[Filled] PROP BET: Bitcoin crashes harder when Mt Gox reopens

[IveBeenBit]

OK degenerates: I have BTC1.5 that says the price will crash harder when Gox reopens for trading. Can I get action?

Terms:
Mt Gox will reopen for trading in a few hours at 0200 UTC (10PM EST). They say their servers are bigger and better than ever.

I say the price will drop below $57/coin and stay there for at least 4 hours. The drop below $57 will happen within 24 hours of Gox reopening. If the price goes below the "strike price," and climbs back up, I can still win the bet if the price goes back down. If the price goes below $57 at hour 23, I can still win, but the price still needs to stay there for four hours.

Weird-ass orders where BTC0.02 get executed above $57 will not reset the game clock. We're betting on the market crashing or not; I don't want to quibble technicalities.

I'll send some PMs to see if I can find an escrow/referee and will update the thread when that happens.

In the meantime - would anyone give me action on this?

[danieldaniel]

Hmm... Could I do $20 paypal USD for that?  I could convert it to BTC if you want, but it might take a few hours for me to pay you.

So, $20 in BTC.  Would that work for you?  If so, I'd like for there to be a GPG signed contract with those terms.  We'll post them in this thread.

[dooglus]

OK degenerates: I have BTC1.5 that says the price will crash harder when Gox reopens for trading. Can I get action?

Terms:
Mt Gox will reopen for trading in a few hours at 0200 UTC (10PM EST). They say their servers are bigger and better than ever.

I say the price will drop below $57/coin and stay there for at least 4 hours. The drop below $57 will happen within 24 hours of Gox reopening. If the price goes below the "strike price," and climbs back up, I can still win the bet if the price goes back down. If the price goes below $57 at hour 23, I can still win, but the price still needs to stay there for four hours.

Weird-ass orders where BTC0.02 get executed above $57 will not reset the game clock. We're betting on the market crashing or not; I don't want to quibble technicalities.

I'll send some PMs to see if I can find an escrow/referee and will update the thread when that happens.

I can escrow the bet for you, using casascius' escrow tool.  I'd need clearer terms than "weird-ass orders" though.  What if 0.03 gets traded above $57?  Is that weird-ass or not?  I'm going to need a definition for 'weird ass'.

I don't think Gox executes trades above the lowest ask price any more, so I would think you should be happy to just have "no trades over $57 for any 4 hour period which starts within 24 hours of 10PM EST today" as your win condition.  If a buyer pushes the price up to $57.01 for a split second (by buying up all the asks under that price) then the clock is reset.  Fair enough?

Edit: I never used to be able to remember how to spell casascius (and neither could whoever printed the first coin holograms), until I read recently that casas is an acronym for "call a spade a spade".  Now it's easy.

[blockbet.net]

I'll take that bet. Let me know how you want to handle it.

[blockbet.net]

I'd take that bet. How do you want to handle it?

[edit] Sorry for the double.

[edit2] I haven't heard anything, I guess the bet's off.

[IveBeenBit]

Hmm... Could I do $20 paypal USD for that?  I could convert it to BTC if you want, but it might take a few hours for me to pay you.

So, $20 in BTC.  Would that work for you?  If so, I'd like for there to be a GPG signed contract with those terms.  We'll post them in this thread.

Bet must be denominated in Bitcoin. Nobody knows what $20 in BTC is. Do you have any bitcoins to bet? If you don't want to do the full BTC1.5, post anyways and maybe someone will take up the slack.

[IveBeenBit]

I can escrow the bet for you, using casascius' escrow tool.  I'd need clearer terms than "weird-ass orders" though.  What if 0.03 gets traded above $57?  Is that weird-ass or not?  I'm going to need a definition for 'weird ass'.

I don't think Gox executes trades above the lowest ask price any more, so I would think you should be happy to just have "no trades over $57 for any 4 hour period which starts within 24 hours of 10PM EST today" as your win condition.  If a buyer pushes the price up to $57.01 for a split second (by buying up all the asks under that price) then the clock is reset.  Fair enough?

Edit: I never used to be able to remember how to spell casascius (and neither could whoever printed the first coin holograms), until I read recently that casas is an acronym for "call a spade a spade".  Now it's easy.

Here's the problem...yesterday during the crash the bid/ask spreads got to be HUGE. So you'd see a ton of coins traded at $140, then some dummy would put a market buy order in and the next trade would be at $170 and then straight back down to $140-range. That is what I mean by "weirdass." Does that make it any clearer?

