin. Nobody knows what $20 in BTC is. Do you have any bitcoins to bet? If you don't want to do the full BTC1.5, post anyways and maybe someone will take up the slack.

[IveBeenBit]

I can escrow the bet for you, using casascius' escrow tool.  I'd need clearer terms than "weird-ass orders" though.  What if 0.03 gets traded above $57?  Is that weird-ass or not?  I'm going to need a definition for 'weird ass'.

I don't think Gox executes trades above the lowest ask price any more, so I would think you should be happy to just have "no trades over $57 for any 4 hour period which starts within 24 hours of 10PM EST today" as your win condition.  If a buyer pushes the price up to $57.01 for a split second (by buying up all the asks under that price) then the clock is reset.  Fair enough?

Edit: I never used to be able to remember how to spell casascius (and neither could whoever printed the first coin holograms), until I read recently that casas is an acronym for "call a spade a spade".  Now it's easy.

Here's the problem...yesterday during the crash the bid/ask spreads got to be HUGE. So you'd see a ton of coins traded at $140, then some dummy would put a market buy order in and the next trade would be at $170 and then straight back down to $140-range. That is what I mean by "weirdass." Does that make it any clearer?

[danieldaniel]

Hmm... Could I do $20 paypal USD for that?  I could convert it to BTC if you want, but it might take a few hours for me to pay you.

So, $20 in BTC.  Would that work for you?  If so, I'd like for there to be a GPG signed contract with those terms.  We'll post them in this thread.

Bet must be denominated in Bitcoin. Nobody knows what $20 in BTC is. Do you have any bitcoins to bet? If you don't want to do the full BTC1.5, post anyways and maybe someone will take up the slack.

Uhhh... $20 in BTC is exactly what it says it is.  $20 in BTC at the time I pay you.  So, 20/MTGOXLast

[IveBeenBit]

I'd take that bet. How do you want to handle it?

[edit] Sorry for the double.

[edit2] I haven't heard anything, I guess the bet's off.

I'm waiting to get Dooglus's agreement. He seemed to have a problem with the terms. I'm not sure if my explanation will satisfy him or not.

In case he doesn't come back...does anyone else think they're qualified to judge/escrow?

[danieldaniel]

I'd take that bet. How do you want to handle it?

[edit] Sorry for the double.

[edit2] I haven't heard anything, I guess the bet's off.

I'm waiting to get Dooglus's agreement. He seemed to have a problem with the terms. I'm not sure if my explanation will satisfy him or not.

In case he doesn't come back...does anyone else think they're qualified to judge/escrow?

I could do the escrow-ing if you can't find anyone else. 

You can see my ratings here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=danieldaniel&sign=ANY&type=RECV.  They're all positive except for two negatives from scammers.

[IveBeenBit]

I could do the escrow-ing if you can't find anyone else. 

You can see my ratings here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=danieldaniel&sign=ANY&type=RECV.  They're all positive except for two negatives from scammers.

You're honest enough. Do you understand the terms? The sticking point with Dooglus was/is the oddball trade that goes through that's way out of line with the rest of the trades happening at the time.

If the answer to that is "yes" and blockbet.net agrees, then we're on.

[danieldaniel]

I could do the escrow-ing if you can't find anyone else. 

You can see my ratings here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=danieldaniel&sign=ANY&type=RECV.  They're all positive except for two negatives from scammers.

You're honest enough. Do you understand the terms? The sticking point with Dooglus was/is the oddball trade that goes through that's way out of line with the rest of the trades happening at the time.

If the answer to that is "yes" and blockbet.net agrees, then we're on.

Ok.  Just to be clear, would the following work:
Look at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv (24 Hour chart with hourly points).  If it goes under $57 for at least 4 points (4 hours), you win.  Otherwise, blockbet.net wins.

That good for you?  If so, my answer is "yes".

[blockbet.net]

I'm fine with that. Either way, it probably won't be that close.

[IveBeenBit]

Ok.  Just to be clear, would the following work:
Look at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv (24 Hour chart with hourly points).  If it goes under $57 for at least 4 points (4 hours), you win.  Otherwise, blockbet.net wins.

That good for you?  If so, my answer is "yes".

I can't think of a better way to do it, so yeah that works for me. If I win I'll send you a bitnickel.

Waiting on confirmation from blockbet.net. Waiting for escrow address.

Danieldaniel how about you post an address?

[danieldaniel]

I'm fine with that. Either way, it probably won't be that close.

Ok.  IveBeenBit, is what I said OK with you?

[IveBeenBit]

I'm fine with that. Either way, it probably won't be that close.