[danieldaniel]

Hmm... Could I do $20 paypal USD for that?  I could convert it to BTC if you want, but it might take a few hours for me to pay you.

So, $20 in BTC.  Would that work for you?  If so, I'd like for there to be a GPG signed contract with those terms.  We'll post them in this thread.

Bet must be denominated in Bitcoin. Nobody knows what $20 in BTC is. Do you have any bitcoins to bet? If you don't want to do the full BTC1.5, post anyways and maybe someone will take up the slack.

Uhhh... $20 in BTC is exactly what it says it is.  $20 in BTC at the time I pay you.  So, 20/MTGOXLast

[IveBeenBit]

I'd take that bet. How do you want to handle it?

[edit] Sorry for the double.

[edit2] I haven't heard anything, I guess the bet's off.

I'm waiting to get Dooglus's agreement. He seemed to have a problem with the terms. I'm not sure if my explanation will satisfy him or not.

In case he doesn't come back...does anyone else think they're qualified to judge/escrow?

[danieldaniel]

I'd take that bet. How do you want to handle it?

[edit] Sorry for the double.

[edit2] I haven't heard anything, I guess the bet's off.

I'm waiting to get Dooglus's agreement. He seemed to have a problem with the terms. I'm not sure if my explanation will satisfy him or not.

In case he doesn't come back...does anyone else think they're qualified to judge/escrow?

I could do the escrow-ing if you can't find anyone else. 

You can see my ratings here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=danieldaniel&sign=ANY&type=RECV.  They're all positive except for two negatives from scammers.

[IveBeenBit]

I could do the escrow-ing if you can't find anyone else. 

You can see my ratings here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=danieldaniel&sign=ANY&type=RECV.  They're all positive except for two negatives from scammers.

You're honest enough. Do you understand the terms? The sticking point with Dooglus was/is the oddball trade that goes through that's way out of line with the rest of the trades happening at the time.

If the answer to that is "yes" and blockbet.net agrees, then we're on.

[danieldaniel]

I could do the escrow-ing if you can't find anyone else. 

You can see my ratings here: http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=danieldaniel&sign=ANY&type=RECV.  They're all positive except for two negatives from scammers.

You're honest enough. Do you understand the terms? The sticking point with Dooglus was/is the oddball trade that goes through that's way out of line with the rest of the trades happening at the time.

If the answer to that is "yes" and blockbet.net agrees, then we're on.

Ok.  Just to be clear, would the following work:
Look at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv (24 Hour chart with hourly points).  If it goes under $57 for at least 4 points (4 hours), you win.  Otherwise, blockbet.net wins.

That good for you?  If so, my answer is "yes".

[blockbet.net]

I'm fine with that. Either way, it probably won't be that close.

[IveBeenBit]

Ok.  Just to be clear, would the following work:
Look at http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigHourlyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv (24 Hour chart with hourly points).  If it goes under $57 for at least 4 points (4 hours), you win.  Otherwise, blockbet.net wins.

That good for you?  If so, my answer is "yes".

I can't think of a better way to do it, so yeah that works for me. If I win I'll send you a bitnickel.

Waiting on confirmation from blockbet.net. Waiting for escrow address.

Danieldaniel how about you post an address?

[danieldaniel]

I'm fine with that. Either way, it probably won't be that close.

Ok.  IveBeenBit, is what I said OK with you?

[IveBeenBit]

I'm fine with that. Either way, it probably won't be that close.

Ok.  IveBeenBit, is what I said OK with you?

Yes, do it. Waiting on escrow address.

[danieldaniel]

I'm fine with that. Either way, it probably won't be that close.

Ok.  IveBeenBit, is what I said OK with you?

Yes, do it. Waiting on escrow address.

1AwtH4Gs4uE3Sg2fpHEUehyDNn48FUPwx2

IveBeenBit: Can you send 1.50001 or something, just so I know it's yours?

Blockbet.net: You can just send 1.5.

[blockbet.net]

Mine sent. Thanks danieldaniel for the help!

[danieldaniel]

Mine sent. Thanks danieldaniel for the help!

I got both of them!  I will be looking at the aforementioned chart at 7:25 tomorrow! 

[IveBeenBit]

IveBeenBit: Can you send 1.50001 or something, just so I know it's yours?

Blockbet.net: You can just send 1.5.

Shipped BTC1.000057.  

Thank you daniel daniel and blockbet. Let's have fun.

And let the good times roll!