Ok.  IveBeenBit, is what I said OK with you?

Yes, do it. Waiting on escrow address.

[danieldaniel]

I'm fine with that. Either way, it probably won't be that close.

Ok.  IveBeenBit, is what I said OK with you?

Yes, do it. Waiting on escrow address.

1AwtH4Gs4uE3Sg2fpHEUehyDNn48FUPwx2

IveBeenBit: Can you send 1.50001 or something, just so I know it's yours?

Blockbet.net: You can just send 1.5.

[blockbet.net]

Mine sent. Thanks danieldaniel for the help!

[danieldaniel]

Mine sent. Thanks danieldaniel for the help!

I got both of them!  I will be looking at the aforementioned chart at 7:25 tomorrow! 

[IveBeenBit]

IveBeenBit: Can you send 1.50001 or something, just so I know it's yours?

Blockbet.net: You can just send 1.5.

Shipped BTC1.000057.  

Thank you daniel daniel and blockbet. Let's have fun.

And let the good times roll!

[danieldaniel]

IveBeenBit: Can you send 1.50001 or something, just so I know it's yours?

Blockbet.net: You can just send 1.5.

Shipped BTC1.000057.  

Thank you daniel daniel and blockbet. Let's have fun.

And let the good times roll!

Reminded me of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_7Rzty6xjg.

Love is nice when it's understood... Even nicer when it makes you feel good!
You got me trippin' why our love is old....
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!

[danieldaniel]

IveBeenBit: Can you send 1.50001 or something, just so I know it's yours?

Blockbet.net: You can just send 1.5.

Shipped BTC1.000057.  

Thank you daniel daniel and blockbet. Let's have fun.

And let the good times roll!

Reminded me of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_7Rzty6xjg.

Love is nice when it's understood... Even nicer when it makes you feel good!
You got me trippin' why our love is old....
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!
Come on baby, let the GOOD TIMES ROLL!

[IveBeenBit]

Depending on the exchange - coins are going anywhere from $75-99 right now. What madness! 

[dooglus]

Sorry, I've been offline for a couple of hours.  I came back to check if you guys still needed an escrow, with plenty of time before Gox reopens, but I see you've already got it sorted out.

If there's a crazy-ass spread, then there will be lots of trades on both sides of the spread.  If the spread spans your target price, I'd count that as a loss, since trades will happen both above and below your price.

I sure hope the price doesn't collapse when Gox reopens.  I'm betting significantly more than 1.5 BTC on that... 

[blockbet.net]

Well, this is interesting. MtGox seems to be down again.

[dooglus]

Well, this is interesting. MtGox seems to be down again.

What if MtGox is down for significant periods of the bet's 24 hours?  That helps the price not drop below $57.  What if there's a single trade below $57 and then MtGox is down for 4 hours?  Is that 4 hours below $57?

It's looking like the price is staying above $57 for now, so hopefully that won't be an issue, but what if?

[blockbet.net]

MtGox is back up. We can add a few more hours to the clock if that's okay, I'm quite confident that it won't go below the minimum.

[danieldaniel]

MtGox is back up. We can add a few more hours to the clock if that's okay, I'm quite confident that it won't go below the minimum.

Just so I can make sure to do this correctly, what time, exactly, did it go back up?

[blockbet.net]

I'm not sure, but I posted my message soon after I saw it back online. I suppose total downtime was maybe 1-2 hours.

[danieldaniel]

I'm not sure, but I posted my message soon after I saw it back online. I suppose total downtime was maybe 1-2 hours.

Ok.  What time do you want to end the clock?  Is 12 tonight good?  IveBeenBtc: If you can confirm this when he says it, that would be cool.

BTW, I'm not going to be awake then, so I'll check it first thing in the morning.

[danieldaniel]

Alright, one problem: I'm going out of town tomorrow.  I can wake up early and finish the escrow transaction, but I need both of your Bitcoin addresses now in case you're not here tomorrow morning.

Please either post them here or PM me with them.

[blockbet.net]

We can add two hours to the clock, so I'd suggest to end it at 04 UTC. I'm quite certain that at this point, it won't drop below $57 (apart from a few minor transactions), during the weekend, and hopefully never.

If I win and there are no issues, you can send it to 1NPR4t6saVWuJMt9UmaGk5DLfTsqoMFazc. Feel free to take 0.1 BTC as a thank you for helping us out, so send 2.9 BTC any time you're free to do so, no hurry.

[danieldaniel]

We can add two hours to the clock, so I'd suggest to end it at 04 UTC. I'm quite certain that at this point, it won't drop below $57 (apart from a few minor transactions), during the weekend, and hopefully never.

If I win and there are no issues, you can send it to 1NPR4t6saVWuJMt9UmaGk5DLfTsqoMFazc. Feel free to take 0.1 BTC as a thank you for helping us out, so send 2.9 BTC any time you're free to do so, no hurry.

So 12 PM EST.  Thanks

[IveBeenBit]

Looks like the real crash is taking longer to happen than I first thought. It's not looking good for my bet. Hehehe.

I think Gox was down ~2 hours. So we'll officially conclude at midnight Eastern time.

You can use the same address that I sent to you if the price suddenly tanks. I'll have limited Internet access this weekend, but I'll catch up with everything on Monday.

Since I'm almost certain I'm going to lose: Congratulations blockbet, and thanks DD for handling escrow.

[danieldaniel]

On my escrow address, it says I sent 1.5 btc to someone.  It was actually only some of my personal BTC, but it sent it from that address instead of the one with my personal BTC.  I still have the full 3 Bitcoins.

http://grab.by/lAKI

[danieldaniel]

Looks like the real crash is taking longer to happen than I first thought. It's not looking good for my bet. Hehehe.

I think Gox was down ~2 hours. So we'll officially conclude at midnight Eastern time.

You can use the same address that I sent to you if the price suddenly tanks. I'll have limited Internet access this weekend, but I'll catch up with everything on Monday.

Since I'm almost certain I'm going to lose: Congratulations blockbet, and thanks DD for handling escrow.

Hey,
Would you mind if I send the 3 BTC to blockbet.net now, so I don't have to send it to him at 4 AM tomorrow? 

If you don't feel comfortable with that, it's perfectly fine (and I'll send it to him tomorrow), but I'd figure it can't hurt to ask. 

[IveBeenBit]

DD if you have places to go, then send blockbet his winnings. I have 4 1/2 hours left and will need the price to go down 50% to win.

If something really strange happens and I win, then I hope that blockbet would settle up with me. But the chance of that is so small that I don't mind if you pay out now.

Thanks again.

Blockbet - congratulations. I'll get you next time!   

[danieldaniel]

DD if you have places to go, then send blockbet his winnings. I have 4 1/2 hours left and will need the price to go down 50% to win.

If something really strange happens and I win, then I hope that blockbet would settle up with me. But the chance of that is so small that I don't mind if you pay out now.

Thanks again.

Blockbet - congratulations. I'll get you next time!    

You're great!  I'll send him his winnings now, then.

Congratulations blockbet!  Transaction ID: 3efc5f5adfa4b7b7a1749baaa0d887f30edd050297cc8665262215337cec7b34

[cul]

Blockbet - congratulations. I'll get you next time!   

not with those kind of bets you won't. I joined this forum just to try and get a slice of your bet but I was newbie restricted. your bet is a scaled down version of betting money on the world to end. if you win its immaterial. in this example if you win your bet you won 1.5 units of something losing value and if you lose the bet its 1.5 units of the same thing appreciating in value. The more "right" you are the less your bet is worth. how do you ever want to be on the other end of that?

[tolan77]

Blockbet - congratulations. I'll get you next time!   

not with those kind of bets you won't. I joined this forum just to try and get a slice of your bet but I was newbie restricted. your bet is a scaled down version of betting money on the world to end. if you win its immaterial. in this example if you win your bet you won 1.5 units of something losing value and if you lose the bet its 1.5 units of the same thing appreciating in value. The more "right" you are the less your bet is worth. how do you ever want to be on the other end of that?

It is kind of contradictory but he probably doesn't believe it'll stay decreasing(e.g. the world ending) and it might be a 'fun' way for him to pick up some coins instead of buying them.He was more betting on the insanity of the selloff when gox reopened than bitcoin staying down.

[dooglus]

The more "right" you are the less your bet is worth. how do you ever want to be on the other end of that?

I asked him that in PM, and said that if he was that sure the price was going down he should sell at $70 on one of the exchanges that were up while Gox was down.

He told me that he wanted to sell but didn't have an account on any of the exchanges that were up at the time.

I guess if you're sure the price is going to halve and you have no way of selling then betting that it will halve is a good way of protecting yourself.  If you're right you end up with twice as many coins so you've lost nothing.

[blockbet.net]

I have the payment, thanks for the bet!

[Zaih]

Bad luck mate!!

[IveBeenBit]

not with those kind of bets you won't. I joined this forum just to try and get a slice of your bet

Welcome to the forum! 

[cul]

not with those kind of bets you won't. I joined this forum just to try and get a slice of your bet

Welcome to the forum! 

thanks!